Democrats "expand the map"

[zorkpolitics]

Previously the Republicans identified their 10 most vulnerable members:
Arizona   1   Rick Renzi
Colorado   4   Marilyn Musgrave
Colorado   7   Bob Beauprez
Connecticut  2   Rob Simmons
Indiana   9   Mike Sodrel
Kentucky   3   Anne Northup
Nevada   3   Jon Porter
Pennsylvania  8   Mike Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania  6   Jim Gerlach
Washington    8   Dave Reichert

Now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing radio ads in a dozen Congressional districts over the Memorial Day weekend.

Targeted Republicans include 8 members not on the Republican 10:
Rick Renzi of Arizona, Richard Pombo of California, Rob Simmons of Connecticut, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel, both of Indiana, Edward Whitfield of Kentucky, Sam Graves of Missouri, Vito Fossella of New York, Charles Taylor of North Carolina, Bob Ney of Ohio, Timothy Murphy of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington.

see:
http://www.ftimes.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=27401&TM=66391.28

Seems like the Democrats really believe their Delay bashing will give them a chance to win control of the House.  They only need to win 15 seats to get control and looks like they are dreaming of a reversal of 1994.

Frankly, they are nothing but dreams.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of the top of my head, CT and IA have 2-3 pickup possibilities each,  CO and PA have 1-2, and NM, IN, KY, NY each have 1.

[Jake]

Tim Murphy is safe against Logan, Hart is safe, Fitz is safe, Gerlach could go down, but not to Lois Murphy.

[minionofmidas]

Arizona   1   Rick Renzi
Conservative, first elected by only a narrow margin in 2002. Should be safe now, although might go in a midterm on a freakishly high Navajo turnout.
Colorado   4   Marilyn Musgrave
District would be safe for 90% of the Republican congressional delegation, but won't ever be for Musgrave. She's still always the favourite.
Colorado   7   Bob Beauprez
Also a Conservative, in a very closely divided district. Won by just a handful of votes in 2002. Not seriously challenged in 2004, which makes it impossible to judge how strong he is right now.
Connecticut  2   Rob Simmons
Most vulnerable of Conn's three Reps. Might go against a strong challenger.
Indiana   9   Mike Sodrel
District narrowly gained by Reps in 2004. I don't really see it returning to the Dems anytime soon. Certainly not after 2006.
Kentucky   3   Anne Northup
Keeps on winning, usually in close-ish races, in an otherwise extremely tight district. Has a personal vote, obviously.
Nevada   3   Jon Porter
Don't see this one changing hands.
Pennsylvania  8   Mike Fitzpatrick
Wouldn't rule it out, but should favor Reps.
Pennsylvania  6   Jim Gerlach
He's certainly having problems. I don't quite understand why.
Washington    8   Dave Reichert
Dems had a great chance to gain this one in 2004, when it was open, and squandered it. Becoming harder now. Certainly not impossible.

Targeted Republicans include 8 members not on the Republican 10:
Rick Renzi of Arizona, Richard Pombo of California, Rob Simmons of Connecticut, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel, both of Indiana, Edward Whitfield of Kentucky, Sam Graves of Missouri, Vito Fossella of New York, Charles Taylor of North Carolina, Bob Ney of Ohio, Timothy Murphy of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington.

Pombo - only Rep Rep from the Bay Area (although the district spans into the Nmost part of the Central Valley), in one of the richest districts in the Nation. The Valley part is trending Rep.
Hostettler - Al absolutely hates his guts. District is always closeish, and IIRC includes Bloomington, which is trending Dem, but is not trending Dem as a whole.
Whitfield - wtf?
Graves - Sorry, don't know much about this district
Fossella - Only Rep district in NYC. Staten Island and White areas of SW Brooklyn. Voted for Clinton and Gore by decisive margins, but swung heavily Rep in 2004. Always Rep in state and city elections.
Taylor - came closeish to defeat in 2004 thanks to bad local economy and ethics troubles. If these latter have gone away, he's home free. If not, he may still be in trouble in 2006.
Ney - wtf?
Murphy - Sorry, no idea.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Murphy is safe against Logan, Hart is safe, Fitz is safe, Gerlach could go down, but not to Lois Murphy.

