2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

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California will start drawing maps next week:

https://twitter.com/sarasadhwani/status/1443387890185035776

Let the blood bath begin

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You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.

For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

California is the biggest pain in the butt to draw maps for. Shuffling any sizeable population imbalances around involves passing precincts through a massive chain of other districts.







I present California v2, now with THREE (!!) majority-Asian VAP districts:
10 (50.3% Asian VAP), 15(54.0% VAP), 32(50.7% VAP)

10 (Stanford-Mountain Vale-Cupertino and the Asian parts of Santa Clara and Saratoga)
15 (San Leandro-Fremont-Milpitas and a stretch into the eastern outskirts of San Jose)
and the very *special* 32 (SGV district, sadly the 626 isn't quite big enough for its own district, and bringing it into Monrovia-Duarte or Pasadena really does a number on the Asian population, it's a lot closer to 40% if you leave out the stretch into Walnut-Rowland Heights).

17 is plurality-Asian at 32.4% VAP, and 14 and 8 are fairly close to being plurality-Asian but I kind of hollowed them out a bit to hit 50% in 10 and 15.

Tried to cut out some (a few, can't get too impartial) county splits and neaten up the edges a bit on most districts. Some are essentially unchanged, like the CA-47 chocobo, and the CA-22 chicken.

The LA and SF metros got substantially rearranged to shift to more of a VRA focus, I tried my best to try and draw a Black-plurality district in LA but failed, I really don't think it's possible any more, short of taking some fairly extreme liberties with the district.

Oh, and I basically copied Sabrina Cervantes' district for CA-46 because she is iconic and should get it.
 

2016-2020 Composites:



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-23, 51.05% D    42.42% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 51.99% D    48.01% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 47D-5R

Closest seat: CA-41, 49.82% D    50.18% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 52.33% D    45.49% R

Gentletheys, why cede four seats to republicans when we can cede three?

This map has more asian majority seats (four) then Republican Majority seats


https://davesredistricting.org/join/73563fbf-b250-4fc9-b517-0c749e01e956

This map does have more seats in the "Likely" category but even in the abosolute worse case scenario where all of them flip it is still only 7 that would be one less then current. And that's only if the San Jose, Sacremento, and LA suburbs/exurbs trend right when all signs point to otherwise. It does all this while also being (somewhat) compact.

The closest is the OC Coastal which went from R+5 in 2016 to R+1 (alost EVEN) in 2020. In 2020 it voted for Biden 51.4/46.6.

South LA County isn't filled in (except for me seeing is it's possible for a plurality black seat) simply because it is so democratic and I'm just trying to show an extreme Demmander

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[-snip- for conciseness]

[snipy]

lmao impressive. I would recommend filling out the LA districts to solidify things because geography tends to get a little weird while trying to balance populations across the LA metro. I will say that I'll probably be redoing my map to get something more realistic around 40% for Asian VAP pops because 50% is honestly not the most useful and probably serves more as a pack than anything.

A few comments on areas of interest:

- I tried to keep the LA County border a lot neater at the top, which does make the Central Valley tougher because you can't pull from LA.

- Riverside-SB seems kind of messy, especially with CD-4. tbh CD-4 is really kinda contrived and brings together a lot of fairly disparate COIs, would not recommend.

- Not sold on 34 as a pack, it should be centered on Temecula-Murrieta-Menifee. Feels like the Calimesa and SD arms are kind of contrived.

- 41 should drop the Rolling Hills bit, that's much more suited to an LA coastal-Westside district.

Yea no the map is not the best and I genuinely ignored everything besides as many asian minority as possible and as many democrats as possible. In addition to the four majority asian seats there is an additional three that are plurality asian. This is where a lot of the messyness in northeast LA county comes from in drawing thosse and the consequences of that,

CD 4 exists in that wau solely because I was grouping Asian Americans together, while drawing it I was even thinking "this is a bad disitrct and I have no idea if these "asian" communities are conencted culturally"

San Bernadino and Rierside issue and the Calimesa are connecting becuase Calimesa is actually where I started drawing the seat funnily enough. I found it's really easy to banish the republicans from San Diego county centered seat, but that does fore one just to the north. If I gave it another pass or two it might be cleaner. If Calimesa isn’t drawn into a sink it has too many people and makes it’s a swing

I went pack and forth on whether 41 should take more of Long beach or more coast so yea you're right.

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hang on besties i might be able to get them down to two with out like weird san fran tenticles

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hang on besties i might be able to get them down to two with out like weird san fran tenticles

so um yea with minimal snakage you can get a 50-2 map....

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So... here's the two republican map



The North is exaxtly the same as my previous post. This is really closer to a 49-2-1, but hey that's better.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ac39ba52-77a8-4c90-b5b6-0a93267ea798

If I gave it another pass I could probably make it neater/safer

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https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448495269591531522

Looks like McClintock was axed, assuming we still get the expected lost seat from LA, this means we'll need a new seat somewhere.

Hate it. Republicans shouldn’t be allowed access to the pacific coast for A e s t h e t i c s

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It’s some how poetic that every major democratic state has a Republican floor of three seats

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Mike Garcia is pissed.

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1459937074493095941?s=20

I abhor identity politics (except when it benefits my argument)

What makes this especially stupid about this line of reasoning is that nesting the CA-25 successor inside LA County means he's getting a seat that's substantially more Hispanic than now.

Obviously the only minority he cares about is republicans

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These names sounds like you’re trying to summon an eldritch abomination

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The commission seems weirdly hellbent on making Steele's district more Democratic and Porter's more Republican. I guess I have to credit them for not giving a sh*t about incumbent protection, like partisan mapmakers always do even when both sides come together. I do have to wonder if there's a reason for it, though.

Balance? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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blegh anything more than 3 republicans is too much

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Looking at the racial composition of the seats, Garamendi, Harder, Swalwell and a few others are now in a much more liberal, ethnic seats. Prime targets for a primary challenge

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This is interesting. They kept LGBT communities united in districts wherever possible.

https://www.eqca.org/big-wins-lgbtq-redistricting/

We stan

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This is interesting. They kept LGBT communities united in districts wherever possible.

https://www.eqca.org/big-wins-lgbtq-redistricting/

If LGBT qualifies as a COI, you can create a COI for literally any reason, thereby negating the practical power of the term.

Why do you say that? LGBT exists as a category in discrimination / civil rights law and we have had unique political needs.

EQCA clearly just put out a dem gerrymander which was their only goal.

Pfft, this isn’t that strong of a gerrymander. You can easily draw 1-3 republican seats without any really absurd tentacles