Democrats "expand the map"

[minionofmidas]

Arizona   1   Rick Renzi
Conservative, first elected by only a narrow margin in 2002. Should be safe now, although might go in a midterm on a freakishly high Navajo turnout.
Colorado   4   Marilyn Musgrave
District would be safe for 90% of the Republican congressional delegation, but won't ever be for Musgrave. She's still always the favourite.
Colorado   7   Bob Beauprez
Also a Conservative, in a very closely divided district. Won by just a handful of votes in 2002. Not seriously challenged in 2004, which makes it impossible to judge how strong he is right now.
Connecticut  2   Rob Simmons
Most vulnerable of Conn's three Reps. Might go against a strong challenger.
Indiana   9   Mike Sodrel
District narrowly gained by Reps in 2004. I don't really see it returning to the Dems anytime soon. Certainly not after 2006.
Kentucky   3   Anne Northup
Keeps on winning, usually in close-ish races, in an otherwise extremely tight district. Has a personal vote, obviously.
Nevada   3   Jon Porter
Don't see this one changing hands.
Pennsylvania  8   Mike Fitzpatrick
Wouldn't rule it out, but should favor Reps.
Pennsylvania  6   Jim Gerlach
He's certainly having problems. I don't quite understand why.
Washington    8   Dave Reichert
Dems had a great chance to gain this one in 2004, when it was open, and squandered it. Becoming harder now. Certainly not impossible.

Targeted Republicans include 8 members not on the Republican 10:
Rick Renzi of Arizona, Richard Pombo of California, Rob Simmons of Connecticut, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel, both of Indiana, Edward Whitfield of Kentucky, Sam Graves of Missouri, Vito Fossella of New York, Charles Taylor of North Carolina, Bob Ney of Ohio, Timothy Murphy of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington.

Pombo - only Rep Rep from the Bay Area (although the district spans into the Nmost part of the Central Valley), in one of the richest districts in the Nation. The Valley part is trending Rep.
Hostettler - Al absolutely hates his guts. District is always closeish, and IIRC includes Bloomington, which is trending Dem, but is not trending Dem as a whole.
Whitfield - wtf?
Graves - Sorry, don't know much about this district
Fossella - Only Rep district in NYC. Staten Island and White areas of SW Brooklyn. Voted for Clinton and Gore by decisive margins, but swung heavily Rep in 2004. Always Rep in state and city elections.
Taylor - came closeish to defeat in 2004 thanks to bad local economy and ethics troubles. If these latter have gone away, he's home free. If not, he may still be in trouble in 2006.
Ney - wtf?
Murphy - Sorry, no idea.

[minionofmidas]

My feeling is that Renzi is safe.  He easily defeated Paul Babbitt (brother of former Arizona Gov. & Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt) in the last election.  As for name recognition in rural Arizona, you don't get any higher than Babbitt.  Renzi actually has a very high approval rating in the Navajo reservation so even though they would vote Democrat if Renzi changes his mind about the gubenatorial race, I don't see them voting him out in the midterm.  Without the Navajo vote I don't see Democrats turning this seat on the Flagstaff college vote alone.

Zero chance without the Navajo vote.