2014 Senate retirements

[Mr.Phips]

well based on age the most likely look to be Lautenberg, Levin, and Inhofe considering how old they are.

Im assuming Democrats will twist Levin's arm to get him to run one last time. 

[Mr.Phips]

Obviously Democrats need to make sure we have as few retirements as possible, or 2014 could very quickly turn into a bloodbath. Hopefully Collins follows Snowe's lead and lets us take Maine.

Yeah, if we can keep the incumbents in, we could limit damage and hopefully secure the Senate until 2018 (well, we'd need to avoid a 2010-like situation, of course).

Well, in 2018, it is very likely that there will be a Republican President, so that will make it a lot easier for Dems then.


In 2014, it is highly, highly unlikely that we will see anything like 2010.  There are numerous reasons that I will list:

1.  Democrats dont control the House, so the things that Dems passed in 2009-2010 that lit a fire under the GOP base will be impossible to pass or even be debated.
2.  The economy will almost certainly be far better, with the unemployment rate likely having a 6-handle on it for the first time in many years.
3. No two term President in over 100 years has had two wave elections against them unless you have a 1948-1950 situation where the President has huge coattails at reelection, gaining 70-odd House seats and making huge Senate gains.  Democrats had pretty paltry House gains in 2012, much like Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984. 
4.  I may be repeating #1 a bit, but government is divided and any discontent will also likely be directed at Republicans, since they already control half of Congress. 

[Mr.Phips]

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wasn't Mike Rounds forming an exploratory committee? It's probably best to accept SD is gone for the Dems. Johnson isn't in great health either

Rounds wasnt even that popular when he left office.  It's certainly nothing like the 2010 Hoeven situation. 

[Mr.Phips]

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost to Noem by two points in the worst Dem year in over a century.  2014 is almost certain to be far better for Democrats. 

[Mr.Phips]

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost to Noem by two points in the worst Dem year in over a century.  2014 is almost certain to be far better for Democrats. 

Johnson survived 1994, which was almost as bad as 2010.

2010 was worse that 1994 everywhere outside of the Senate, governorships, and possibly statewide offices.  And Johnson didnt face a credible opponent and wasnt targeted by Republicans in 1994. 

[Mr.Phips]

Just ask Ben Chandler about how surviving 2010 helped, Mr. Phips.

Throughout most of the south and border states, 2012 actually looked like a repeat of 2010.  Just look at the state legislatures and House seats.   The reason that it wasnt real dramatic is that Democrats had so little left to lose there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Looking at the 2014 elections, I don't see that many seats switching hands.

Maybe something like:
Pryor wins if he runs, otherwise R+1
Begich and Hagen perhaps barely win
Republicans win LA and WV
VA is only competitive if Warner doesn't run

Democrats pick up Maine but nothing else

If Collins were to retire,  Maine would be an almost certain Dem pickup no matter what the environment.  Maine is much more liberal than New Hampshire and Republicans dont have another Kelly Ayotte in Maine. 

[Mr.Phips]

It's a tough map for the Dems, even without taking into consideration retirements, there are 7 Romney Dems up (MT, SD, AK, LA, AR, WV, NC) and only one Obama Repub (ME). Then again the 2012 map appeared to be awful for Dems.

Yeah, Im assuming the playing field will pretty much be the Romney-Dem states and probably Shaheen in New Hampshire absent retirements in places like Iowa and Michigan.  The Udalls, Merkley, and Franken will probably be fine unless the environment turns really toxic for Dems, which is unlikely since they dont control the House and cant pass all of the things that fired up the GOP base and turned independents against them in 2009 and 2010.  

Republicans would probably need a pretty good opponent to beat Baucus and would probably need Moore-Capito to beat Rockefeller.  They dont have anybody that great in North Carolina.  McHenry might try, but he doesnt strike me as the type that would have much appeal beyond the Republican base.  

Republicans have a menu of candidates in Louisiana and obviously have Griffin in Arkansas.  Maybe Parnell in Alaska?

[Mr.Phips]

My thoughts.

Dem targets:

Maine is the only one, and that only works if Collins retires. (If Collins does retire, the Dem primary will be pretty lively; Baldacci, Michaud, and Pingree all declared for Snowe's seat before they realized King was running, and in a Democratic midterm Republicans are not to be counted out in Maine either.) No way is McConnell going down in Obama midterm -- that's a decoy.

Rep targets:

Alaska -- Probably outright leans Republican. I've read Parnell may run, and even if he doesn't, the Republicans do have a bench around here that rarely sees an opportunity for U.S. Congress.

Oregon -- Underestimated, imo. Greg Walden, if he runs, would be favored outright to beat Merkley, and a different competent candidate (Allen Alley comes to mind) would certainly be able to give Merkley a run for his money.

Montana -- Overestimated. Baucus has been around for a long time and his approval ratings have recovered back to positives since their nadir in 2010. Plus Montana Repubs have a sucky bench.

South Dakota -- Johnson's probably out. Whether or not that's the case, Rounds is probably in.

Colorado -- Republicans may make a play for this one (Cory Gardner and Jane Norton are apparently both interested and both would be legitimate challengers), but Udall definitely starts off favored.

Louisiana -- Bill Cassidy wants to challenge Landrieu. In today's Louisiana he may start off favored.

Arkansas -- Tim Griffin wants a promotion to the Senate. Pryor is vulnerable (not like Begich or Landrieu, though), but some think he may want to run for the statehouse, in which case Halter or Dustin McDaniel is the best Democratic bet.

