Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards 34%
Obama 26%
Clinton 25%
Biden 8%
Richardson 4%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%

[Lief 🗽]

Er... Edwards has money and organization in many more states than Iowa. The whole "Edwards doesn't have any organization or money outside of Iowa" smear is a talking point from the Obama campaign.

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards is holding 4 town halls in NH tomorrow. He swung through the state two weeks ago and a week ago as well. He was in South Carolina earlier this month. He's made more visits to Nevada than any other candidate. The idea that he's been living in Iowa every day for the last year is ridiculous and false.

Edwards has as much, if not more (due to Union endorsements in big states, influential states), organization as John Kerry did in 2004, and he's doing better in the polls that John Kerry was the day before Iowa in 2004. Money, at this point, doesn't mean anything. Howard Dean had 3x as much money as Kerry did in 2004. Kerry had to mortgage his home, he was so broke. So clearly, momentum means more than money.

[Lief 🗽]

The LA Times sucks almost as bad as ARG.

True and they picked an awful time to poll over but I am still getting pretty damn concerned. Fcking Edwards is going to end up giving us President Clinton for at least four years!

Without Edwards, Clinton would be crushing Obama. Clinton and Edwards are fighting for the same voter demographics.

[Lief 🗽]

The polls in 2004 were also closer than the final result.

[Lief 🗽]

Final Prediction:

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 26%
Biden 6%
Dodd 4%
Richardson 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%

If turnout shows 160,000 or more, Obama probably takes it. If not, then it's either Clinton or Edwards.

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards has gone nuclear, using rhetoric that would make Norman Thomas blush.

LOL, I wish.