MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

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If I had to say I think Slotkin is the front runner, for no reason other then she’s the first name that comes to mind.

Scholten would also be a very good pick

Lisa McClain is likely the most likely to win a Republican primary should she run

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If I had to say I think Slotkin is the front runner, for no reason other then she’s the first name that comes to mind.

Scholten would also be a very good pick

Lisa McClain is likely the most likely to win a Republican primary should she run

Not Bill Huizenga?

Huizenga is a mainstream, establishment conservative.

The primary voters will batter and fry him. They demand insanity like McClain can offer

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I don't see why Lisa McClain is expected to be a good candidate,  she's only run in a completely safe district in the Thumb area for two whole elections ever.   There's not much to distinguish her from any other candidate and most voters outside of the Thumb probably know nothing about her.

At least John James is kinda-sorta known statewide to some degree, or in the Detroit metro if nothing else.

I don’t think Lisa McClain will be a good candidate, she’s probably the worst of the house members, but what makes her a terrible general election candidate - dabble in election denial, far right culture wars and embracing conspiracies - are all things that will make her an excellent primary candidate

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I'd like to see Gilchrist go for Senate and Benson for governor. Slotkin is much better than Stevens but I see her as a future majority whip or leader.

If Ray Luján was in the House rn he’d definitely be in the top three. Sometimes people get tired of waiting for a promotion

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Is there any sense of which of the major (potential) candidates are more progressive? I know Slotkin is more moderate and I’ve heard bad things about Stevens, but what about the various state officials?

The most progressive and best shot recruit would probably Dana Nessel, but she doesn’t seem interested

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Is there any sense of which of the major (potential) candidates are more progressive? I know Slotkin is more moderate and I’ve heard bad things about Stevens, but what about the various state officials?

The most progressive and best shot recruit would probably Dana Nessel, but she doesn’t seem interested

I’m pretty sure she’s made it explicit that she’s not running.

Yea, after her maybe Brenda Lawrence or maybe Stephanie Chang/Laurie Pohutsky? The progressive bench is pretty thin

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Is there any sense of which of the major (potential) candidates are more progressive? I know Slotkin is more moderate and I’ve heard bad things about Stevens, but what about the various state officials?

The most progressive and best shot recruit would probably Dana Nessel, but she doesn’t seem interested

I’m pretty sure she’s made it explicit that she’s not running.

Yea, after her maybe Brenda Lawrence or maybe Stephanie Chang/Laurie Pohutsky? The progressive bench is pretty thin

Whatever happened to Abdul el-Sayed? Is he still relevant?

Sorta? But he wouldn’t be a great candidate, he mostly has been focusing on the national scene like working as a contributor on CNN

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Stevens is a NO

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1620174468583931908

So should we just go ahead and assume Slotkin will be the nominee?

Pete Buttigieg, Mike Duggan, Abdul El-Sayed, Dan Kildee, Andy Levin, Dana Nessel, Shri Thanader, Gretchen Whitmire and now Haley Steven’s have all passed on it. It’s that’s not a cleared field idk what is.

The only two people who have not ruled themselves out that could potentially give Stolkin a race are Garlin Gilchrist and Brenda Lawrence. Maybe Jocelyn Benson.

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Yeah I think this is good for Michigan Democrats, it seems like Slotkin will clear the field. Slotkin will likely run for Senate, and Stevens for re-election. And hopefully Andy Levin runs against John James in MI-10 (he should’ve done it last year, but I think he’d have a decent shot in 2024).

The downside of Slotkin running for Senate is obviously that her seat will be vulnerable now. Any thoughts on who may run on the Democratic (and Republican) side in MI-07?

It’s tricky cause the entire balance of entire from the state to congress is very narrow. The Michigan Senate is a dem majority by 1.

Sarah Anthony is 40 and has an impressive political resume, she represents Lansing in the senate.

Andy Schor is 47 and Mayor of Lansing, another candidate with an impressive resume.

There’s probably many other highly qualified candidates without public office but those two are, as far as elected officials go, probably the biggest names for the seat

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Any talk of Peter Meijer potentially running for this?

I believe Meijer has expressed interest in returning to the House or running for this Senate seat, but he'd be nonviable. If he can't win the primary in his very normie-GOP district, then I doubt he'd be successful in a statewide primary. I'd like to see him try though.

He came very close in his House primary and there have been some signs that the GOP electorate has somewhat cooled on Trump since (although the degree is very much disputed) I don't think Mejer would be DOA in either a House or Senate primary. 

What signs are you refering to? I know trumps election polling dipped after the election but they seem to have rebounded somewhat

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Based on vibes and my gut I feel Huizenga would be republicans best chance to flip this seat as he can potentially appeal to suburbanites and the nutjobs (republicans)

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State Board of Ed member Nikki Snyder is running for senate.

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1626193952021032960?s=20

She’s hardly a top-tier candidate and I don’t expect her to be the nominee.

The same thing was said about Tudor Dixon

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State Board of Ed member Nikki Snyder is running for senate.

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1626193952021032960?s=20

She’s hardly a top-tier candidate and I don’t expect her to be the nominee.

The same thing was said about Tudor Dixon

Only after they banned everyone else from running, they won't be able to do the same trick twice.

They didn’t “ban” them, all the other candidates failed to meet the ballot requirements, the bare minimum is collecting signatures and they failed to do that.

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I'm calling it right now. The GOP will select the worst possible candidate they can, they'll lose by 5 or more points, whine about losing and not get the message on what type of candidates to run.

