Wales 2007; results thread

[minionofmidas]

IWJ wins in Ynys Mon. Rogers couldn't crush the Labour and Tory votes as much as he needed.

Indeed, he only really crushed the Tory vote. The Labour vote's decline fits with Wales' overall trend.

And that's with a Cardiff based lawyer running for us! I'm surprised that he did as well as he did actually...

Eh... the Tories won that seat with a Brighton based lawyer running for them in the 1980s.

[minionofmidas]

Since only SW Wales W regional is out, and I somehow very much doubt a change to the 4 PC, 1 Con, 1 LD distribution there (Labour held all seven FPTP seats)... can we call this count effectively over?

[minionofmidas]

Since only SW Wales W regional is out, and I somehow very much doubt a change to the 4 PC, 1 Con, 1 LD distribution there (Labour held all seven FPTP seats)... can we call this count effectively over?

2 PC, but yes.

typo, I guess. Maybe I was thinking of "4 total of which 2 PC etc ".

So, Labour 26
PC 15
Con 12
LD 6
iLabour 1

[minionofmidas]

I'm kind of wondering about Preseli and Carmarthen... seems to me like the Tory vote in both comes mostly from around and south of the Milford Haven (with the larger towns having a Labour presence as well, obviously), while the Carmarthen West part and the Preseli Hills proper part look more like natural Labour-PC marginals... what might a constituency map that splits the area ne-sw rather than nw-se as currently look like? I guess it'd only have one Tory seat. (Although for pop. no.s reasons, I suppose part of Little England would end up in Carmarthen West & Preseli anyways.)

[minionofmidas]

(Cont. of post on overhang in Scottish thread)

In Wales, because the relation of direct seats to total seats is worse, and also because of Labours giant-among-dwarves-but-not-actually-a-giant position, there was a good bit more overhang.

Rather than the official
Labour 26 - PC 15 - Con 12 - LD 6 - i 1 result,
a proportional result would be
Labour 22 - PC 15 - Con 15 - LD 8,
with Labour winning two overhang seats in S Wales W, and one each in N Wales and S Wales C, and Trish Law winning an "overhang" seat in S Wales E. The Con gains come in N, SE and SW, the LD gains in SC and SW.
A Bundestag style assembly would be
Labour 26 - PC 15 - Con 15 - LD 8 - i 1
Because of the Indy win, trying to make the SE's result proportional again is a riot. Even assuming that that one indy slate was related to Trish Law (I've no idea whether that's accurate), you'd have top add 7 Labour, 4 Tory, 3 PC, 3 LD, 1 BNP, 1 UKUP and 1 Green MA to be proportional again... and then SE Wales is, of course, ridiculously overrepresented.
In N and SC Wales, Labour are next in line anyways. but in the SW, making things proportional again requires extra seats for PC, the Tories, and the BNP.

[minionofmidas]

And the swings required for Labour to win less than half the seats in Wales... (ie: 19, five less than at present):
2.9 to the Tories (winning them Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Gower, and Clwyd S)
or 3.3 to the LDs (winning them Newport E and Swansea W, as well as pushing Delyn and the Vale seats to the Tories)
or 4.4 to PC (winning them Neath and Caerphilly, as well as pushing Delyn and the Vale seats to the Tories. And also Gower. And Newport E to the LDs. 4.3 would do only Neath and the three stronger Tory seats, though.)
or 2.2 to whoever the strongest challenger in each constituency is (the four Tory gains except Clwyd S, plus Newport E.)

[minionofmidas]

I can't say I'm happy. I think it is unfair and improper for the largest party not to form an administration.

There's nothing unfair or improper about that. (In fact, there's something rather unfair and improper, not to mention unpractical, about the assumption that the largest party should form the government, in fractured party systems.)
There certainly is something unfair and improper about forming a coalition not talked about before the election and not wanted by your voters when the option wanted by your voters is available though.
I'd've preferred a Labour-Plaid deal.

[minionofmidas]

Really, this is a consequence of Labour angering everyone in the UK with ttheir policies.

No it bloody isn't. This is about opportunism and greed. That's all.

Greed for office that is I suppose?

Once you've calmed down, can you give me a rundown on what the three parties have agreed on? (Both politically and in terms of cabinet posts)?

[minionofmidas]

Three Deputy First Ministers? What's that for? It would seem that (at least officially) the point of having a deputy prime minister is knowing who'll chair cabinet meetings when the Prime Minister is on vacation, or has just keeled over from a massive f**king coronary on the way to the meeting. Which doesn't really work out if you've got several, unless one of them is the First Deputy First Minister.

Bavaria had an everybody-against-the-CSU four-party government from 1954 to 1957, btw: SPD, BP (basically the wing of the CSU that was even more federalist, and didn't want an alliance with the CDU), FDP and BHE (the eastern refugees' voting bloc that we had from the early fifties to the early sixties). FDP left in 57 and joined with the CSU instead. After the 58 elections, the FDP was not in Parliament anymore but the CSU formed a government with the BHE. After 1962, the BHE was not in Parliament anymore but the CSU had a majority, which it hasn't lost ever since.

[minionofmidas]

What odds on a Labortory government now?

[minionofmidas]

What odds on a Labortory government now?

0%, same as always. Everyone in South Wales Labour hates the Tories too much for it to be even slightly possible.

As Plaid and the LDs have pissed off their voters, clearly it is now Labour's turn to do so though?

