Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Storr]

"Slovak PM Robert Fico voiced his support for Hungary's Viktor Orbán, criticizing Brussels for trying to “punish” Budapest over its stance on funds for Ukraine."

"“As long as I am the head of the Slovak government, I will never agree that a country should be punished for fighting for its sovereignty. I will never agree with such an attack on Hungary,” Fico said Tuesday during a joint press conference with Orbán [in Budapest]."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1747331406080946472?s=20

[Storr]

Some news.

1. Related to the above:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1747316359430619601

As the tweet says, Radačovský is an MP elected on the SNS list, although he got in only after the election when two other elected-with-SNS-but-not-from-SNS MPs got appointed ministers, and an MEP elected on the ĽSNS list; the other ĽSNS MEP was Milan Uhrík, now leader of Republika. He's the leader of his own one-man band of a far-right party, Slovak Patriot. He also declared he's going to run for President, saying he wants to get the 15 MPs' signatures he needs from SNS and Smer.

Also, one amazing bit that the tweet doesn't mention is "if we Slavs unite, one day we'll turn everything from Tatras to Šumava to La Manche into a lawn."

90s Easter...excuse me Central Europe, cocaine, and illegal firearms? *pretends to be shocked*




Radačovský's opinion on the death penalty:

"Today, the whole nation is against the death penalty, but if they announced the execution on the square in Bratislava, everyone would run there to see it. And the journalists would be the first ones there. I also used to think that the death penalty was the worst. But a life sentence is worse. That's torture. Imagine that you are thirty years old and then you are in one room for ten, twenty years and you are also guarded so that you don't hurt yourself. That is something terrible. Does the state have the power to torture people?"

[Storr]

"Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Tuesday that “there’s no war in Kyiv,” describing life in Ukraine’s capital as “absolutely normal.”

“Do you really think there is war in Kyiv? I hope you’re not serious … life there is absolutely normal,” Fico told a press conference when asked why he’s not meeting Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Ukraine’s largest city, where he might better grasp the impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war."

...

"The Slovak leader’s controversial remarks about safety in Ukraine’s capital came the same day Russia attacked the country with 41 missiles, leaving several people dead in Kyiv and Kharkiv, dozens injured, and infrastructure in ruins."

[Storr]

"Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Tuesday that “there’s no war in Kyiv,” describing life in Ukraine’s capital as “absolutely normal.”

“Do you really think there is war in Kyiv? I hope you’re not serious … life there is absolutely normal,” Fico told a press conference when asked why he’s not meeting Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Ukraine’s largest city, where he might better grasp the impact of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war."

...

"The Slovak leader’s controversial remarks about safety in Ukraine’s capital came the same day Russia attacked the country with 41 missiles, leaving several people dead in Kyiv and Kharkiv, dozens injured, and infrastructure in ruins."

Fico is essentially a clone of Orban.

Or maybe he's bipolar?

"Fico, just days after questioning Ukraine's sovereignty, claimed there were only “minor” political differences with Kyiv, which were part of “political life”, adding: “We really want to assist you, we really want to help you.”""

To be serious, I'd guess his anti-Ukrainian/Russian propaganda statements are for his domestic audience and political base. While his more warm and fuzzy "we want to help you" comments are aimed at western/NATO countries. Fico doesn't want to end up in a position where the EU is withholding money, as happened for Hungary and Poland. Slovakia is small enough where it would be difficult to go without those EU funds.

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1750165961427079573?s=20

[Storr]

We now have the final list of the 11 candidates – all men – running for president.

[snip]

Štefan Harabin (independent), minister of justice and chief justice in Fico's first government, likely the main far-right candidate, conspiracy theorist, kinda nuts in general, pro-Russia, Alex Jones-esque far-right

[snip]

There's nothing more representative of traditional conservative pan-slavic values than being best buds with an Albanian drug lord:

"In 2008, a transcript of a telephone conversation from 1994 between Štefan Harabin and the Albanian drug lord Baki Sadiki  was published."

"Transcript of interview from September 17, 1994:

Sadiki: Stefan Harabin?

Harabin: Yes.

Sadiki: I didn't recognize you at all by your voice, you know.

