Would you accept this AZ map as a compromise, or urge your team fight on?

[minionofmidas]

Lolno

[minionofmidas]

Torie's AZ-2 is a Dem pack that happens to be 50.1% Hispanic. It's not a Hispanic pack in any way. It also splits a reservation, of course.
The Phoenix seat is similarly drawn - going after Dem precincts, not Hispanic precincts, Retroceding out of "protected" Hispanic areas as a result. (The added advantage is, of course, that White Liberal precincts have higher turnout, so the net vote gain for Republicans for the remainder is greater.)

[minionofmidas]

And your Tucson cut is pretty hilarious as well. It includes some precincts that are like 70% white, but had another characteristic that would make them "appropriate" to put in the mustachioed man's district as you saw it.

The really fun part is that mustachio man lvery much wants at least some of them in there.

[minionofmidas]

Giffords' as the most R of the three marginals... 51.2% McCain. 1st is down to 50.1%. That's pretty much the ideal version for Democrats. And makes sense in Pinal and Cochise. (It's 48% White, 24% Native, 24% Hispanic... majority White VAP though.) 8th is 50.0% McCain. 3rd is 59% Obama, 56% Hispanic VAP. 7th is 65% Obama. At 56.5% McCain, the 6th is less Republican than the other three safe seats - it still includes those East Central White Phoenix Dems that Torie wants to give to Pastor and the Commission wants to give to the "marginal" Maricopa district.

[minionofmidas]

The purpose of this map is what Lewis?  Just asking.  

I would accept it. (Incidentally, while I admit to being biased in favor of Northeast Arizona, the perfect Dem map there happened partly as an accident, the Indian Rezzes in NE Maricopa being the nearest thing to the right kind of population I needed.


Oy vey, Lol. I just notice something about the map... Page. I drew that at one point trying to see if I could get it balanced that way, but I thought I'd undone it. Later on it would have been continuously offscreen. I'll see if I can change that.

EDIT: Ah, I see now. I undid Page but not the rural precincts west of the river. Make a degree of sense, actually, and besides it avoids the annoying (in the pet peeve sense) issue of Kaibab not being its own precinct.

[minionofmidas]

Alternate version. Better for Republicans (1st 51.3, 2nd 52.0, 8th still 50.0.)

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't accept it. See you in court Lewis.

You think there would have been an impeachment if Republicans didn't suspect they'll be laughed out of court? I don't.
It's why Brewer "had to act" (actual quote!) before the map was finalized.

[minionofmidas]

Given the parameters of the commission; I don't see how the marginal Maricopa district should not contain either:

1. Tempe + Scottsdale + parts of Mesa (~53% McCain)
2. Tempe + Chandler + parts of Mesa (~52% McCain)

Ahwatukee can't very well go anywhere else, so it's necessarily includes part of Phoenix. And I suppose technically two parts of Phoenix are not an additional municipal split at all... (That's not what I drew though. No, actually in the first iteration I have a couple of precincts there because it looked cleaner than going further north in Scottsdale, but in the second I removed that bug.)
Then, my map puts the split of Pinal in the most logical place. I don't see why that should be subordinate to the Maricopa municipalities, seeing as it's just one extra split there (Mesa and Scottsdale... and Scottsdale could theoretically be avoided by just including a ream of Phoenix instead, though that'll look drop-dead ugly.
The Commission map places Apache Junction in the wraparound though, in order to push some R territory out of the East Central Maricopa district into the far eastern one. That's how they got it down to the edge of strong lean D.

As to Muon... no, I don't think I'd agree with any three-way split of Pima County if it were down to me - not even as a feature of a Dem gerry (as in the Commission plan). It's a perfectly unnecessary thing to do. If Cochise is split at all, it should be as in my first map here, but not splitting it is preferable (and placing it wholly in the 1st makes for a Dem gerry of Tucson - Giffords then has to either take Hispanic parts of the city or outer Pinal.)

The numbers? Currently of the three expressly marginal districts, one was intended to tilt Dem (but didn't at all, as it turned out - the 1st), one to tilt R (5th) and one to be very very even (8th). Of course, that was when there was a larger difference between statewide and presidential voting patterns. I'm not sure I'd accept 52.3% McCain as even or use the same figure for everywhere, but it'll do I suppose... if you balance the three marginal districts (summed) to actually vote roughly that way. Two ~55% McCain districts in addition to four (so, one more than previously) safe R seats won't fly. That's not that much more Republican than mine are, of course, though it is a bit so.
Though I wouldn't sign off on any map after looking at partisan figures alone.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, a Pinal-based district. That is an interesting, and I guess a valid, alternative, and makes the three-way split of Pima more comprehensible.
I echo Torie's demand. Some of Maricopa looks very odd at first glance, and I also wonder which district has what voting result.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, I redrew it with some amendations: Dudleyville area (split between Gila and Pinal Counties) united in the rural district; Santa Cruz unsplit (given to Grijalva); Mojave instead of Yavapai split (I don't think this has much of a partisan effect. Kingman is in the rural district, Bullhead and Havasu are in the west Maricopa district); Phoenix Hispanic district much as at current rather than with that eastern tentacle; Mesa unsplit except for the eastern end - muon's map seems to be doing seriously weird things there. Created a very compact-looking Mesa (-eastern edge)/Gilbert (-eastern edge)/Chandler (-western edge) district as a result.
Glendale is three way split in this map, which is unfortunate. Just as in Muon's map, Yuma is not split - splitting Pima three ways makes it easily avoidable.



Imagine about 1000 voters from the Brooks Farm precinct split off the Pinal district and put in with Mesa/Gilbert/Chandler.

Dewar 55.1% McCain
Giffords 50.2% McCain
Grijalva 58.1% Obama, 56.8% Hispanic VAP (note I don't have Gila River in there)
Schweikert 52.6% McCain
Pastor 65.3% Obama, 58.4% Hispanic VAP
Republican districts (West to East) 60.6, 58.3, 58.6, 59.9% McCain. I think Franks is in the second of those and Quayle is paired with Schweikert, not sure though.

And then I redrew the yellow/teal split in Phoenix to be more favorable for Dems.



59.1 v 51.5 McCain. And quite certain now that Quayle as well as Schweikert is in the marginal district.
And we're on territory where I would be ready to accept a deal despite losing the battle on the rural district.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis, your Phoenix thing is never going to be drawn by a court. 

The latter one? Probably not, no.