I think Logan will put up a good fight, Hart is safe, Fitz is very likely to win, Gerlach could go down and yes, he could go down to Lois but it's unlikely.

[Jake]

The Dems would have to pull off freakishly high turnout in the lower Berks, Montco areas. Possible

[Keystone Phil]

The Dems would have to pull off freakishly high turnout in the lower Berks, Montco areas. Possible

Well it will be high with Rendell on the ballot but not high enough for her to win. It's still possible though.

[Alcon]

Am I the only one who feels that Renzi's seat is a useless target?

[Keystone Phil]

Why isn't Shays a target? He only won by four points last time.

[Alcon]

Why isn't Shays a target? He only won by four points last time.

Maybe my party has realized that it's good to not target moderates and end up making the majority party even more conservative.

Or maybe they prefer to mess up profoundly on targeting a seat like Renzi's. Probably that's it.

[TheresNoMoney]

Both NH seats are vulnerable with the right candidate.

[Alcon]

Both NH seats are vulnerable with the right candidate.

Seriously? NH-1 was over 60% for the Republican and I recall that NH-2 was a pretty darn big margin too...

[PBrunsel]

The Dems should focus on Nussle's seat after he runs for Governor in 2006. They could pick it up.

[TheresNoMoney]

Seriously? NH-1 was over 60% for the Republican and I recall that NH-2 was a pretty darn big margin too...

Bass got 59% over a no-name candidate and Bradley in NH-1 beat a horrendous candidate with no political experience. The candidate in NH-1 in 2006 will be strong (Peter Sullivan).

Bradley is more vulnerable than Bass. Also, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard is being closed in Bradley's district, which will be a big issue.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

CO-07 is by far the best Dem pick-up opportunity right now.   Beauprez is almost certain to run for Governor, and the District now has a definite Dem leaning new to recent population shifts...that's why the GOP tries so hard to redistrict in 2004.   Plus, my impression is there are no strong Republicans showing interest in the race.

Kennedy's seat in Minnesota is also a great chance for the Democrats.  Hopefully, Patty Wetterling will drop out of the Senate race and move into a race where she would actually win.

[TheresNoMoney]

Hopefully, Patty Wetterling will drop out of the Senate race and move into a race where she would actually win.

Agreed.

[No more McShame]

My feeling is that Renzi is safe.  He easily defeated Paul Babbitt (brother of former Arizona Gov. & Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt) in the last election.  As for name recognition in rural Arizona, you don't get any higher than Babbitt.  Renzi actually has a very high approval rating in the Navajo reservation so even though they would vote Democrat if Renzi changes his mind about the gubenatorial race, I don't see them voting him out in the midterm.  Without the Navajo vote I don't see Democrats turning this seat on the Flagstaff college vote alone.

[bgwah]

Reichert effectively used a fear campaign against his opponent. His commercials were little children playing on streets, then Muslim fundy terrorists, and an evil picture of Dave Ross. Lolololol.

Vote Republican or your children will die!

[TeePee4Prez]

The Dems would have to pull off freakishly high turnout in the lower Berks, Montco areas. Possible

Well it will be high with Rendell on the ballot but not high enough for her to win. It's still possible though.

Rendell will have a high turnout there.  Likely Dem pcikup.

[minionofmidas]

My feeling is that Renzi is safe.  He easily defeated Paul Babbitt (brother of former Arizona Gov. & Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt) in the last election.  As for name recognition in rural Arizona, you don't get any higher than Babbitt.  Renzi actually has a very high approval rating in the Navajo reservation so even though they would vote Democrat if Renzi changes his mind about the gubenatorial race, I don't see them voting him out in the midterm.  Without the Navajo vote I don't see Democrats turning this seat on the Flagstaff college vote alone.

