Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007

[minionofmidas]

My prediction:

Jindal 53%
Boasso 19%
Campbell 12%
Georges 11%
Other 5%

If Jindal were to pull over 55%, Landrieu should really watch out, imho.

Actual numbers:
Jindal 54%
Boasso 17%
Georges 14%
Campbell 13%
Other 2%

Pretty good, I must say, for a prediction with few polls (pats himself on back  ).  Overall, looking at the results, Jindal made his biggest gains in northern Baptist Louisiana - places around Shreveport (and Jena too).  The Orleans gains were not as huge for Jindal as these gains (he ran about 5% above where he did last time - and he ran ahead of your typical Republican here even last time)

That's because New Orleans knew exactly what to expect of Kathleen Blanco, and largely stayed at home.

[minionofmidas]

here's the Attorney General Map, Caldwell in red, Foti in green

That is a weird set of results.

[minionofmidas]

Whenever I've said Forti in this thread, I've meant Foti obviously.

No you didn't. Stop pretending. You obviously were talking about a completely different race in a completely different state that included a candidate named Forti.

[minionofmidas]

here's the Attorney General Map, Caldwell in red, Foti in green

That is a weird set of results.

 It's not that weird. Alexander did well in the Republican strongholds of the state - Northern LA, Lafayette and St. Tammany. It seems that Foti held onto the Cajun (south central LA) strongholds and Caldwell picked up most of the rest.

That's the basic picture, yeah. What caught my eye was the eastern end of Acadia - Terrebonne, Lafourche, Plaquemines - voting for Caldwell, that weird little patch of three Caldwell parishes around Natchitoches, and the more heavily black areas around Baton Rouge voting for Foti (while both New Orleans and NE Louisiana voted for Caldwell). However, the first is probably explained by proximity to New Orleans (and perhaps media markets as well?) and in the last case, I somewhat overestimated the blackness of places like Saint James and St John the Baptist and underestimated their frenchness.

Louisiana Parishes with above-average Cajun populations:*
Acadia Parish 38.0
Allen Parish 19.8
Ascension Parish 29.7
Assumption Parish 36.8
Avoyelles Parish 31.5
Calcasieu Parish 24.3
Cameron Parish 44.5
Evengeline Parish 34.2
Iberia Parish 32.2
Iberville Parish 21.1
Jefferson Parish 19.6
Jefferson Davis Parish 38.0
Lafayette Parish 29.7
Lafourche Parish 42.6
Livingston Parish 18.7
Plaquemines Parish 23.3
Pointe Coupee Parish 30.0
Saint Bernard Parish 24.1
Saint Charles Parish 26.1
Saint James Parish 25.0
Saint John the Baptist Parish 19.4
Saint Landry Parish 26.5
Saint Martin Parish 35.8
Saint Mary Parish 27.9
Saint Tammany Parish 18.2
Terrebonne Parish 35.0
Vermilion Parish 41.5
West Baton Rouge Parish 26.1

Louisiana Parishes with above average black populations**
Bienville Parish 43.8
Caddo Parish 44.6
Claiborne Parish 47.4
Concordia Parish 37.7
De Soto Parish 42.2
East Baton Rouge Parish 40.1
East Carroll Parish 67.3
East Feliciana Parish 47.1
Iberville Parish 49.7
Lincoln Parish 39.8
Madison Parish 60.3
Morehouse Parish 43.4
Natchitoches Parish 38.4
Orleans Parish 67.3
Ouachita Parish 33.6
Pointe Coupee Parish 37.8
Red River Parish 40.9
Richland Parish 38.0
St. Helena Parish 52.4
St. James Parish 49.4
St. John the Baptist Parish 44.8
St. Landry Parish 42.1
Tensas Parish 55.4
Webster Parish 32.8
West Baton Rouge Parish 35.5
West Feliciana Parish 48.6

*"Acadian/Cajun", "French" and "French Canadian". Percentage of total ancestries tallied, from 2000 census sample. State average 17.5%
**Black only, from 2000 census. State average 32.5%

[minionofmidas]

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

[minionofmidas]

I haven't been following this race very closely, but can someone please explain why the racist counties that Jindal lost in 2003, voted for him now?

Because he wasn't running against a racist scum being this time around.

Well, I personally suspect that might have realized that voting for Blanco was a mistake, and that their vote this time was kind of like a "redo".  Also, Jindal campaigned heavily in these areas, I wouldn't underestimate that.

Most probably so. Still, the core of the explanation is that Blanco had an appeal in Northern Louisiana that the current bunch lacked. I've also just spent the past few minutes comparing this election with the 2004 Senate election. Very enlightening, I gotta say. (And Jindal still did notably worse than Vitter in Northern Louisiana.)