2024 Republicans have outperformed Trump by 5.8% on average in special elections, similar to 2021 (user search)
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  2024 Republicans have outperformed Trump by 5.8% on average in special elections, similar to 2021 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 Republicans have outperformed Trump by 5.8% on average in special elections, similar to 2021  (Read 721 times)
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,195
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« on: February 16, 2024, 11:32:45 AM »

To be fair adding those Georgia legislative races to the average can skew the average to be a little more favorable to Republicans than it should be. Every other race was a general election, not a jungle primary. If anything those were ideological primaries where the action was amongst the Republicans and the Democrats were not a factor.

Back of the enveloppe maths shows these 2 specials account for almost the entire GOP advantage. Without them it's R+1.

This thread is a good example of making data say what you want it to say
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