The GOP hasn’t lost any election in 2016, everytime their candidates loose it’s cause democrats stole the election through fraud, so why would they change if they’re winning?

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Peter Meijer could not win a stand wide primary unless he has some dramatic change

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The bench to replace Slotkin for Democrats is large
-Sam Singh
-Sarah Anthony
-Kara Hope
-Curtis Hertzler
-Andy Schor
-Angela Witwer
-Virg Bernero
-Rosemarie Aquilina (the Larry Nassar judge)

For Republicans I imagine it’s likely Barrett again.

If I had to pick someone I think will replace Slotkin, it’s be Anthony. It’s a very weird look for Michigan Democrats to have sent no black members to congress while republicans have.

Even ignoring that, she’s very involved in Lansing and has served on various boards from charities to economic growth groups. Her only weakness is she has never faced a competitor election, but she still is a very solid candidate.

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Honestly knowing the GOP’s luck the nominee is going to be John Gibbs

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People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

I once opened up a dictionary to the word "doomer", and it had your avatar on there for some reason. Can't imagine why....

But the Supreme Court will ban the dictionary after Trump winning a third term in 2028 allows the 9-0 conservative court to murder every single minority and queer person!

This is honestly as likely to happen as Slotkin loosing

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Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

Why do you say that? Sinema is a unique breed in that she changes her ideaology to match what she thinks will get her elected, going from Progressive congresswoman to whatever she is now

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As much as I wish it were Benson and not Slotkin, this race is definitely Dem advantage. Slotkin's a monster fundraiser and Tuttle does not have broad appeal. The GOP's best shot is Peters' seat in a Biden midterm, and only with a better candidate than Dixon.

So lean, if not likely, democratic

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Harper could cause trouble for Slotkin in Detroit among people who think the state is deserving a black senator, or just want a senator from their corner of the state

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Probably just me, but I think Slotkin should consider dropping out and running for reelection instead.

If Harper runs a progressive enough campaign, she will lose the primary, as black voters+progressives is enough to win the primary.

Not a chance.  He’ll be lucky to crack 10% in the primary.

A point I've made before is there's this bizarre mindset that Democrats are just as obsessed with celebrity candidates as Republicans are when with the obvious exception of Al Franken, it's very difficult to come up with any examples of them nominating one. If we include professional athletes you could count Colin Allred, but he was nominated largely on his legal work and work with the Obama Administration instead of his sports career. After that the only example I can think of is John Hall who played in some B-tier yacht rock band that was mildly popular in the 70s and served two terms as very generic D backbencher in the House from 2007-2011.

I suspect this is because celebrities and entertainers are much more likely to be liberals/democrats, and are often vocal about politics and causes, but don't run for office, and a celebrity speaking out in support of a liberal cause is so common that people generally just ignore it (aside from the usual suspects like Tucker Carlson or Jesse Waters). Meanwhile because it's more rare for celebrities to be republicans/conservatives, they get more attention and support from their side, and thus encouragement to run for office.

I don’t think you’re wrong, but I think it has more to do with democrats wanted political experience more then republicans. For example 9 republican senators have no prior elected office with four having no kind of politcal or government experience. Only five democrats have no elected experience and of those only 1 has no political or government experience, maybe two depending on how you count Kelly. Even Franken was deeply connected in politics before his senate career.

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Slotkin update: this doesn't look good on her end

https://twitter.com/craigcaplan/status/1679703190932013056?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

While I still don’t fully buy that "Sinema 2.0" garbage, this ain’t exactly making her appealing

The LGBTQ issues are the exact ones that I would not want to be seen as equivocating on. Lucky for her, she has very divided primary opposition. But yeah this was an unforced stupid mistake

I’m gay and I don’t hate this vote. It doesn’t single out gay people, but it does affect us. It also affects  the trumpnuts flying the f#%k Joe Biden flags or the stars and bars

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Slotkin update: this doesn't look good on her end

https://twitter.com/craigcaplan/status/1679703190932013056?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

While I still don’t fully buy that "Sinema 2.0" garbage, this ain’t exactly making her appealing

That tweet is a highly misleading and (I suspect quite deliberately) inaccurate description of the amendment. 

Wdym? Cuz the text is right there and it seems not only fair but close to verbatim lol.

I am also gay, if that wasn’t clear enough, and I don’t like Slotkin’s vote. I’m not a free speech absolutist by any stretch, but you don’t wanna brand yourself the thought crime police. Isn’t there a lot more the military should be doing rn than policing its members self expression? Also, I am not a fan of comparing anything to the confederate flag, which is uniquely offensive because it represents a racist traitorous movement opposed to this country and military. That’s not what the rainbow flag means and it sets a bad precedence to “both sides” this at a time when lgbtq Americans’ patriotism and lives are being assailed. There is a reason slotkin was alone in the party on this vote, and I don’t wanna make excuses for her when she’s to the right of Henry cuellar on an issue.

I see your point, but that’s kind of what I was trying to get at. Yea loosing Pride flags sucks but I see it as a casualty of tackling a larger problem of getting rid of truly abhorrent flags. Granted, I’m no fool so of course this is republicans trying to suppress gay voices in the military. Perhaps a better amendment version would be more specific on what kind of flags are and aren’t allowed.

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Why is everyone in this thread so upset at the idea of people not wanting Slotkin? Like there's absolutely no reason for any progressive to vote for her. She's not owed the nomination just because the DSCC wants her.

There’s not “no reason” for a progressive to not vote for her. The issue is there’s just not much in the way of a progressive of her political level running. There’s just not really any progressive that could seriously challenge her. Maybe Andy Levin?