Harabin: Well, the phone changes its voice a little. What's new?

Sadiki: Nothing, I'm just calling to see how you are.

Harabin: Where are you calling from? Out?

Sadiki: Hey, from Smokovec.

Harabin: Well, did you arrive well?

Sadiki: Hey, okay, okay.

Harabin: Well, thank God.

Sadiki: How are you at home? Son, ok, is he holding on?

Harabin: Okay, hey.

Sadiki: What time do you work today?

Harabin: I do that until about four.

Sadiki: When will you come? You do not know?

Harabin: Well, listen, it looks like we probably wouldn't be the first to come now, because there are elections. Coincidentally, the president of the court from Poprad was also here on Wednesday, that friend of mine, I told you, well, we canceled the soccer game, that it won't be on the thirty-first, but the first, because there are elections, and there is an emergency at the district court because of that title, because people can object, voter lists, etc. and the court has to hold on Saturdays and Sundays, you know. So we can't go, so maybe next week, a week later. But I, I don't know if I won't come that week anyway.

Sadiki: Come on, I'd love to.

Harabin: I still have to take care of my things there and I want to go see my daughter.

Sadiki: Come, I'm at home, you can come anytime.

...

Sadiki: Okay, if you come, please call me, hey?

Harabin: I have that number, this is valid.

Sadiki: You have a number, you understand, when you arrive in Poprad or earlier, call and I will pick you up at the station, you understand. So we agreed. Milan is not there somewhere?

Harabin: It's not there, but I can go look.

Sadiki: I call him and no one answers.

Harabin: Doesn't he take? And should I leave him a message?

Sadiki: Nothing, just saying hello to him.

Harabin: It could be that he didn't come from lunch, because that's just the time for lunch, 2 o'clock, you know, I just didn't go to lunch because I'm studying the files, so I'm here and maybe he went to lunch, but it could be that he took also a vacation, because yesterday was a day off, a public holiday, so he didn't go to work today either.

Sadiki : Okay, fine, I just wanted to know when you're coming, but when you come, call me, hey.

Harabin: Good.

Sadiki: Okay, but hello Milana, hey.

Harabin: Hey. Hi.

The conversation is cut short."

[Storr]

Vazil Hudák was Slovakia's Minister of Economy during Fico's second government. A sure sign that he must be completely innocent and not at all corrupt:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fraud-olaf-investigation-european-investment-bank-vazil-hudak-loan-budapest-airport/

"The EU’s anti-fraud office OLAF is investigating allegations of "serious misconduct" by staff at the European Investment Bank over a €200 million loan granted to Budapest Airport in 2018, according to an internal document about the probe seen by POLITICO.

OLAF investigators quizzed ex-EIB Vice President Vazil Hudák in Brussels earlier this month as a "person concerned" in approving the loan, according to the document. He was also questioned about his election to the airport's executive board over concerns that he failed to respect a required “cooling off” period for job moves that could pose conflicts of interest.

Hudák's questioning follows a complaint made to OLAF, seen by POLITICO, that alleges he could have received “personal benefits” from the loan’s approval.

Hudák — a former Slovakian economy minister who headed up the bank's Central and Eastern Europe division from October 2016 to October 2019 and moved to Budapest Airport’s board in 2020 — rejected the accusation as “misleading” and "simply untrue.""

[Storr]

"Slovak defence minister Robert Kalinjak said on TV that instead of sending their troops to Ukraine, NATO countries should send “cowardly Ukrainian men” there, meaning refugees who fled conscription. So very Eastern Europe - when one’s pro-peace (or pro-war) position is based neither on values, nor on vision, only on short-term need to score domestic support."

