COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

That Paulding High School pic is giving me flashbacks to opening day of classes from my own high school career....except we were all wearing uniforms.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It will go away like things go away...

Can you go away, please?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I kinda want to open schools just to spite teacher unions but ik its probably too risky of an idea(by spite teacher unions I mean ones in Oakland that want to limit live online instruction to 2 hours a day)

Always respect your posts, lfromnj, but this is pretty distasteful.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1291714264554786817

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1291715108243230721

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Theresa Lyons, who sits on the Paulding County BOE, suggested students change seats every 14 mins to get around this.

Brilliant! Just brilliant! Absolutely amazing work. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

One of the items in today's Political Insider blog at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

After photos of mask-less students at a Paulding County high school went viral, state Rep. Beth Moore had an idea.

The Democrat from Peachtree Corners set up an anonymous inbox -- reportmyschool@gmail.com -- for whistleblower tips, photos and videos about unsafe conditions at Georgia schools.

She says she’s been both overwhelmed and “shellshocked” by the response -- hundreds of messages in the last two days. The worst, she says, came from a teacher she verified as working in a north Georgia school district.

“I am planning for 27 students in my tiny classroom,” the unnamed teacher wrote her. “They are not making masks mandatory. My principal is joking to people that this is ‘god’s cleansing plan.’”

Clearly it's not realistic to require masks in schools. Adults can barely wear one for 5 minutes when they go to the grocery.

I think we can do better than this sort of dystopia.

But I think the photos from the school actually did a positive service. It shows we can have schools that are almost normal even in one of the more hard-hit states. If you can have school in Georgia, why not Vermont or Maine?

Yet the same schools send anyone home for violating a dress code lol.

Only detention I ever got in high school was for a dress code violation!

(Also got suspended, but that's a different story...)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No further stimulus is coming from Congress:

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1292871439243268098

Well done guys and girls! Y'all really came together in a great show of bipartisanship and teamwork during America's time of need. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Could there be partial herd immunity in some of the hardest-hit areas by now?  Sure, it's quite possible.  But it's certainly not the ONLY explanation for case decreases.  These factors all interact with each other.  For example, partial herd immunity may reduce R by a small amount, while increased social distancing also does so.  So the combination of both in a particular area might push R below 1, when neither factor by itself would do so.

PENN's DOID is apparently collaborating with the sociology and psychology departments to take a look at how people responded behaviorally (or have been responding, I should say) to the pandemic. 

Should yield some interesting results!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

I'm particularly pleased with Germany's efforts.  They pretty consistently kept their death rate to a minimum, yet IIRC they still require masks on public transportation and in areas where large groups of people are prone to be in contact.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

During the Ebola pandemic, Andrew Cuomo and Chris Christie enacted quarantines that applied only to people who had been exposed to Ebola patients. This meant very few people were even quarantined. Yet a lot of people back then said this was much too strict. Dr. Fauci even said this was much too strict and urged only monitoring, not a quarantine. When Florida implemented monitoring, some people even said that was too strict.

So why do we now have these much stricter measures that have lasted 5 whole months, and nobody dares to publicly oppose them?

People are just being cautious after the big spike in southern states. I think it is a slight overreaction, because most hospitals were not overwhelmed, but there is some cause for concern.

I'm personally pretty optimistic with my coronavirus predictions, but in my personal life, I'm playing it very safe because I'm privileged enough to do so.

DTC total sidebar, but I could've sworn you were a blue av for the longest time

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

During the Ebola pandemic, Andrew Cuomo and Chris Christie enacted quarantines that applied only to people who had been exposed to Ebola patients. This meant very few people were even quarantined. Yet a lot of people back then said this was much too strict. Dr. Fauci even said this was much too strict and urged only monitoring, not a quarantine. When Florida implemented monitoring, some people even said that was too strict.

So why do we now have these much stricter measures that have lasted 5 whole months, and nobody dares to publicly oppose them?

People are just being cautious after the big spike in southern states. I think it is a slight overreaction, because most hospitals were not overwhelmed, but there is some cause for concern.

I'm personally pretty optimistic with my coronavirus predictions, but in my personal life, I'm playing it very safe because I'm privileged enough to do so.

DTC total sidebar, but I could've sworn you were a blue av for the longest time

He was.

Case dismissed! Well done, Weasel!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Unemployment claims ticked back up over the one-million mark:

https://mobile.twitter.com/USDOL/status/1296424389370679298

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What if there is no vaccine? That remains a possibility, although I think it is an unlikely one at this point. The restrictions we are seeing now cannot continue indefinitely.

I think some of our public officials actually would continue them indefinitely - forever if they could. Even if covid is eradicated, I think they'd try to continue some of them. Just because they can.

Public and medical officials aren't your monolithic enemy, Bandit.  We're getting weary of the public restrictions, too, but understand why they're in place. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't want to sound like an idiot but if you got the vaccine, would you still be able to carry the virus to others?

Depends on the virus and depends on how many people have been vaccinated. 

Yes, you can be carrier of a virus even after being vaccinated, but the aim is that enough people will be vaccinated in turn so that there are fewer avenues for the virus to spread.

And Forum Lurker, you know I love you, but keep me out of this, please. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just posted elsewhere, but:  yesterday, Dr. Fauci denounced a clip of him that was used in a recent Trump campaign ad. 

A clip of Fauci appears saying "I can't imagine that anybody could be doing more", seemingly lauding Trump for his COVID-19 response.   But Fauci rejected the messaging, stating that the clip was used without his permission and out-of-context.  Instead, he says, he was referring to federal health workers. 