Zero chance without the Navajo vote.

[muon2]

Previously the Republicans identified their 10 most vulnerable members:
Arizona   1   Rick Renzi
Colorado   4   Marilyn Musgrave
Colorado   7   Bob Beauprez
Connecticut  2   Rob Simmons
Indiana   9   Mike Sodrel
Kentucky   3   Anne Northup
Nevada   3   Jon Porter
Pennsylvania  8   Mike Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania  6   Jim Gerlach
Washington    8   Dave Reichert

Now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing radio ads in a dozen Congressional districts over the Memorial Day weekend.

Targeted Republicans include 8 members not on the Republican 10:
Rick Renzi of Arizona, Richard Pombo of California, Rob Simmons of Connecticut, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel, both of Indiana, Edward Whitfield of Kentucky, Sam Graves of Missouri, Vito Fossella of New York, Charles Taylor of North Carolina, Bob Ney of Ohio, Timothy Murphy of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington.

see:
http://www.ftimes.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=27401&TM=66391.28

Seems like the Democrats really believe their Delay bashing will give them a chance to win control of the House.  They only need to win 15 seats to get control and looks like they are dreaming of a reversal of 1994.

Frankly, they are nothing but dreams.

The ad campaign was directed at the vote to extend health benefits for reservists to match those for active duty. It is perhaps intended to go after those Republicans that were in districts where that issue was thought to resonate. So it may not match up with the most vulnerable list. Future ads may target other Reps on other votes.

[Keystone Phil]

The Dems would have to pull off freakishly high turnout in the lower Berks, Montco areas. Possible

Well it will be high with Rendell on the ballot but not high enough for her to win. It's still possible though.

Rendell will have a high turnout there.  Likely Dem pcikup.

But not as high as 2004. Likely GOP hold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hostettler - Extremist sleazy scumbag who deserves to crash and burn. The bloody eigth is a turnout effected district; Dems do well in the old mining areas and also Bloomington but turnout has usually been higher in the more agricultural areas of late. Will depend on candidates.
Whitfield - District is dominated by Dixiecrats and there are a lot of powerful state politics players based in that area. Still, Whitfield's done a good job of digging himself in and unless a high profile Dixiecrat runs he's safe.
Taylor - Ethics issues have actually got *worse* of late... if the Democrats can get a better candidate than last time (she was based in the wrong part of the district) he's in serious trouble. He might self-destruct anyways...
Ney - Waste of money. Ney used to win the old 18th. Not many Republicans could have done that... and his new district should be safe for any Republican and especially him.

[Cubby]

Why isn't Shays a target? He only won by four points last time.

I can't speak for the party. But I'm a CT Democrat and I think Shays is pretty good, regardless of affiliation. It was great of him to denounce De Lay earlier this year. He's always a moderate on social issues, and those are what matter to me.

What pisses me off is how Simmons got re-elected the past 2 times (CT-2). The GOP really did put a lot of effort into his campaign though. I'd love to get rid of that guy, I don't know what he's done to keep his job in so short a career.

[Frodo]

Washington    8   Dave Reichert
Dems had a great chance to gain this one in 2004, when it was open, and squandered it. Becoming harder now. Certainly not impossible.

I was rather disappointed with the cast of Democratic candidates that were put up for that seat when Jennifer Dunn vacated it -virtually none of them were what one might call rising politicians.  I didn't even have to know what they looked like before passing judgment on them as being a particularly mediocre cast of characters.  The fact that I don't even remember their names, or other details about them despite the fact I paid relatively close attention to this race should say volumes on how unmemorable they were.     

I wonder why the Washington state Democratic Party put up such mediocre characters when they had such a great chance to expand their 6-3 congressional delegation majority to 7 to 2 when the demographics in the 8th district were in their favor, leaving Republicans exiled in Eastern Washington.