2014 Senate retirements

[Keystone Phil]

Who is likely to bail before the 2014 election?

[freepcrusher]

well based on age the most likely look to be Lautenberg, Levin, and Inhofe considering how old they are.

[Mister Twister]

Rockefeller (WV) and Johnson (SD) are basically a given. I can see Pryor being a coward and retiring too.

[BM]

The 5 most likely imo:

Durbin (IL)
Lautenberg (NJ)
Johnson (SD)
Rockefeller (WV)
Collins (ME)

There are also a lot of other REALLY old Senators (75+) up for reelection in 2014 so maybe a couple of them too.

[Keystone Phil]

Rockefeller (WV) and Johnson (SD) are basically a given. I can see Pryor being a coward and retiring too.

Too good to be true (especially about Pryor).

[Svensson]

Throw-in: Enzi (WY).

[Vosem]

Durbin, Rockefeller, and Johnson are essentially certainties. Lautenberg will never retire voluntarily. Cross him off the list. I'll write something more comprehensive tomorrow, probably.

[Mr.Phips]

well based on age the most likely look to be Lautenberg, Levin, and Inhofe considering how old they are.

Im assuming Democrats will twist Levin's arm to get him to run one last time. 

[Frodo]

No one mentioned McCain? 

[Vosem]

No one mentioned McCain? 

He doesn't turn up until 2016...

[morgieb]

Durbin, Rockefeller, and Johnson are essentially certainties. Lautenberg will never retire voluntarily. Cross him off the list. I'll write something more comprehensive tomorrow, probably.

Why did he do so in 2000 then?

[Lief 🗽]

Obviously Democrats need to make sure we have as few retirements as possible, or 2014 could very quickly turn into a bloodbath. Hopefully Collins follows Snowe's lead and lets us take Maine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obviously Democrats need to make sure we have as few retirements as possible, or 2014 could very quickly turn into a bloodbath. Hopefully Collins follows Snowe's lead and lets us take Maine.

Yeah, if we can keep the incumbents in, we could limit damage and hopefully secure the Senate until 2018 (well, we'd need to avoid a 2010-like situation, of course).

[Mr.Phips]

Obviously Democrats need to make sure we have as few retirements as possible, or 2014 could very quickly turn into a bloodbath. Hopefully Collins follows Snowe's lead and lets us take Maine.

Yeah, if we can keep the incumbents in, we could limit damage and hopefully secure the Senate until 2018 (well, we'd need to avoid a 2010-like situation, of course).

Well, in 2018, it is very likely that there will be a Republican President, so that will make it a lot easier for Dems then.


In 2014, it is highly, highly unlikely that we will see anything like 2010.  There are numerous reasons that I will list:

1.  Democrats dont control the House, so the things that Dems passed in 2009-2010 that lit a fire under the GOP base will be impossible to pass or even be debated.
2.  The economy will almost certainly be far better, with the unemployment rate likely having a 6-handle on it for the first time in many years.
3. No two term President in over 100 years has had two wave elections against them unless you have a 1948-1950 situation where the President has huge coattails at reelection, gaining 70-odd House seats and making huge Senate gains.  Democrats had pretty paltry House gains in 2012, much like Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984. 
4.  I may be repeating #1 a bit, but government is divided and any discontent will also likely be directed at Republicans, since they already control half of Congress. 

[RodPresident]

Republicans: Alexander, Inhofe, Pat Roberts, maybe Enzi and Collins
Democrats: Kerry, Johnson, Levin, Durbin, maybe Baucus, Warner, Pryor and Rockefeller
Rockefeller will retires only when he wants or a big Republican wave. WV likes and needs seniority to get their pork.

[freepcrusher]

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

[Mr.Phips]

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

[Mister Twister]

Wasn't Mike Rounds forming an exploratory committee? It's probably best to accept SD is gone for the Dems. Johnson isn't in great health either

[Mr.Phips]

Wasn't Mike Rounds forming an exploratory committee? It's probably best to accept SD is gone for the Dems. Johnson isn't in great health either

Rounds wasnt even that popular when he left office.  It's certainly nothing like the 2010 Hoeven situation. 

[Knives]

Surely time is up for Inouye?

Though he'll probably die first.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Surely time is up for Inouye?

Though he'll probably die first.

Inouye's term ends in 2016.

[morgieb]

Johnson (SD) - not in the best position to campaign against an opponent like Rounds, and South Dakota is rather red. I think he chickens out.
Rockefeller (WV) - just ask Chandler or Critz about Obama's coal positions. Well Rockefeller's more public about it.
Durbin (IL) - looks like Schumer will become the Democrat leader once Reid retires. What's the point to stay then?
Lautenberg (NJ) - 90, survived cancer, retired once before...yeah.
Enzi (WY) - nearly retired in 2008 and a Democrat isn't winning Wyoming in a long time.

Those five will I think, but possibly also...

Inhofe (OK) - age
Levin (MI) - ditto
Collins (ME) - she just got married and Snowe retired too...
Kerry (MA) - to become Secretary of State
Warner (VA) - to become Governor
Baucus (MT) - not very popular and isn't very young
Cochran (MS) - ageing and might get primaried.

Also, Graham (SC) will get primaried, but he won't retire voluntarily just yet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Durbin seems to love being senator and is Obama's biggest ally in the senate. So I don't see him retiring as long as his fellow Illinoisan is president.

McAullife just announced that he will run for governor of Virginia and that he spoke with Warner before going public, so I guess that means he will remain in the senate.

Baucus's popularity seems to have rebounded according to the latest PPP Montana poll. Also the fact that Schweitzer declined to challenge him in a primary makes his reelection prospects much brighter.

[Vosem]

Durbin, Rockefeller, and Johnson are essentially certainties. Lautenberg will never retire voluntarily. Cross him off the list. I'll write something more comprehensive tomorrow, probably.

Why did he do so in 2000 then?

Apparently, he hated retirement. In 2008, he defeated a fairly strong primary challenge. He's the epitome of a leaves-in-a-hearse Senator.

http://www.northjersey.com/news/politics/elections/An_aggressive_Lautenberg_getting_second_look_from_skeptics_.html

[BM]

I'm not all that worried about 2014. Even in 2010 Republicans blew multiple Senate races. They probably won't fix their problems in less than 2 years, and they might even get worse.

Replacements for the most likely retirements?

SD - Stephanie Herseth Sandlin / Mike Rounds or Kristi Noem?
WV - If Shelley Moore Capito goes for it she probably wins
IL - Would obviously be a circus. I have no idea.
NJ - Easily Cory Booker assuming he doesn't run for governor and win
WY- Cynthia Lummis?
ME - Mike Michaud and/or Chellie Pingree probably jump in without Angus King to worry about