[minionofmidas]

Regional
Aberavon: Lab 45.5%, Plaid 17.6%, Con 10%, LDem 8.7%, BNP 5.8%, Greens 3.2%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Bridgend: Lab 31.5%, Con 23.6%, LDem 15.3%, Plaid 11.6%, BNP 5.2%, UKIP 4.2%, Greens 3.4%, SLP 1.2%, WCP 1.1%, CPB 0.3%
Gower: Lab 28.4%, Con 27.4%, Plaid 17.1%, LDem 9.7%, Greens 5.5%, BNP 5%, UKIP 2.6%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.2%
Neath: Lab 37.5%, Plaid 29.2%, Con 10%, LDem 7.2%, BNP 4.8%, Greens 3.4%, UKIP 3.2%, SLP 1.5%, WCP 1.2%, CPB 0.3% 
Ogmore: Lab 46.8%, Plaid 16%, Con 10.5%, LDem 8.1%, BNP 4.7%, UKIP 3.6%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.9%, WCP 0.7%, CPB 0.4%
Swansea East: Lab 37.6%, LDem 17%, Plaid 15.5%, Con 8.9%, BNP 8.1%, UKIP 4.9%, Greens 2.7%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.3%
Swansea West: Lab 25.7%, LDem 21.4%, Con 18.3%, Plaid 15.8%, BNP 5.2%, Greens 4.8%, UKIP 3.9%, SLP 1.1%, WCP 1%, CPB 0.4%

Constituency
Aberavon: Lab 49.3%, Plaid 17.3%, NPTR 12.5%, Con 9.7%, LD 7.1%, NMBP 4.1%
Bridgend: Lab 40.3%, Con 29.9%, LD 15.2%, PC 14.7%
Gower: Lab 34.2%, Con 29.8%, PC 18.5%, LD 10.6%, UKIP 6.9%
Neath: Lab 43.4%, PC 35.7%, Con 11.7%, LD 9.2%
Ogmore: Lab 51.7%, PC 17.0%, Con 11.7%, i 10.3%, LD 9.4%
Swansea E: Lab 41.5%, LD 17.5%, PC 15.5%, Con 9.8%, i 7.8%, 5.7%, 2.2%
Swansea W: Lab 32.3%, LD 25.7%, Con 19.1%, PC 15.7%, UKIP 7.2%

Regional
Blaenau Gwent: Lab 43.8%, Plaid 13.3%, LDem 8.35%, Ind 7.3%, Con 6.8%, UKIP 6.3%, BNP 5.6%, SLP 2.6%, WCP 2.5%, Greens 2.3%, ED 0.3%, CPB 0.3%
Caerphilly: Lab 37.3%, Plaid 24.1%, Con 12.1%, LDem 6.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 4.6%, Ind 4.1%, Greens 2.8%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.3%, ED 0.2%
Islwyn: Lab 42.3%, Plaid 21.5%, Con 9.7%, LDem 6.3%, UKIP 5.2%, BNP 5.1%, Greens 2.7%, Ind 2.6%, SLP 1.8%, WCP 1.6%, ED 0.4%, CPB 0.2%
Merthyr: Lab 42.1%, Plaid 16.8%, LDem 14%, Con 7.7%, UKIP 5.6%, BNP 4.4%, Ind 2.5%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 2.0%, WCP 1.3%, CPB 0.6%, ED 0.1%
Monmouth: Con 46.2%, Lab 20.6%, LDem 11.3%, Plaid 5.9%, Greens 4.2%, UKIP 3.7%, BNP 2.9%, ED 2.1%, SLP 1.3%, WCP 0.7%, Ind 0.6%, CPB 0.0%
Newport East: Lab 30.7%, LDem 22.8%, Con 21.7%, Plaid 8.6%, UKIP 3.5%, BNP 3.4%, CPB 2.3%, Greens 2.2%, SLP 1.4%, ED 1.3%, Ind 0.9%, WCP 0.8%
Newport West: Lab 33%, Con 30.7%, LDem 10.6%, Plaid 8.1%, BNP 5.3%, UKIP 3.5%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2%, ED 1.5%, WCP 1%, Ind 0.7%, CPB 0.2%
Torfaen: Lab 40.4%, Con 17.4%, Plaid 11.1%, LDem 11.1%, BNP 5.6%, UKIP 4.4%, Greens 2.9%, SLP 2.6%, Ind 2%, WCP 1.2%, ED 0.6%, CPB 0.4%

Constituency:
Blaenau Gwent: i 54.1%, Lab 31.3%, LD 5.7%, PC 4.8%, Con 4.0%
Caerphilly: Lab 34.6%, PC 25.8%, i 22.2%, Con 11.3%, LD 6.1%
Islwyn: Lab 37.7%, i 28.3%, PC 21.6%, Con 7.6%, LD 4.8%
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Lab 37.0%, LD 15.2%, i 12.5%, PC 12.0%, i 9.1%, Con 5.5%, i 4.0%, 3.8%, 0.8%
Monmouth: Con 52.0%, Lab 23.4%, LD 14.7%, PC 7.1%, ED 2.7%
Newport E: Lab 32.1%, LD 27.7%, Con 22.7%, PC 8.5%, i 6.8%, ED 2.2%
Newport W: Lab 40.5%, Con 34.6%, LD 11.9%, PC 10.4%, ED 2.7%
Torfaen: Lab 42.7%, Con 19.5%, PV 14.4%, PC 11.9%, LD 11.4%

Wow. PC over 5%, in either vote, in Monmouth.

[minionofmidas]

Could you also make an Unholy Alliance (PC+Con+LD) map?