2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

SLF has dumped a lot of money into Alaska on a per capita basis to defend Murkowski. It's certainly an interesting choice. Murkowski is allied with McConnell, but she is a thorn in his side when it comes to legislating. Maybe Tshibaka would be even more troublesome, but spending so much money on an R vs. R race is intriguing.

I think McConnell would choose having a caucus of 49 Murkowskis over 49 Tshibakas without a second thought.

[Lief 🗽]

Increasingly looking like a 2014 redux, just with the election breaking to the GOP even later this time.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

[Lief 🗽]

Ally Mutnick is a “reporter” for Politico… aka a GOP mouthpiece and partisan hack. Of course she’s going to put a Republican spin on this stuff.

[Lief 🗽]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

Why do you only care about unrealistic party ID samples when the share of *Democrats* is unreasonably large?

[Lief 🗽]

I seriously doubt Schumer knows very much more than we do at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

Final Selzer coming tomorrow at 5:30 Central

Inb4 many Atlas posters either use this poll to change their rating, or use it to justify their existing rating. Calling it now.

As they should, Selzer is the gold standard. It correctly identified the late GOP surges in 2016 and 2020.

[Lief 🗽]

Seltzer’s GB numbers look good, Democrats would absolutely take that. Would suggest a D+0 year nationally (maybe R+1 if you assume Midwest will trend left this year because of Dobbs/Dem weakness with non whites).

[Lief 🗽]

Three traditional high quality polls (Selzer, NBC, ABC/WaPo) showing a tied race in the past 24 hours. Very interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.