2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

The matchup thing is presumably more a comment on Koch's personal unpopularity than much else.

57% disapprovals, according to the same poll.

Mind you, the SPD's are worse...

But I still don't see the cosmic justice in the FDP profitting. Come on people, if you don't like the Koch government nor the opposition, vote Far Right or Freie Wähler. Not that foaming-at-the-mouth Koch sidekick Hahn. Whose intransigence last year, of course, gave us these elections...

So you'd rather have people voting for the Nazis than the for FDP, all to punish then for not allowing Ypsilanti to reign supreme?

No, no. People who're totally fine with Koch should vote CDU or FDP (as if I care). I just don't see the argument for a "well Koch's an idiot but I don't want the left either, so I'm voting for the FDP" argument because, well, there isn't one given the positions and the leading personnel of the Hessian FDP.

Heh. So says a man who can't give a coherent answer on why he'll probably vote Green rather than Left this time...

[minionofmidas]

You're welcome. -_-

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat didn't do anything last time around because the CDU refused to collaborate. I guess the same is true this year (certainly the absence of a one-on-one debate was Koch's decision), although the short campaign may also have played a role.

Yeah, I just voted. And unless unlike Franzl I literally changed my mind in the voting booth.
The old "one vote doesn't really matter at all unless it happens to be the one that makes 5%" logic again. Not that I'm sure I did the right thing - I basically went to the polls now because I gave up on reaching a firm decision before 6pm. I think seeing Sarah Sorge's name printed on the ballot played a role too (top five of every list is printed) - Sorge's sort of been emblematic of the Greens' takeover of pure carreerists to me since her city council days here. I'm almost 100% certain this is quite unfair, but it's the way I feel.

[minionofmidas]

Statewide "results'll be here" page not yet up (or at least linked to). Will only have municipalities once they're complete, if past form be anything to go by.

Here be 2008 results by municipality and by constituency.

A zipped Excel file, but it also has 2004 Euros, 2005 feds and 2006 locals, all in one place! By constituency (chapter 8 ), district (9) and municipality-by-constituency (10). *drool* Shame there's no 2003 though. Blue thingy at top left is "back to index".

EDIT: Thanks, asshats.

Frankfurt by precinct (and by Stadtteil) will be linked to off this page sometime later. They probably won't have comparison results - never used to - though. It'll probably be looking very much like this, which is Wiesbaden's. 2008 Stadtteil results be here (towards end of document) and a map be here.

This will have 2008 and 2009 precinct results for the southern suburb of Neu-Isenburg. This is the format I'd like other towns use (although a precinct map would be nice, ya frog puritans. Just sayin'.)

Offenbach has 2008 results and a map.
I guess a link to 2009 results will appear here later today, but so far I ain't seen it.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout down. Y'all know what that means.

[minionofmidas]

Eagerly awaiting the Frankfurt am Main VI results ...

In which district of Frankfurt is Lewis actually in ?

Lewis is in Frankfurt V, I think.


and Hashemite: I love the FDP results.....and the Greens (only because they've ruined the SPD )

Frankfurt III. Grew up in V.

Okay... things to look out for for us nerds:

Change of CDU/FDP combined vote versus 2003.
Where the FDP voters are, exactly
Green vote; change on 2003.
Vote splitting
Turnout, esp. localised... I just walked pust my precinct, ambled in and asked the good people at the count how many had voted. 462. I *think* that's pretty bad.

[minionofmidas]

With 121/544 precincts from Frankfurt so far...

CDU 35.7
SPD 21.3
Greens 16.3
FDP 14.7
Left 8.1
turnout 56.0

65/239 from Wiesbaden...

CDU 38.7
SPD 21.9
FDP 16.6
Greens 13.8
Left 5.7

Uhh... Offenbach? Clicking for "latest results" gets you 2008? What's up sillies?

[minionofmidas]

2009 vs 2008.

