North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

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What will be really interesting is that a Sandhills district would be majorly influenced by the Lumbee tribes. Making it the only district this side of the Mississippi, and one of maybe three districts with a sizable indigenous population. Not to mention the black population and growing Hispanic community. It will be a new minority majority seat, which is really great to see as after 2010 there has been no minority representation for the border region in either state.

This is in general a huge win for minority communities, and people who support representative democracy in general. It’d be amazing to see a Lumbee get elected to congress. I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles Graham wins such a district, even in 2022, as the Lumbee would be the king makers of it.

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It’s a good enough map, I wish the 14th took in Richmond and Scotland instead of Harnell and Brunswick

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These competitivemanders are lit

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Honestly none of these are ones that I want. The Fayetteville district in the NCLCV is almost exactly how I would have it, but it makes the 2nd from being more rural to a weird suburban collar that combines the most democratic parts of the area with the most republican. The S738 option has a good compact east Charlotte suburbs, but keeps the Johnston-New Brunswick snake. While S745 has a weird  Cumberland-New Brunswick seat, puts Cary and Winston-Salem with blood red rurals, but has a very good north rural black seat.

All in all I’m just confused

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https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1495193796698644486?cxt=HHwWjIC5qcK1_78pAAAA

Wow district 6 is actually a Obama -Trump-Trump district.

I know they’re trying to maximize republican seats under a lot of restrictions, but this could end up a dummymander with 14, 6, 13, 7, and even 8, 5, or 11 flipping with the way they’re trending. Imagine republicans ending up with 3 seats lol

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https://davesredistricting.org/join/e1a836cc-2791-43b6-9f7e-5006b4a51f34
Thoughts on this map?

North Carolina is awkward to draw, especially in the Fayetteville/Wilmington/Goldsboro triangle. I like the competitive seat in the area though

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NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It would be better for the First to scoop in Goldsboro and Kinston (while avoiding most of their white environs) than to reach into whiter parts of the Albemarle as it does here.

I was considering that, but tbh it's not worth it for how little it increases the black population. Either that would mean 3 would have to have a very little arm into Johnson County or there would just have to be a weird config between 3 and 7 which would've be very coherent.

NC is a bit unfortunate in the way black voters are distributed. A true 50% black district is basically impossible to draw within any sort of reason, despite the state having 14 CDs and an over 20% black population.

Next decade, especially if NC doesn't gain  district, it's very possible District 1 will have depopulated enough to the point where it becomes a district where whites dominate the election outcomes. On the flip side though, it will probably be possible to make 12 or it's equivalent very close to 50% BVAP and it's obviously a safe D district in a GE.

Another under utilized minority district is actually in the 6th. Greensboro/Winston Salem have enough minority populations to make it a majority minority seat

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Since were throwing our maps around here's a rough idea of my ideal map for NC


https://davesredistricting.org/join/a5c39e3c-30de-414d-8121-1d942f631697

It creates three highly competitive districts (two R+2 and one R+1), as well as four majority minority seats.

The 6th, 1st, 10th, and 12th are all majority minority, with the largest minority in all being black, and the 10th and 12th having large native and hispanic populations (respectively). It's not the prettiest map, but for keeping COI's together as well as being extremely perportional and having great minority representativion I think it does well.

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I gotta say, some of these maps have kind of an odd approach to Charlotte. If you're trying to draw for community of interest, imo you really should draw a district that's very decisively central Charlotte and then two clearly suburban districts. The obvious place to remove people from Mecklenburg is the Northern portion (which is more similar to the wealthy communities in southern Iredell and Eastern Lincoln/Catawba), Mint Hill/Matthews, and South Charlotte, in that order.  Unlike the eastern part of the state, it's possible to draw greater Charlotte in a pretty good way because population lays out well for it.

Putting places like Concord in with downtown Charlotte, or drawing an odd suburban donut, doesn't make sense. Just because the current map does it doesn't mean it's ok!

IMO this is my preferred configuration of metro Charlotte--not in the specific lines, but the general plan of one central district (12), one eastern suburban district with southern Meck burbs (9) and one western district with Gastonia and the rich communities along Lake Norman (10). But if you're squeamish about splitting Mecklenburg three times you can do something decent which is similarly structured.

The issue is trying to draw that in with other districts. The 10th (Fayetteville/Lumberton) really should be made competitive and majority minority. Without drawing into Union this becomes exceeding difficult. I’d rather draw one of the Charlotte seats suboptimally to allow for this

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The issue is trying to draw that in with other districts. The 10th (Fayetteville/Lumberton) really should be made competitive and majority minority. Without drawing into Union this becomes exceeding difficult. I’d rather draw one of the Charlotte seats suboptimally to allow for this

What about something like this?

What are the demographics/partisanships of the greensboro and fayetteville districts?

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Updated again; pretty minor changes but tried to clean up a bit.

Does anyone else hate how large the precincts are in Harnett and Johnston Counties? Anyone know why that is?

If you hate large precincts try DeKalb county alabama

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Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

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Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

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Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

I meant in seat count. Thanks for the reply either way, of course.

Ah do you mean your map or in general.

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Worst case from your map would be around 3-4 Republican seats flipping in a 2018 style wave so 6-8. I have a feeling the southern wake strip would vote more democratic then not so it’ll function closer to a 3-11, with one or two seats being continuously competitive.

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Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.

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Does anyone know when they are going to start the redraw?

If I had to guess they’re gonna wait as long as possible with the court cases in every other southern state