AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

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She’d have to finish behind a democrat to end up loosing with RCV, so I think she’s safe

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Al Gross considering another run:

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1381650937152991233?s=21

Feel the Gross 2022

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Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

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I really don’t see what the Democrats think they are gaining by not challenging Murkowski.

Oh no, we might have a Senator that always votes against us instead of a Senator that always votes against us when their vote matters!

As a Red state democrat, it’s a game about harm reduction

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I wonder if Al Gross will hop in the race he expressed interest a few months ago.

Last I saw he’s running for house

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https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1569680380411711488?s=21&t=4FYK-B1QpUs...

Four is a weird number for a runoff, I really don’t know why they don’t just to a normal RCV