Just kidding. All I'm getting is a dead link. And I needed that for the indirect 2003 comparison.

[minionofmidas]

2003 (CDU+FDP) was 56.7, (SPD+Green) 39.2.

[minionofmidas]

Ooh, my precinct is in.

1195 registered voters
Day vote 462
   
CDU 101 22,2%
   
SPD 117 25,8%
   
FDP 76 16,7%
   
Greens 101 22,2%
   
Left 42 9,3%
   
other 17 3,7%

This makes me wish I'd voted Green.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, the CDU candidates are leading in all of Frankfurts districts right now ...

The only one to watch is Frankfurt V.

And no, Paris is ahead.

[minionofmidas]

Big FDP votes in the rural parts.

e.g. 5 Waldeck municipalities in already -

CDU between 43.2 (Willingen) and 32.6 (Edertal)
SPD between 33.8 (Edertal) and 19.8 (Willingen)
Greens at 9.2 to 10.8 except a much weaker result in Willingen (6.1)
Left at 3.0 to 4.8
FDP at 15 to 19 and at 25.3 in Willingen!

[minionofmidas]

Seems to be the biggest place wholly in so far: Schlitz (a collection of Vogelsberg villages, basically. And a little old town for which it's named.)

Registered voters   7 891   -66
Votes cast   4 724   -288
turnout   59,9   -   -3,1
invalid votes   180   3,8   +55   +1,3
valid votes   4 544   96,2   -343   -1,3
CDU   1 696   37,3   -21   +2,2
SPD   1 092   24,0   -816   -15,0
FDP   745   16,4   +262   +6,5
GRÜNE   524   11,5   +262   +6,1
DIE LINKE   259   5,7   +3   +0,5
REP   29   0,6   -32   -0,6
FREIE WÄHLER   112   2,5   +60   +1,4
NPD   59   1,3   -10   -0,1
PIRATEN   26   0,6   +11   +0,3
BüSo   2   0,0   0   0,0
and 62 votes for 2008 parties that didn't run anymore.

[minionofmidas]

Innenstadt (my Stadtteil)

3131 registered voters
1523 votes cast (48.6, about the same as last time around)
450 CDU (30.0. This is down a tad.)
300 FDP (20.0)
278 Green (18.5)
277 SPD (18.5)
148 Left (9.9)
46 other (3.1)

Yes, the SPD slipped from first to fourth. While winning a precinct, which is more than Greens and FDP could do. (The FDP fell short by one vote in the less populated, but more affluent where it is populated, western part. It also came a distant second in the postal vote.)

[minionofmidas]

Wiesmann's ahead again... let's have a look at what's still out.

Guesstimated for Paris - 130 04, 212 02, 222 02, 222 03, 240 02, 252 03, 261 01, 272 03, 272 06, 281 04
Guesstimated for Wiesmann - 201 03, 203 02, 203 03, 281 01
Either I overlooked one, or they divided one, or there's a postal precinct out as well. Those Holzhausen precincts (203 02 and 03) still out are worrying.

EDIT to make a strike list.

[minionofmidas]

And while I did that, they updated. One Paris precinct in, and for Paris. And the mystery precinct in, and for Wiesmann. I *think* it was indeed a postal one.

[minionofmidas]

Contrary to election.de's prediction of 4 seats for the SPD, Infratest dimap is predicting 10 (I see no list).

Current statewide estimate:
CDU 37.1
SPD 23.9
FDP 15.9
Greens 14.0
Left 5.2
other 3.9

Seat distribution estimate:
CDU 45 (+3)
SPD 29 (-13)
FDP 19 (+8)
Greens 17 (+8)
Left 6 (0)

Note the overhang - first time ever that this'll happen in Hesse.

Time to check who these extra FDP and Greens people will be, methinks.

