2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 173658 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« on: September 25, 2020, 05:39:14 AM »


This shows me that white college educated voters are substantially activated.

Beep boop boop, college-educated voters ...activated.  

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 09:46:55 AM »


A lot of people are unaware that their voting history is basically publicly accessible information because of the phrase "secret ballot," but that only protects who you actually voted for, not whether or not you voted.

In Texas in particular, there's no partisan registration, but who needs it if someone can just look up your history and see you vote in the Democratic Primary every cycle?

I get polled all the time (about once a month during election years) and I think a lot of that comes down to my voting history. Stuff like voting in a Dallas mayoral race with 10% turnout probably puts me in a "Super-high-turnout-chance" list somewhere.

There are states such as Florida, New York, and New Jersey where someone can not only look up your name and DOB, but also your address and for which party you're registered -- and all it takes is having your first OR last name (that's not an exhaustive list -- North Carolina is on there, as well).  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 11:09:34 AM »




I'm guessing that exceeds expectations?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 01:17:28 PM »

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

Also bear in mind that these are locked-In votes (for either party).  A major scandal for either candidate, even in the week before the election, can't change them. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 01:21:20 PM »



Any Nevada experts that can weigh in?

Paging YE?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2020, 03:35:13 AM »

While the lines and early "returns" don't necessarily tell us much about the actual Election Night outcomes, they at least indicate an electorate that is eager to lock in their votes now.  To me, this suggests that there are far fewer undecideds in this race. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2020, 11:42:02 AM »

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

Everything's bigger in Texas, duh.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 10:48:50 AM »

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

It's for Florida, I believe.  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 03:34:58 PM »



Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 03:37:44 PM »



Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!

Are you voting for Castñeda for RRC?

Nope.  I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 04:00:07 PM »

I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running.  

You voted for Cornyn over Hegar?  boooo

thanks for the Kulkarni vote though

Did it just for you, MacArthur Tongue

I'm still a Republican at my core who wants a Republican Senate (House would be nice, too, bit that's not happening).   I will say that I have absolutely nothing against Hegar, though.  She's a super badass lady.  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 05:37:29 AM »

I believe that with VbM, Democrats are still up 10K in Washoe, so calm down everyone.

Its Panic at the Washoe time.


If the jittery mindset is this bad now, the next two weeks will be a heck of a ride.

It's gonna reach a fever pitch after October 28.

I plan on avoiding the Presidential Poll board around that time. And at the rate discussion has been going tonight, perhaps this thread as well

Noooo Monstro! That's when the fun truly gets started!
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,430
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 04:52:06 PM »

Wow, Dems are killing it in AZ!  

Already 40.4% Dem turnout in Maricopa (Rs at 29.5%)
and 49.4% Dem TO in Pima (Rs at 32.9%)

Dems up statewide 125,940

See Sam Almy twitter (I'm a newbie and can't link)



I gotchu, fam.  The six-hour-old Maricopa County tweet has already been linked, but here's the recent one from Pima:

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