How pending elections impact legislation

[CARLHAYDEN]

I suggest that a close watch on the actions of Senators Reid and McCain (both of whose terms of office are up next year) are impacted.

While I still doubt that McCain will seek reelection, he's been forced to sort of act like a Republican in the last couple of months, lest any chance of reelection be foreclosed,

Reid though he was being so clever by persuading Republican officeholders like Rep. Heller not to run against him, got the shock of his life when a recent Mason-Dixon poll revealed his massive unpopularity with Nevada voters.

So, don't expect McCain to come to Obama's rescue, and watch Reid back off from threats of a 'nuclear option.'

[Meeker]

Politicians' actions might be influenced by their re-election possibilities? Never thought of that before. Thank you CARL!

[The Arizonan]

So, Harry Reid is f***ed?

[johnashleys]

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[Lunar]

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[CARLHAYDEN]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

How many federal special elections have been seriously contested between the D's and R's in that time? Gillibrand's house seat is about it.

My point being you're simultaneously trying to compare apples and oranges, AND making mountains out of molehills. Impressive feat.

I seriously doubt any member of congress is looking to the NJ and VA gubernatorial races as national bellweathers. And if there are any individual exceptions to this rule, they're just being foolish.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update:

Now a number of understandably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

How many federal special elections have been seriously contested between the D's and R's in that time? Gillibrand's house seat is about it.

My point being you're simultaneously trying to compare apples and oranges, AND making mountains out of molehills. Impressive feat.

I seriously doubt any member of congress is looking to the NJ and VA gubernatorial races as national bellweathers. And if there are any individual exceptions to this rule, they're just being foolish.

Sorry Badger, but you're wrong again.

There have been three special elections for Congress completed since Obama has taken office as President (two more in progress), not the one you asserted.

In all three of the completed cases, the Democrat nominee received a smaller percentage of the vote in the special election in 2009 that the preceding Democrat candidate did in 2008.  The completed races are for California district 32, Illinois district 5 and New York district 20.  The pending races are California district 10 and New York district 23.

Oh, and BTW, Nathan L. Gonzales at Roll Call agrees with me that the politicians are watching the gubernatorial races in Virigina and New Jersey for clues as to what the political environment will be like next year.

[Badger]

Update:

Now a number of understandably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

But, but...why follow the results of two off-off year gubernatorial elections when so many state house and senate victories by Democrats clearly show that Obama is rapidly rebounding?   

Gosh, I dunno Carl---there's just something about your report that just doesn't seem to fit. Hmmm.,,,

Lets see.

In how many special elections have the Democrat candidates done better than in the prior regular election for the office for which the special election was held since Obama has been in office?  Please list.

How many federal special elections have been seriously contested between the D's and R's in that time? Gillibrand's house seat is about it.

My point being you're simultaneously trying to compare apples and oranges, AND making mountains out of molehills. Impressive feat.

I seriously doubt any member of congress is looking to the NJ and VA gubernatorial races as national bellweathers. And if there are any individual exceptions to this rule, they're just being foolish.

Sorry Badger, but you're wrong again.

There have been three special elections for Congress completed since Obama has taken office as President (two more in progress), not the one you asserted.

In all three of the completed cases, the Democrat nominee received a smaller percentage of the vote in the special election in 2009 that the preceding Democrat candidate did in 2008.  The completed races are for California district 32, Illinois district 5 and New York district 20.  The pending races are California district 10 and New York district 23.

Oh, and BTW, Nathan L. Gonzales at Roll Call agrees with me that the politicians are watching the gubernatorial races in Virigina and New Jersey for clues as to what the political environment will be like next year.

Please note what I said about special elections seriously contested by both parties. None but NY-20 fit this role, and I'm not drawing any "national message" off its results.

I'll read the Roll Call article when time before posting further.

[Badger]

Meh. Can only read the first two sentences without registering. With deference to Messre Gonzales, color me skeptical as hell.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's from Kausfiles:

 OMB Director Peter Orszag didn't really predict a health care law in six weeks--he said "The goal would be, yes, over the next six weeks or so, maybe sooner." We know all about "goals." But the 6-week frame is not an accident, because something happens in 6 weeks: elections. If Democrats lose big gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, that could produce a new wave of jitters among already skittish Congressional swing Democrats (a possibility Charles Lane pointed to months ago). That's one of the extraneous factors left out of some sophisticated positive assessments of the bill's chances. Better to get it done before the ax might fall. ... Meanwhile, Ezra Klein says we're on the 10 yard line. Sure! But we are playing 43-man Squamish. ... 1:06 A.M.

[Mr.Phips]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

If healthcare reform dies, Democrats die in 2010.  That is what will happen.  Democrats will have nothing to run in 2010 otherwise. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

If healthcare reform dies, Democrats die in 2010.  That is what will happen.  Democrats will have nothing to run in 2010 otherwise. 

Uh, you seem to have some problem with grammar.

If the Democrats inflict socialized medicine on the country, the country will retaliate for that action.

What the Democrats 'ran on' in 2006 and 2008 was 'not Republican.' And lets face it, the Republican 'leadership' is a bunch of turkeys.

[Mr.Phips]

Update:

Now a number of understadably apprehensive Democrats in Congress want to wait to see what happens in New Jersey and Virginia before they vote on Obamacare.

If both states elect Republican Governors, a fifty-fifty possibility, kiss Obamacare good-bye.

If both states elect Democrat Governors (they both have Democrat Governors now), figure that Obamacare will pass (the odds of both states electing Democrats for Governor this year are under ten per cent).

However, if the states split (a very good possibility), the issue will be vary close.

A wild card is the special election in New York (congressional).  If New Jersey and Virginia split, that race may decide a number of votes in Congress (if the Conservative wins, watch a number of members of Congress running away from Obamacare like scalded dogs).

If healthcare reform dies, Democrats die in 2010.  That is what will happen.  Democrats will have nothing to run in 2010 otherwise. 

Uh, you seem to have some problem with grammar.

If the Democrats inflict socialized medicine on the country, the country will retaliate for that action.

What the Democrats 'ran on' in 2006 and 2008 was 'not Republican.' And lets face it, the Republican 'leadership' is a bunch of turkeys.

The country seems ready to retaliate anyway.  Democrats might as well just do it.