the 2004 white vote

[minionofmidas]

NY and CA surprise me a bit, I suppose, but otherwise nothing to phone home about.

I'm also surprised that (possibly excluding African-Americans) CNN's exit polling say that whites were Kerry's strongest ethnic group in Hawaii.

Polynesians in Hawaii are very, very pro-incumbent.  Look at Nixon in 1972.

That was over thirty years ago!

It's still true. Pilipinos as well.

[minionofmidas]

If Clark, or Edwards, or even Gephardt had been nominated, how would these maps have differed?

They may have differed somewhat, but probably not substantially.  No Democrat has won the white vote in any election since LBJ in 1964.

And no Republican has one the white vote in D.C. since Nixon.

There are no whites in DC other than UN types, so what difference does that make?

very very false. I doubt 30% of DC are UN workers.

He said UN types, not UN workers. Whatever he meant by that, people who approve of the UN's existence maybe? In that case he's probably right.

[minionofmidas]

Sure upstate NY would be a lean-Rep swing state without NYC & suburbs (exclude the exurbs as well if you want to have a realistic map), but it would have less than half of NY's EVs and be losing more fast, as nobody wants to move there.

[minionofmidas]

Having a state government not really geared to their needs (including in the tax structure) is not going to help much, true. PA and IL have similar-ish situations of course, here too the states would likely be declining worse without the Philly and Chi burbs. Ohio isn't doing all that much better, though...although it probably is doing better.

[minionofmidas]

One thing to note is that perceived highness of taxes, perceived friendliness to union etc may be more important in attracting private investment than reality.

[minionofmidas]

Moreover, you can't just cut taxes and leave everything else as is...you'll have to either save or borrow.

[minionofmidas]

New York City has voted Republican three times in history IIRC - for McKinley (96 only), Harding and Coolidge.

[minionofmidas]

I do...somewhere...and only major parties (and Van Buren 1848 is lacking, which is a crying shame because the data for that year are really quite useless as a result). Back to 1840 or 1832 or something like that.