Some comparisons between 2015 (the last NJ midterm), 2017 (when we had the governor election), and last night:
LD1: In 2015, the Dems won 19,140 votes to 16,818 (R), a margin of 2,322. In 2017, Dems won 30,938 to 20,445, a margin of 10,493. Last night, GOP won 25,521 to 23,098, a margin of 2,423.
LD2: In 2015, a Republican and Democrat won with over 18,000 votes each. In 2017, both Dems won, 25,683 to 20,814, a margin of 4,869. Last night, GOP won 17,906 to 17,137, a margin of 769, and apparently too close to call.
In the state senate election (1st district), Jeff Van Drew won in 2017 35,464 to 18,589, a margin of 16,875. Last night in the special election (after JVD become congressman), his replacement Dem appointee got 23,686, losing by 3,527 votes to the GOP candidate, who got 27,163 votes.
Add it all up, the off year elections in this part of South Jersey is trending GOP. In LD1, GOP went from 16k, to 20k in 2017, and 25k last night. Also in LD1 in 2017, there were about 2k people who voted GOP for state assembly but Democrat for state Senate. Last night, it was the reverse, as the GOP state Senate candidate got 2000 more votes than the assemblyman (even though the Dem got only 600 more votes in the state senate election).
It looks like the Dems in AD-02 will actually hold since the VBM ballots went heavily for them.