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1767164950496137660?s=20

[Storr]

Slovakia (Presidential election), FOCUS poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 34% (-1)
Korčok (*): 33% (-1)
Harabin (*): 13% (+2)
Matovič (Slovensko-EPP): 5%
Kubiš (*): 5%
Forró (MA-EPP): 3%
Danko (SNS-ID): 3%
Kotleba (ĽSNS-NI): 2% (-1)
Dubovský (ZĽ-EPP): 2%
Švec (SHO-*): 1% (new)

+/- vs. 14-21 February 2024

Fieldwork: 7-11 March 2024
Sample size: 1,010

Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), FOCUS poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 56% (+1)
Korčok (*): 44% (-1)

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 73% (-3)
Harabin (*): 27% (+3)

Korčok (*): 56% (-7)
Harabin (*): 44% (+7)

+/- vs. 14-21 February 2024

Fieldwork: 7-11 March 2024
Sample size: 1,010

[Storr]

In campaign news, something is finally happening. There will be one debate between Pellegrini and Korčok on Monday. There will also be a Kubiš-Forró and a Matovič-Harabin debate on Sunday. On Wednesday RTVS will revive their infamous 90s format with every candidate on stage at once, which will most likely end up as a chaotic four hour shouting match. This is a huge contrast to literally dozens of debates last year, but because these will be the only interesting thing in an otherwise dull campaign and not just a small part of an utter mayhem like they were in September, they might actually have an impact.

Well, about that. Kubiš didn't come because of "a planned trip abroad", so the first debate was just an interview with Forró (who was late because of a traffic jam). Harabin didn't come because "my main opponents are the two frontrunners", so the second debate was just an interview with Matovič (who was late because of a traffic jam). I didn't watch the Pelle-Korčok duel, but I've seen it described as "neither dominated and neither wanted to blunder", which probably sums it up. I'm not holding my breath for the last one.

Is Bratislava traffic actually bad enough it's conceivable two Presidential candidates could have been late to their television debates due to it, or is that excuse a load of garbage?

[Storr]

It is currently 5:15pm in Slovakia: "The election moratorium will be extended by 20 minutes, so it will last until 10:20 p.m. throughout Slovakia. The reason is the collapse of a member of the commission in one of the electoral districts in Senec. This was announced by the chairman of the state election commission, Eduard Burda. (tasar)"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900805/

[Storr]

[snip]

It is currently 5:15pm in Slovakia: "The election moratorium will be extended by 20 minutes, so it will last until 10:20 p.m. throughout Slovakia. The reason is the collapse of a member of the commission in one of the electoral districts in Senec. This was announced by the chairman of the state election commission, Eduard Burda. (tasar)"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900805/

Shame, I was hoping for a repeat of this from last time round:

The polls have just closed, but we aren't gonna results for a while. Voting has been extended in a village in the east of the country, where a drunk local councillor stole the ballot box, opened it and threw out the 285 ballots that were inside (they managed to collect them afterwards). The results can't be released until every polling station has closed. Still, lol.

[snip]

I doubt the latest delay is as hilarious as that moratorium extension from 2019. At least we can always imagine. What caused "the delay of the chairman of the district commission", did he sleep in?

"The election moratorium is extended by half an hour until 10:30 p.m. , the Ministry of the Interior informed. The reason is the late opening of the polling station in the village of Norovce (Topoľčany district) by 30 minutes, which was caused by the delay of the chairman of the district commission.

The polling station in this village will therefore be open until 10:30 p.m."

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900872/?ref=mpm

[Storr]

A true man of the people:

"Štefan Harabin spends election night in a local restaurant in Bratislava's Mlynská dolina. "I come from 10 children, I have lived modestly all my life, I continue in this style of life," Harabin described the choice of space near the student dormitories.

"I had a very good day - the sun was shining in the morning, that was good, I had time to ride my bike, I had a cigar in the afternoon," Harabin evaluated his election day."

"Among those present is Juraj Krajčík, the father of the Zámocká [2022 shooting at a Bratislava gay bar] murderer"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3901139/?ref=mpm

[Storr]

"After counting 64 percent of the votes, Denník N's projection confirms that Ivan Korčok should win the first round.

Korčok currently leads in the west and north of Slovakia and also in the vicinity of Košice, Banská Bystrica and Zvolen. The map also shows what percentage of precincts are included in each district. Bratislava is only partially counted so far, which confirms that Korčok will continue to grow. According to expectations, Forró will win in the districts of Dunajská Streda and Komárno.

