IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well there is no guarantee of when that year will occur.  Really the only time having a member from a vulnerable House seat run for Senate ever works out is in a midterm of an opposing party President. 

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

That would also make the most geographic sense.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

lol at you comparing ME and IA in a presidential year to LA and IN in a massive R wave midterm year.

Trump may still win Iowa and Ernst is fairly popular.  Collins is still popular and leads generic D (which believe me always performs better than any actual D).

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

You do not know what you are talking about at all if you think Jared Golden would have a 100% chance of losing a Senate race and a 50% chance or greater of winning re-election instead.

Do you really believe that Trump will carry ME-02 by a wide margin again?

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

You do not know what you are talking about at all if you think Jared Golden would have a 100% chance of losing a Senate race and a 50% chance or greater of winning re-election instead.

Do you really believe that Trump will carry ME-02 by a wide margin again?

Is the Pope Catholic? To make my point more clear:

If a Democratic House member sits in a R+ PVI House seat that’s not trending dramatically left (like the OC seats with misleading PVI’s), there’s something like a 90% chance they will lose re-election in the next R wave. Thus it would behoove that Congressperson to run for Senate or higher office at their first opportunity if they want to continue their political careers. Because it’s very rare to find House members become entrenched in tough terrain.

It usually doesn’t work to run for Senate from a tough House seat.  Again, the only person I can think of who it worked out for is Jackie Rosen and it was in a wave year for her party.  Do you really believe Axne can win statewide in Iowa if Trump is carrying the state?

[Mr.Phips]

Axne would be the second-worst choice after Hubbell in my opinion. She reminds me a lot of him, a policy wonk with absolutely no charisma. That's not a combination that can win Iowa.

To be fair, this description pretty much fits Tom Vilsack as well.

[Mr.Phips]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

[Mr.Phips]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

Quite frankly, any Republicans who subscribes to this mentality ought to be satisfied enough that there is going to be a 6-3 conservative majority on the Superme Court to "hold Biden in check."

The level of satisfaction for Republicans regarding the Court as a means to check Biden iis mitigated by the realization that with a Trifecta, they can pack the court. The Senate thus acts as buffer to prevent that.

A 6-3 court could just find the packing unconstitutional if they wanted.