I'd say the odds of Shuler leaving Congress are pretty even. His new district isn't totally unwinnable, but even if he won in 2012, he'd have to repeatedly fight for it.
With the extensive lawsuits, the word in NC is that the new map might not even be in effect until the 2014 elections...
Don't think that's what happened last time....they used the drawn maps until successfully litigated, at which point the legislature redrew them.
There is a pretty good chance that Democrats could control the legislature again by the next time redistricting is done.