Korčok's lead is also increasing according to the projection of the SME daily, in which it reaches almost three percentage points."

https://dennikn.sk/prezidentske-volby-2024/?ref=mwat

[Storr]

Harabin getting a lower percentage than he received in 2019, despite two candidates withdrawing and endorsing him in the days right before the election, is a mostly meaningless yet pleasantly surprising outcome. (He's currently at 11.89%, got 14.35% in 2019.)

[Storr]

A Politico EU article visiting Luník IX, a Roma neighborhood on the outskirts of Košice. They discuss why it, and more broadly Slovakia as a whole, has such abysmal turnout in EU elections.

"Jozef Fratel’s day started with a trip to a communal water pipe sticking out from the soot-covered wall of his building.

The unemployed 47-year-old lives in a flat with his girlfriend and their young son. There was electricity but no running water.

The last time he voted in an election of any kind was “maybe” 20 years ago.

Like most people in Luník IX, an impoverished Roma neighborhood on the outskirts of Slovakia’s second-largest city, Košice, he was not planning to vote in the upcoming European election.

It doesn’t make sense for him to vote, because the European Union has changed absolutely nothing in his life, Fratel said.'"

...

"Only 137 out of 4,419 registered voters in Luník IX took part in the 2019 EU election — a 3.1 percent turnout.

The neighborhood is tucked away on a hillside, under a giant open landfill, separated from the rest of the city by a freeway.

Most locals do not own cars. To get to the city center for groceries or to deal with administrative work, they have to take a special bus, segregated from the rest of the city’s public transport system.

Locals say they have seen some improvements in recent years, spurred by a new mayor who is from the Roma community and by non-governmental organizations."

...

"When Horváthová moved to Luník IX at age 15, not everyone there was Roma. But following a 1995 resolution from Košice municipal council, white people moved downtown, while Roma people living in the city — as well as non-rent payers and people deemed “socially inept” — had to relocate to Luník IX.

Today, 99 percent of Luník IX’s population is Roma — including Mayor Marcel Šaňa.

“I don’t like to call it a ghetto, but that’s what this resolution made it,” Šaňa said as echoes of Roma folk music permeated from the window of his office, located in the heart of the borough. "

...

"Most candidates don’t visit Roma settlements. And when Roma issues are brought up during campaigns or by politicians, it’s often in a negative way.

In 2019, Prime Minister Robert Fico, then in the opposition, publicly defended Milan Mazurek, a far-right lawmaker who had recently been convicted for making racist comments about Roma people.

“Mazurek only said what nearly a whole nation thinks,” Fico said in a video on Facebook. “Should we be afraid to say that part of the Roma people abuse the social system?”

And, back in Luník IX, the few Slovak politicians who do show interest in Roma issues have left behind a history of broken promises.

“When the elections are coming, they want the Gypsy vote,” said Matúš Pohlok. “But then when they are already sitting, then they forget about the minority,” the 40-year-old construction worker added."

[Storr]

RTVS poll: Korčok 51.1%, Pellegrini 48.9%, turnout estimate 55%.

After last year’s parliamentary exit polling flop, I’ve learned not to get my hopes up when it comes to Slovak polling. Despite that, it’s not a bad thing that Korčok is leading in an exit poll.

[Storr]

Denník N model projection has it at PP 50.4%, Korcok 49.6%.
Way too close to call.

Currently they have it at PP 51.8%, Korcok 48.2%.

[Storr]

Yikes. Tough year for Slovakia's liberals, pro-Westerners, and generally pro-sanity people.

I can’t wait for all of the “Is Slovakia the next Hungary?” panic articles.

Edit: While obviously this result isn’t good for Slovakia’s democracy. At least Fico and his band of clowns do not have a supermajority like Fidesz in Hungary after the 2010 election. So they cannot enact Constitutional changes similar to Hungary which have allowed Orban to keep power.

Edit 2: After looking it up, evidently a Constitutional majority is 2/3 in Hungary, while 3/5 in Slovakia. Only a 60% majority needed to change the Constitution feels low to me, but what do I know?

[Storr]

It seems very fitting that the only referendum in Slovakia's history to not have failed due to insufficient turnout was the 2003 one on joining the EU. Even it could only muster 52.12% turnout, surprisingly close to the 50% referendum validity threshold.