European Elections 2009 (France)

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Sorry, I absolutely didn't want to insult your cultural identity.

No offense taken.


Anyways, maps!





The UMP has unarguably moved farther east/southeast, though to my surprise, the UMP's gains in the old moderate right departments (Lozere, Aveyron, Val-de-Loire) have been about the same as the UMP's gains in the East. The second map, however, shows that Sarkozy's gains with manual workers in 2007 have been quasi-eliminated, with the biggest drops recorded in those hard hit by the recession (Oise, Moselle, Pas-de-Calais). The UMP seems to have lost a few Le Pen voters who have returned to the FN fold (though these loses seem limited to the North West and Alpes-Maritimes). The second map also shows a relatively strong Baudis effect in the South West, though it's much weaker than the similar effect in 1994. The UMP's top candidates in the South West but also Massif-Centre have proved to be better candidates than Sarkozy and the important improvements on Sarko's performance have come in those departments of Chiraquie/Pompidolie and "Baudisie". Maine-et-Loire's improvement is due to a strong favourite son effect for Bechu, which has been relatively confined to his department though Bechu was undoubtedly a fine candidate for the Ouest.



lol PS. As I mentioned in the Greenie map, the PS have lost that urban middle-class centre-left vote. The Greater Paris region is a perfect example. Also look at the poor showings in the Rhone (Lyon), Bouches-du-Rhone (Marseille), Isere (Grenoble - one of the most Green cities in France), Ille-et-Vilaine (Rennes), Gironde (Bordeaux), Bas-Rhin (Strasbourg), Herault (Montpellier - another quite Green city). Loire-Atlantique is probably due to Saint-Nazaire's industrial region since the well-off areas voted Green. Their strongest departments are more rural or industrialized (lower-class blue collar) than average (where Greenies don't poll well). Also, losing Nievre is a sign of an extremely bad election. They lost it in the 1992 regionals, 1993 legislatives, 1994 Euros.



Unsurprising and a very uniform map. The remnants of the UDF map plus a surprisingly strong vote for Lepage in Normandie (she was councillor of a town in the Calvados), a favourite son vote for Bruno Joncour in Cotes-d'Armor (he's the Mayor and was second on the list). Tarn is a bit weird - is Rochefort from there?



The strong FN vote is not returning strongly in Alsace or Lorraine. It seems more of a return to a 1986-style map (Pieds-Noir territory plus some strength out East) plus Nord Ouest (I assume a fair share of FN voters who voted for Sarkozy in 2007 have returned due to the recession hitting harder there than elsewhere). The FN is dead out West and the Parti Breton outpolled them in a fair number of places



Left Front. Some strong showings in the old PCF lands, especially the Red Rural areas (Limousin, Allier) plus the Gard (old PCF stronghold), Cher (ditto, but less so). The PCF still dominates the far-left share of the workers' vote, unsurprisingly little NPA breakthrough there. They're far stronger than Besancenot's bunch in the NPDC region. I don't see what the PG adds. I thought the Ariege and Hautes-Pyrenees at first, but there's a sizeable PCF vote there, though this year's showing is quite high.



Unsurprising far-left map, but there's a number of interesting intricacies in this map. Firstly, the decline of the old "Maoist"/young crazy revolutionary vote in the Greater Paris which probably went Green. I remember reading somewhere that the NPA was becoming more working class and less young revolutionary idiot than the LCR was. I would note the poor results in the NPDC, proof if there is of the NPA not breaking through with blue collar workers, though the results in industrial Lorraine seem pretty solid. As always, a fair share of the modern far-left vote used to vote PCF in the '80's and early '90's and have started to vote for Trots (Laguiller then Besancenot) since 2002 if not before. Reflected on the map.



lol Libertas. Traditional de Villiers map for the Ouest with his results declining the father out you get from Montaigu. The CPNT effect has been quite minimal, visible in the Somme, Manche. Marie-Claude Bompard was second on Patrick Louis' list and could explain the Vauclus result. The Est results probably also based on favourite sons.



Too tired to analyse this (History exam 'morrow). Feel free to add to my analysis if I forgot anything or said something stupid again.

If anybody has specific requests for parties I didn't do (I might do DLR and LO a bit later, if I feel like it - though DLR is going to be kind of a Libertas map centred around Essonne instead - over 5% for DLR there [NDA's home turf]), please ask and I'll do them as fast as possible. Don't ask me for jokes like the Royalists or Esperanto people, since I ain't doing that.

I hope to post some exit poll results tomorrow, though.

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- The PS map is fascinating. Just one word: old. It seems as if we are in the 1970s (with vallée du Rhône lower, though).
And Ile-de-France is really very, very bad for them.
Lorraine and Franche-Comté are the only less bad surprises, but it's just in comparison with bad results in Ile-de-France and Greater West.

Yeah, it's a return to the old maps of the '70's pre-Mitterrand's victory.

- The Front de Gauche map is very interesting but disappointing for Mélenchon. Indeed, his personal bonus is very low.
The only departements were it seems there are some votes outside the PCF are Landes (an Emmanuelli effect ?), Indre-et-Loire (but there is a communist stronghold in Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, a poor suburb of Tours) and... Lozère.
So, Mélenchon probably gained some votes in the South-West but it was not much and very uniformly throughout the consitutency.

