HI-1 special election results

[Mr.Phips]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

He could get 55% of the 16% and still win. 

[Mr.Phips]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

He could get 55% of the 16% and still win.  

That posits however, Djou getting about 25%, and Hanabasa getting 30%.  With Hanabusa at 17% of those who have made a decision, that would be a near doubling of strength of both Dems with the those undecided as compared to those who have.

Undecideds usually break pretty heavily to the Dem in Hawaii so I wouldnt expect Djou to pick up much from them.  And Hanabusa appears to be sinking, so Case getting 55% of the undecideds is not out of the question.

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe next time the DCCC should let the people who actually live in the goddamn place pick their own candidate.

Hanabusa will wipe the floor with Djou in November.

Doesn't matter, we won it when it mattered.

This is the sort of seat the Republicans are only going to hold as long as it is clear that they have no chance of actually controlling Congress.

You don't know that Democrats are going to win the seat. Saiki managed to win reelection after being elected in a special election in the same seat, and the demographics and boundaries of the district haven't changed much since her time in congress.

Saiki won in a time when politics was far less polarized.  In those days, you had districts like SC-04 and FL-01 sending Democrats to Congress.  Things have changed very much since then.  Also, Democrats had a hammerlock on Congress then and Democratic leaning voters believed that by voting for Saiki, they were not risking making a Republican Speaker of the House.