The Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Oh, btw, it is now impossible for the Tories to hit 200. Unless a miracle has happened and they take one of those three Northern Irish seats they're standing in.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, btw, it is now impossible for the Tories to hit 200. Unless a miracle has happened and they take one of those three Northern Irish seats they're standing in.

Official: Howard worse leader than Foot

Oh, I agree. Also, Thatcher worse leader than Foot.

[minionofmidas]

Adams cracked 70%, and the opposition is split. I'd have to check, but that makes West Belfast a strong contender for "safest seat in the UK".

[minionofmidas]

And I should add the UUP got 2.3%

[minionofmidas]

Somethings that no one else has pointed out:

1. Labour held Dorset South!
2. This is the first election since 1918 where Gravesham hasn't backed either the winner of the PV or the overall election.

1)Good on Jim Knight!

2) I believe it was the only one of Labour's 8 Kent seats not to go Tory!

Er, no. Labour held up very well in Kent. They still got 6 or 7.
EDIT - That's what you meant to write. Just recognized that now. The only one of Labour's 8 Kent seats to go Tory.

[minionofmidas]

And since they're still not finished, probably not just one recount as well...

[minionofmidas]

Where are the other 17 NI results? I seem to believe they were pouring in by this time 4 years ago.

[minionofmidas]

YAAAAY! SDLP gain South Belfast!

[minionofmidas]

Paisley reelected, margin up.

[minionofmidas]

N Belfast easy DUP hold.
Antrim E massive DUP gain.

[minionofmidas]

I thought Paisley is elected, but never actually sits in Parliament.

No, that's SF.

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UU - moderate Unionist, Conservative on other issues
DUP - hardline Unionist, ultra-Conservative or Populist on other issues
SDLP - moderate Nationalist, Labourish on other issues
SF - hardcore Nationalist, hard to peg on other issues
Alliance - supposedly nonsectarian, basically the party of Protestant non-Unionists.

[minionofmidas]

E Belfast easy DUP hold (duh).

[minionofmidas]

YAAAAY! SDLP gain South Belfast!

Thanks to the DUP, it appears...

Or rather thanks to the UU...most people had tipped the DUP to gain the seat. I actually thought the UU might keep this one. It's the middle class side of Belfast basically, doesn't strike me as DUP hunting grounds. Clear Protestant majority, I don't think the SDLP can last more than one term (Prots will unite behind one candidate again). Most of the little remaining unsegregated housing in the Belfast area is in this constituency, btw.

[minionofmidas]

I am reading this correctly - is Hampshire East registering 90% turnout?!?!?

I suppose those "If ONE in TEN" ad campaigns worked.  But for the wrong team!  If the Democrats ever get wise to that strategy we'll be in trouble.  I think the game here is to supress voter turnout, and both parties are pretty good at it, so I'm not going to worry about that just yet.

wow, I just looked at the hebrides maps to see how my eponym's homeland voted.  My guess is that The Real Angus McCloud must have been the only plutocrat in that part of the world.  I did not realize...

The Hebrides are very working class, yes. Last remaining textiles cottage industries in Western Europe, which explains why Harris Tweed is so expensive.
Also very evangelical, Sabbath observance and whatnot. I think you can't actually get off the islands on sundays.

[minionofmidas]

Like in England, actually, if it's a direct candidate.  Even though that's utterly ridiculous given our voting system.
At least that's how it is with Hessen state elections, the only case of a candidate dying that I can remember. Back in 1991, the far-right Republikaner candidate for one of the Bergstráße seats got killed in a car crash a week before the election. On polling day, people in the constituency only cast their proportional vote. they cast their direct vote some weeks later, on a minimal turnout o/c. All this so the Reps had time to nominate a replacement candidate. As I said, ridiculous.

[minionofmidas]

Can someone tell me why the DUP is up so high in NI?  Why, after so much progress for peace, are people voting for an extremist whacko party?  Do these people want to go back to war?

They want peace, but only at no cost whatsoever to themselves. Maybe they have still not bled enough. Maybe what Northern Ireland needs is troubles mark 2 with the UK government as firmly at the Nats side as it used to be at the Unionst side once upon a time. [/pessimism]

[minionofmidas]

DUP, easy hold "London"derry East.
SF, easy hold Bobby Sands Memorial, with UU replaced as runners-up by DUP.
Not looking good for the remaining Ulster Unionists...

[minionofmidas]

Look again. That "swing" is a purely statistical thing, "change winner minus change runner-up divide by 2". It does not actually provide a measure of what happened. The DUP hadn't run here last time. It's votes come from the UUP.

[minionofmidas]

Look again. That "swing" is a purely statistical thing, "change winner minus change runner-up divide by 2". It does not actually provide a measure of what happened. The DUP hadn't run here last time. It's votes come from the UUP.

Oh, ok. That makes more sense. I thought 12% of the N Irish electorate was just psychotic.

While that is certainly true, it's not at fault here.

[minionofmidas]

W Tyrone is in.
SF hold, Deeny second on 28%, DUP third, SDLP fourth on 10%, UUP last, retain deposit.

[minionofmidas]

Harrow is all Labour now (large Indian and Jewish populations).

He may have meant Harlow.
No. I don't know why Harlow is still out.
The two Harrow seats are still sort of marginal, btw.

[minionofmidas]

Trimble has LOST

Lost big too. Not quite as big as Beggs but certainly big.

[minionofmidas]

By a system similar to that of parliament, ie council majority leaders.

[minionofmidas]

With 12 out of 18 Northern Irish seats up, they line up as follows:
DUP 36.2% (+13.7%, in these constituencies that is, not compared to all of NI 01) 7 seats (+3)
SF 22.4 (+1.7) 3 seats (no change)
UUP 20.7 (-9.2) 1 seats (-4)
SDLP 12.8 (+3.9) 1 seat (+1)
Alliance 4.5 (+1.2) no seats, no change

[minionofmidas]

I've just found out that the Harlow count has been suspended until tomorrow - apparently it is really that close; Lead is presently with Labour but it may be no more than a few dozen.

More likely Torbay/Winchester-sized. A few dozen isn't that close.