Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Whites (63%): Clinton 59, Obama 36, Other 4
Blacks (33%) Clinton 6, Obama 91, Other 2

[Lief 🗽]

I love the hype on MSNBC and CNN about how North Carolina is apparently so much bigger than Indiana. Some commentator said that NC is basically "double the size" of Indiana.

Electoral votes:

Indiana - 11
North Carolina - 15

Better comparison is CDs; 13-9 is considerably larger (although not double).

...

The difference is still four.

And yet, 8 is twice 4 and 104 is not twice 100.

North Carolina is considerably larger than Indiana, and has many more Democrats.

[Lief 🗽]

Now at 36%, Obama leading by 20.  It will possibly be closer than expected.

Many people were saying that Obama would struggle to break double digits. He's going to win by something like 15 points.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama about 12% ahead

57-41 = 16.

16 != 12.

What?

[Lief 🗽]

Preliminary Delegate Numbers:

Statewide: 22O, 16C
CD1: O4, C2
CD2: O3, C3
CD3: O2, C2 (may creep up to O1, C3)
CD4: O7, C2
CD5: O2, C3
CD6: O2, C3
CD7: O3, C3
CD8: O2, C3 (may change to O3, C2)
CD9: Too early to call, 6 delegates
CD10: O2, C3
CD11: O3, C3  (Schuler will endorse the winner of CD11, who looks to be Clinton)
CD12: Too early, 7 delegates
CD13: O4, C3

So, total: 55-57O, 45-47C, with 13 too early to call.