Update:
Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.
If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.
If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).
However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.
A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional). If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).
If healthcare reform dies, Democrats die in 2010. That is what will happen. Democrats will have nothing to run in 2010 otherwise.