[minionofmidas]

Somewhere big is in. Kassel's largest (and quite industrial. VW has a factory here.) suburb of Baunatal.

reg'd voters   21 773   +68
votes cast   13 176   -648
turnout   60,5   -3,2
invalid   568   4,3   +150   +1,3
valid   12 608   -798

CDU   3 849   30,5   +190   +3,2
SPD   4 956   39,3   -1 971   -12,4
FDP   1 455   11,5   +621   +5,3
GRÜNE   1 390   11,0   +587   +5,0
DIE LINKE   620   4,9   -154   -0,9
REP   59   0,5   -54   -0,3
FREIE WÄHLER   144   1,1   +111   +0,9
NPD   77   0,6   +14   +0,1
PIRATEN   46   0,4   +24   +0,2
BüSo   12   0,1   +8   +0,1

[minionofmidas]

Oh great, the list of new FDP MP's includes a law student who's younger than me but called "Hans-Christian".
Of the Frankfurt Greens, Bocklet's in (back in after a year, actually). Martina Feldmayer'll be losing out narrowly. Shame. Other way round would be much nicer.

[minionofmidas]

One of that string of wealthiest Frankfurt suburbs up on the Taunus slope... Kronberg.

reg'd    13 162   -133
votes cast   9 656      -315
turnout   73,4   -1,6
invalid   195   2,0   +53   +0,6
valid votes   9 461   98,0   -368   -0,6
CDU   4 309   45,5   -360   -2,0
SPD   1 297   13,7   -976   -9,4
FDP   2 255   23,8   +624   +7,2
GRÜNE   1 184   12,5   +427   +4,8
DIE LINKE   267   2,8   -28   -0,2
REP   35   0,4   -10   -0,1
FREIE WÄHLER   54   0,6   +31   +0,4
NPD   18   0,2   -13   -0,1
PIRATEN   36   0,4   +22   +0,3
BüSo   6   0,1   +3   +0,1

[minionofmidas]

Wiesmann's lead up to 392 votes, but still too close for concessions.

[minionofmidas]

Constituencies!
I'm cutting off at 15% here.

Hersfeld CDU 34.8 (+0.6), SPD 34.3 (-10.6). SPD retains on constituency vote, though.
Kassel West CDU 28.7 (+1.9), SPD 25.7 (-14.2), Greens 21.1 (+7.0). CDU takes seat. Then again, they won this even in 1995 (it was one of two trend-bucking 1999 losses due to an increase in vote splitting, along with Frankfurt 5).
Kassel East SPD 32.2 (-13.3), CDU 28.4 (+2.4), Greens 15.9 (+6.9). Hold (predicted even on election.de)
Odenwald CDU 36.4 (+0.7), SPD 26.8 (-13.5) CDU gain
Waldeck CDU 38.2 (+0.7), SPD 26.9 (-10.8), FDP 17.3 (+6.6). A narrow hold on the constituency vote last time around. Much easier now, of course.
Frankenberg CDU 36.9 (+0.8), SPD 28.1 (-11.4), FDP 16.2 (+6.9). Constituency vote lead was less than half that, but still a gain.

[minionofmidas]

281 01 voted for Paris. With 5 precincts out the lead is down to 160, and 4 of them will be for Paris (including the one I grew up in!) Still, there's one of those West-End-in-the-North-End precincts still missing as well.

[minionofmidas]

Three precincts out, lead down to 39 votes. Where I grew up was unsatisfactory - too many Greens (Bocklet tied Wiesmann) and thus less of a lead than could have been gotten out of it.

Starting to think that Paris will lose. By less than in 2003 (when he lost by 85 votes ) but still.

[minionofmidas]

Limburg, Weilburg, Hochtaunus East and Vogelsberg constituencies listed as "waiting for release". Vogelsberg result is actually available as a *district* - they're identical.

CDU 36.5 (+0.5), SPD 27.0 (-12., FDP 15.8 (+6.. Left up to over 5. (Seems the Left lost votes in the North and gained in the South.) Seat an easy CDU regain, of course. The other three listed above are safe CDU seats anyhow.