"In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate. The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials," Fauci said in a statement provided exclusively to CNN when asked if he agreed to be featured in the ad.

The Trump campaign released the new ad last week after the President was discharged from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center following treatment for Covid-19. The 30-second ad, which is airing in Michigan, touts Trump's personal experience with the virus and uses a quote from Fauci in an attempt to make it appear as if he is praising Trump's response.

"President Trump is recovering from the coronavirus, and so is America," the ad's narrator says. "Together we rose to meet the challenge, protecting our seniors, getting them life-saving drugs in record time, sparing no expense."

The ad then flashes to an interview with Fauci in which he says, "I can't imagine that anybody could be doing more."

Source:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/fauci-trump-campaign-ad-out-of-context/index.html

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Philadelphia just basically imposed a zero-tolerance measure: no indoor gatherings of ANY size, all schools and colleges online (no conditionals), no indoor dining or bars of any kind, retail stores must operate five people max per every 1000 square feet, etc. etc.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just got stage two of vaccination (yes, I already had COVID, but I was still required to get the vaccine anyway in case of a carrier situation; nevertheless, I was very low on the priority list for healthcare workers.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

People still believe in that quack? Wow.

DTT, you're back! I don't think I've seen you around since the election. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

You can't trick me and jimmie. We both know what Fauci is about to do.

Mmm talk like that is gonna get you #cancelled, Russian Bear

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just based on chats I've had with folks at UPENN's resident center for COVID research (and other infectious diseases, blah blah), the response to Omicron should lie somewhere in the middle -- there's no need to hit the panic button, but it should still serve as a reminder that COVID isn't "over".  Don't fear-monger, but be responsible. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just based on chats I've had with folks at UPENN's resident center for COVID research (and other infectious diseases, blah blah), the response to Omicron should lie somewhere in the middle -- there's no need to hit the panic button, but it should still serve as a reminder that COVID isn't "over".  Don't fear-monger, but be responsible.  

Thanks for the insight, it's appreciate in a thread like this. Anything else that the people at the COVID research center said about the variant that's useful to know?

Quite a bit of medical jargon that I'm too lazy to repeat here, but it all boiled down to "this is a serious matter, but there's a fine line between justifiable concern and sensational panic."

I have a friend of mine fighting off a breakthrough case right now.  She went to a party where she was exposed to a girl who (a) was experiencing symptoms and (b) knew that she could potentially be positive, but this girl attended the party anyway because she was "tired of talking about COVID".  

Now most folks aren't this brazen or inconsiderate, but just be smart and be responsible -- vaccinated or not. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Quite a bit of medical jargon that I'm too lazy to repeat here, but it all boiled down to "this is a serious matter, but there's a fine line between justifiable concern and sensational panic."

I have a friend of mine fighting off a breakthrough case right now.  She went to a party where she was exposed to a girl who (a) was experiencing symptoms and (b) knew that she could potentially be positive, but this girl attended the party anyway because she was "tired of talking about COVID".  

Now most folks aren't this brazen or inconsiderate, but just be smart and be responsible -- vaccinated or not.

I've been reading a lot of conflicting reports. Some are saying that South Africa is faring better than expected. However, others studies are saying there's no evidence Omicron is any less severe than previous variants. I think what we do know for sure is that Omicron is far more infectious than previous variants. It seems to me that even if we're fortunate in having a less virulent variant (which  is too early to say one way or the other), the biggest problems are the substantial increase in infectiousness and serious decrease in effectiveness of the vaccine prior to being boosted. For example, if the new variant were somehow 25% less severe than the previous, it wouldn't do us much good if the new variant was even just twice as infectious. Those are random numbers, but the fact we know is that infectiousness is significantly higher. I'd say the primary worry, apart from everything else we've been worrying about, is that the hospitals will be completely overrun. That's been the scariest thing in my view since the start of the pandemic. Early on, the thought of not nearly enough ventilators left me with dread. A completely overrun healthcare system affects everyone.

I got my booster just before Thanksgiving, almost seven months after my second dose (I've stuck with Pfizer all the way). What I've been reading is that, for those of us with the mRNA vaccines, effectiveness of the vaccine after the second dose goes down rapidly. It seems to me like the CDC is either behind or inept. If the second dose loses most of its effectiveness after 4-5 months, we're in big trouble if the waiting period is 6 months for boosting after the second dose. On the other hand, boosters haven't been available for that long overall. We have no idea how long boosted immunity lasts against Omicron. So far, they're holding up well and that is very good news, but we don't know what it looks like six months from now.

Mind you, these conversations took place a couple of weeks ago and this is certainly not to say that I am speaking for or acting as a representative of the research center. 

Nevertheless, the fact that Omicron appears to be easily spread is worthy of consideration (regarding hospital infrastructure).  Cases that present at hospitals don't even need to be severe -- they still have the potential to consume valuable time, resources, and manpower. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So decided to get tested this morning after I started having symptoms that were somewhat similar to my early experience with COVID in Spring of 2020.

Test came back positive -- despite being fully vaccinated + boosted and having already danced with COVID-19.  

It's definitely not as bad as the first round thus far, though it's still rather uncomfortable.  Have a slightly elevated temperature, a deep dry cough, and just feel like I don't have any energy.  But certainly not getting that "chest full of broken glass" sensation that was just *so* enjoyable during the first time.

Fortunately, my schedule permits me to become a shut-in for the next week or so.  And I have a whole lot of DVD-watching to do. 

Anyway, enough attention-whoring: please take care of yourselves out there, folks!