Did Susan Collins just announced her retirement?

[GreatTailedGrackle]

I have notice a lot of people here and on other threads asking why Collins' vote on Kavanaugh would matter so much two years out when people rarely pay attention to how Senators voted on SCOTUS nominees.  I think that there are a several reasons it might.

1. It goes against her personal brand that she would confirm Kavanaugh.  She presents herself as a moderate Republican who seeks consensus and promotes civility.  Kavanaugh and the process which confirmed him runs against all of that.
2. It killed her support with pro-choice groups who previously supported her, and I would not be surprised if it killed her support with other interest groups who once supported her as well.  Any group that supported her for a long time and now opposes her both means more ads and more damage to her brand.
3. There is a very good case to be made that Collins was the deciding vote.  There has never been a SCOTUS justice confirmed this narrowly in recent history (if at all).  And Manchin's announcement came right after hers, which is a bad look for her.
4. It draws attention to other issues where she was the deciding vote when Mitch McConnell needed her.  It certainly did for me.

That last point in particular I think is key, but also a good argument for why this isn't the thing that did her in.  She has seen a sharp decline in her popularity recently, as McConnell has relied on her as the decisive vote in much of his agenda.  "Susan Collins is always there when Mitch McConnell really needs her" seems like a potentially strong line of attack.  I expect the Kavanaugh thing to be played up if he's involved in a really controversial case, but even then, if she goes down, I don't think Kavanaugh will be the main factor that sinks her.

This may seem weird for me to say given that Kavanaugh finally convinced me to vote like a partisan Democrat in federal elections until something significant changes.  But the Kavanaugh hearings were so effective because shattered my belief that Congressional Republicans are either willing or able to restrain Trump when the moment requires it, as well as my belief that any significant numbers of Congressional Republicans are conservative in a sense that Burke or Buckley would recognize.  (I have some beliefs about what they are, but am still trying to figure out a way to describe it that both fully encompasses it and does not sound horribly insulting.)  So if not this, it seems very likely that Congressional Republicans would have found some other horrifying way to convince me that they have nearly all gone all in on Trump.