Why did Will County, IL trend R? (user search)
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  Why did Will County, IL trend R? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Will County, IL trend R?  (Read 706 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,441
India


Political Matrix
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« on: June 05, 2021, 08:04:14 AM »

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,441
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2021, 08:15:57 AM »

I'm not sure "trend" is the right word for Will County.

2016 - Trump: 43.6% - Clinton: 49.9%
2020 - Trump: 44.9% - Biden: 53.2%

Trump indeed outperformed his 2016 vote-share by 1.3 pts., but Biden increased Hillary's vote-share by 3.3 points.  Also, roughly 41,000 more votes were cast in the county during the 2020 Prezi vs. 2016.  

So if I had to guess, I'd say that high turnout was the catalyst for the increases in vote-share.  But again, I wouldn't say that the county trended R -- at least to a statistically significant degree.  
It was more to the right of the national environment than last time, therefore it trended R. Which is weird, considering the other surrounding collar counties trended D:


Ah! Thank you, Woodbury.  Was unaware that "trended" referred to a comparison vs. national environment. 
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