AJC/UGA - GA: TIED (user search)
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  AJC/UGA - GA: TIED (search mode)
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Author Topic: AJC/UGA - GA: TIED  (Read 1693 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,423
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« on: October 26, 2020, 05:01:30 AM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 05:31:55 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

*Reporting this as a tie based on the non-rounded topline -- sorry, guys!*

(Oct. 14-23 // 1,145 LV // MOE:  4%)

With rounding:  

Biden 47%
Trump 46%
Jorgensen 3%
Undecided 4%

Without rounding:  

Biden 46.5% (-0.5)
Trump 46.2% (-1.1)
Jorgensen 2.9% (+1.5)
Undecided 4.4% (n/c)

*Non-rounded changes based on poll conducted from Sep. 11-20*

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,423
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 05:24:11 AM »

The margin is within the margin of error. It's not that.

Their last poll was Trump+2.

On the other hand the previous two Landmark polls were Biden+2, then Trump+2, now Trump+4.


Correction. The last AJC poll was actually Trump+1 and it is now Biden+less than 1.
Not much of a movement at all.


My bad! I was going off the interactive poll results page instead of the toplines.  Skye is right, though -- in such a potentially close race, it's best to include the exact numbers. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,423
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 05:43:26 AM »

I just looked for their final 2016 polls for fun and the top headline was literally the exact same lol.  “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in GA” it was Trump +2 btw

Yup, was Trump +2 (44-42-9).  It undershot Trump's final vote-share by around six, Clinton's by around three, and overshot Johnson's vote-share by around six.  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,423
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 05:52:21 AM »

Also (and my apologies if I read your post wrong -- immunology has fried my brain): in response to a poster who claimed that Biden was not doing any more in-person campaigning across the next week:

Quote
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is headed to Georgia on Tuesday, part of a late effort by the campaign to flip a state that Republicans have carried in every White House contest since 1996.

The former vice president will deliver remarks Tuesday afternoon in Warm Springs on “bringing Americans together to address the crises facing our nation,” his campaign said, before an evening drive-in rally in Atlanta to encourage Georgians to cast their ballots during the last week of early voting.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,423
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 07:37:49 AM »



Is it common polling methodology to not even look for new/first time voters?  Seems problematic, at least in a high-turnout presidential year.


How do you seek out first-time voters?
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