Minnesota -- Way overrated. Who do Republicans have to beat Franken with? Nobody. (OK, maybe Paulsen. But that's doubtful).

Iowa -- Harkin may retire, and even if he doesn't Tom Latham would be a formidable challenger. If he does, Bruce Braley is favored for the D nomination. I doubt Latham runs against Harkin (Republicans do have a strong bench here and Harkin won't be allowed reelection without a fight), but sans Harkin he may run and he would be favored.

Illinois -- Durbin's probably retiring. If he does, he's safe. If he doesn't, the ambitious Republicans seem to be gravitating toward the gubernatorial race, so this one's probably right out the window.

Michigan -- Levin's safe if he runs again, which I think is more likely than not. If he retires, Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats in this state, but it leans Democratic, so it likely depends on the national climate. The strongest Republican who comes to mind is state Attorney General Bill Schuette (who lost to Levin way, way back in 1990), but Schuette is rumored to be interested in the Governor's Mansion, as rumor is Snyder won't seek reelection. (All of this is rumor). I guess Jennifer Granholm would be a favorite if she wanted the Democratic nomination in the event of a Levin retirement, as she's the most prominent MI Dem.

North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

Virginia -- If Warner runs for reelection, as is likeliest, this is safe Democratic. If he doesn't, McDonnell is term-limited out in 2013 and would probably start as the favorite for a Senate seat.

West Virginia -- Considering the rightward swing in 2012 and the fact that Rockefeller is very likely retiring, this is probably a likelier Republican pickup than most realize. Certainly, Moore-Capito has this in the bag if she wants it, but I think a lesser Republican, like David McKinley, Betty Ireland, Bill Maloney, or maybe even John Raese would be favored. Some Democratic bench people include Carte Goodwin, Jeff Kessler, John Perdue, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson.

New Jersey -- If Lautenberg dies I suppose a Christie appointee could win. Otherwise, safe D.

Massachusetts -- If Kerry resigns and Brown wins the special election Brown starts off favored for reelection. Under any scenario with Kerry or without Brown, safe D.

New Hampshire -- Probably leans D. Shaheen is pretty popular and Republicans have better targets. (Rumor on The Fix is that Sununu wants a comeback, but that was the rumor in 2010 and 2012 too and it didn't happen.) Shaheen is apparently on retirement watch; if she does retire Carol Shea-Porter is favored for the Democratic nomination.

...Yeah. Republicans have way more possible targets than Dems do. You can argue that was the case in 2012 as well, but it's significantly worse in 2014. To the extent I think they are favored to take the Senate in 2014. (Note: that's not a prediction (it's too early to be making predictions); just a statement that I think in a neutral political environment Republicans would gain the necessary 6 seats to retake the Senate.)

Walden is way too far to the right to win a statewide race in Oregon.  Also, he is almost certain to become NRCC chairman.  You cant really have that job and run for another office.  

Harkin has had four very tough races in a row and knows exactly how to win a tough race.  He faced Jepsen in 1984 and walloped him, Tauke in 1990 and beat him by eight points, Lightfoot in 1996 and beat him.  In 2002, Republicans thought they had the perfect challenger to him in Greg Ganske and even in a slightly down year for Democrats, he won by 10 points.  This guy is a pitbull.  

Ill give you Louisana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska, and possibly Arkansas.  That's just five seats and Republicans need six. 

[Mr.Phips]

Those 5 are the obvious ones, but, probability. There's just so many possible Democratic targets that I think it's there's a greater than 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, and when you add the one to your 5 that's a majority. There's literally just so many options and certain pickups and possible longshots for the Republicans, and than the Democrats have one massively unlikely longshot and another race where they have to hope the incumbent retires, and that's it, and on top of that you will probably have some sort of six-year itch. I think it's more likely than not some combination of 6 seats somewhere flips. (I wonder if 2014 is shaping up to be a reverse 1986, with strong Republican gains in the Senate but also strong Democratic gains in the different gubernatorial mansions -- if you continue the analogy, you get weak Republican gains in the House and Republicans taking control of the Senate; those three all sound about right).

If its any of those four, its going to be North Carolina.  Im not seeing Oregon.  Walden is from the complete wrong part of the state and is just not the kind of Mark Hatfield/Bob Packwood/Gordon Smith Republican who can win statewide there.  Colorado has become incredibly tough for Republicans and in New Hampshire, Shaheen is fairly popular and is a good fit for the state.

1986 was a weird situation where you had a lot of incredibly weak Republican candidates who got washed in in the Reagan landslide of 1980 whom nobody expected would ever win.  Im thinking of Mack Mattingly in Georgia and Jeremiah Denton in Alabama.  The retirement of Charles Matthias in Maryland didnt help them either.  Then you had the two Dakota Senators who narrowly lost due to the freak farm crisis.  In Florida, Paula Hawkins likely would have beaten any Democrat other than hugely popular governor Bob Graham, who was a God in the state.  

Most of the Democrats who won in 2008 were carefully recruited and were very strong candidates with the possible exception of Franken.  

[Mr.Phips]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

I didn't say there's a 75% chance of taking the Senate. I said there is a 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, which seems to be a fairly realistic prognosis. (I personally would say there's maybe a 55% chance of taking the Senate, but this basically entirely going by my gut.)

Of those, I see North Carolina as the only one that has a better than 25% chance of flipping.  I see almost no chance of Oregon or Colorado flipping and things would have to get really, really bad for New Hampshire to flip. 

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

This poll is over a year old and the point is almost certainly moot, since Walden is almost certain to be NRCC chairman.