Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims? 

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

I think they will shore up IL-06 and IL-14 by stretching them into chunks of Chicago proper (both IL-01 and IL-07 can spare plenty). 

[Mr.Phips]

How will the South Carolina GOP handle SC-01? I guess Cunningham’s got an uphill climb for re-election, but if he gets lucky a second time, is there a way the legislature could make SC-01 redder without putting the other Republican seats at risk?

I'm really not sure.  There are not a whole lot more black precincts in Charleston that are not already in the sixth district, while taking Horry county from the 7th puts that district at risk.

[Mr.Phips]

I made a 14-3 Illinois map a while back, but that was under the assumption of Hultgren holding on and mashing him up with Kinzinger. There were two snake-like downstate Democratic districts and 12 Chicagoland Hillary seats. All met VRA requirements and all were at least 55% Hillary (the 12 Chicagoland seats were all at least 58% Hillary). Could probably baconstrip out Chicagoland a little more for Lauren Underwood and try to get a 15-2.

Anyway, with Florida having a Republican Governor and Fair District FL likely getting completely ignored by the new courts, Stephanie Murphy and Charlie Crist probably get screwed over. The other Democratic seats are all either VRA required or are just gonna get a lot more D with time (DMP and Shalala). If they axe Murphy, she can just run against Rubio, so that's fine with me.

Sanford Bishop's seat is also a goner.

Marcy Kaptur is a goner.

If they get rid of Marcy Kaptor, where are they gonna put Toledo and all of the heavy Dem suburbs of Cleveland?  You can't try for just one Dem seat in Toledo/Cleveland without risking the mother of all dummymanders.  With Dems only having only four seats in Ohio, Republicans are gonna have to cut out one of their own with the state losing a seat.  With the new redistricting rules, they may even have to throw Dems a compact Cincinnati seat to keep them aboard for gerrymandering the rest of the state.

[Mr.Phips]

Sanford Bishop, given his district is bleeding population and will get chopped up.

Isn't his district protected by the VRA?

It's 52% black, so yes. 

[Mr.Phips]

I hope Illinois Dems and Madigan go for something as ugly as that. Especially since Democrats are going to be on the receiving end of that in Texas, NC and GA. The howling from Republicans would be something

I loved how Illinois Republicans tried to say that the Democrats were trying to "undo the 2010 election results" in 2012 with their redistricting.  Were those Republicans saying the same thing when their party did it to Democrats in Georgia and North Carolina?

[Mr.Phips]

Kentucky's State Constitution bans splintering up KY-03. Yarmuth is complete safe unless somehow the GOP gets another Anne Northup.

Anne Northup would not win KY-03 today.

[Mr.Phips]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

Because any district that includes Minneapolis is by default Omar's sear. And if you split Minneapolis, Omar just gets the district that doesn't go to someone else (probably Dean Phillips)

Wouldn't MN Ds be punished if they passed an overly obvious gerrymander?

Were Republicans punished for doing this in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia?

[Mr.Phips]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

Because any district that includes Minneapolis is by default Omar's sear. And if you split Minneapolis, Omar just gets the district that doesn't go to someone else (probably Dean Phillips)

Wouldn't MN Ds be punished if they passed an overly obvious gerrymander?

Were Republicans punished for doing this in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia?

Question: is MN the same as MI, NC, OH, and GA?

Yeah they are all states.