Scotland 2008?

[minionofmidas]

What would happen if the government fell (couldn't pass its budget) and a dissolution vote failed as well? What kind of government would take over?

[minionofmidas]

Gain, if this poll from the end of December is any guide

Constituency vote
SNP:  40% (+7)
Lab:  29% (-3)
Lib Dem:  13% (-3)
Con:  12% (-5)
Other:  6% 

Regional vote:
SNP:  34% (+3)
Lab:  26% (-3)
Con:  13% (-1)
Lib Dem:  13% (+2)
Green:  9% (+5)
ScotSol:  3% (+2)
Sol:  1% 
Oth:  2%

Applied to ScotlandVotes:

SNP 47
Lab 45
LD 13
Con 14
Green 10

Uh... how did you get that?

Correct figures:
SNP 51
Labour 37
LD 16
Con 15
Green 9
SSP 1

Of which direct seats:
SNP 44
Labour 22
LD 6
Con 1

[minionofmidas]

Given the current climate, the SNP could probably get everyone except Labour on board with fresh elections.

Why? The only party that would be certain to make gains would be the SNP. How would the smaller parties benefit from a stronger SNP government? (I may be looking at this in the wrong way though).

The Greens?

One would think that,should the budget fail, LDs and Tories have more to lose (in the mid run) from refusing new elections than agreeing to them.

[minionofmidas]

The Greens?

One would think that,should the budget fail, LDs and Tories have more to lose (in the mid run) from refusing new elections than agreeing to them.

Wouldn't they just get drowned out, even more than in 2007, by fresh elections over an issue like this though?

Yeah, but being to blame for chaos might be worse.

[minionofmidas]

The budget passed. SNP and the Conservatives voted to pass it. Labour and the Lib Dems abstained, which after weeks of unconstructive opposition is a bit of a climbdown.

See? None of them wanted new elections.