The Left's top candidate in Massif-Centre was in fact a PCF Senator and Mayor of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, so more a favourite daughter vote. Lozère actually has a rump Communist vote left over in the Cévennes, and the PCF actually holds a canton there - though the Left's showing is quite above average this time.

I was thinking of doing a % change map between the PCF in 2004 and the Left this time - their results are quasi-identical.

- In the MoDem map, good results in Tarn and Aveyron may be explained by the nr.2 of the list who was an incumbent MEP and a mayor of Puylaurens in Tarn.
Lozère and Aveyron are most traditional strongholds for the UDF.
Sure, the MoDem map seems a bit like the old UDF one, but not in the detail and, in fact, it's more like an addition of local favourite sons: Bayrou, Lepage, this mayor of Puylaurens, Joncour.
But in some old strongholds of the UDF: Lyonnais, vallée de la Loire between Angers and Orleans, the MoDem is weak. And, added to a bad result in Ile-de-France, it's very disappointing for the future.

Ah, that explains the Tarn then. Interesting how we're seeing favourite son effects for the second candidates on the lists now and not the top candidate. I really hate this stupid constituency game with fake PR and favourite son/daugther/family maps.

- Libertas: CPNT brought only its right voters (Manche, Somme), but not its left voters (Gironde, Landes, Aveyron). It's especially clear in Gironde.
All this MPF-CPNT joke is fading, now...

The CPNT's effect is really declining. I wonder if the CPNT had run alone again this year if we would have seen the same results for them in the southwest.

- The UMP map isn't a good one: not very structured...
Moselle is especially worrying: popular ex-FN vote has gone back... Your map with 2007-2009 is very clever.
Vallée du Rhône is bad, even if Rhône itself is good.
Normandy is bas as well, especially Calvados (no longer a right department ?!) and Eure.

Yeah, as I said, Sarkozy's gains with manual workers have been really eliminated.

- The NPA isn't doing well in the North-West, in comparison with the former maps of extreme-left (with this "banana" from Nantes to Lille to Metz).
Bad results in Ile-de-France and Nord-Pas-de-Clais has hurt the NPA, as well as very low numbers in Bouches-du-Rhône.
So, not very pormising for them in the future

Not very promising at all. You have them losing votes in the far-left's traditional Nordistes strongholds and also loosing the young (and well-off, o/c) revolutionary vote in urban areas. A very unstructured map, but as tsio said, the NPA doesn't give me the impression that elections are a big thing for them. Besancenot prefers to go in the streets and be a fraud.

- The FN map isn't a good one for them, as the North-East and, especially, Rhône-Alpes are weak. So, it's not completely worrying for the UMP. I would say former blue-collar FN voters didn't vote this time.
The FN map is strictly a Le Pens' family map:
see Orne (in North-West constituency, Marine's one) far better than Eure-et-Loir (in Centre constituency and an old stronghold of FN);
see Val-d'Oise and Seine-et-Marne far lower than Oise (same remark);
see Saône-et-Loire, Jura (in the North-East constituency) which are close to Lyonnais and Gollnisch's normal base and which are traditionally strong departments for the FN but did bad this time despite Gollnisch;
see Jean-Marie himself having good results only in Provence, not in Rhône-Alpes.
So, it seems as if it's back to 1986 but it's not: it's just Le Pens' family map.

I would think the only blue-collar ex-FN voters who voted FN this time are those in areas hard hit by the recession. It's far from universal, as you said.

You're right on this being a family map - though I still find similarities between this one and 1986 quite striking.

- The AEI map is Waechter (Alsace and Lorraine) plus Patrice Drevet (a former weather anchor) in the South West plus Francis Lalanne (out-of-date singer and "poet") in the South East.

Lalanne's effect has been limited to Provence and Waechter, like in 2004, did not break through outside of Alsace. Moselle is quite bad for him. IIRC, he did quite well there in 2004.

Specific requests:
DLR and LO, of course. Since LO is an "old" party now and comparisons are always interesting in the long term.
Will DLR be a real map ? The point may be to compare DLR's map with Marie-France Garaud's one in 1981...!

No smaller lists: absolutely useless.

But, Europe Ecologie + AEI would be interesting to make, in order to compare to old Green maps of the 1980s and 1990s.

Maybe a PS+Greens map, in comparison with Royal+Voynet in 2007, just to see it hasn't really changed and that Europe Ecologie has eaten the PS vote.

Maybe a LO+NPA map, only if LO map is interesting in comparison with NPA's one.

If you wish, I could send you a spreadsheet where you just need to enter the results for the parties, send the spreadsheet back to me, and I'll generate a map (I have a secret map generator ). Same for Antonio. Just PM/email me if need be.

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As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

[Hash]

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

You really should change your nickname, see the effect on the webpages...

Oh, damn. Ought to find another Asterix nickname then.

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

I'm very interested too!

Will send!

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Ozewiezewozewiezewallakristallix

I don't remember of that one. Which book?

Dutch version of Ocatarinetabellatchitchix. I just took it because it's such a weird gibberish-sounding name.

Anyways, I should post some interesting exit poll data this afternoon.

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Ah, the CDSP is officially made of win. Departmental Euro results since 1979 and results by constituency (!) for the latest ones!

Plus the good ol' stuff they offer, like presidential results since 1965.

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Exit poll stuff, only citing those parties over 5% in categories

By Gender
Male: UMP 26, PS 17, GRN 15, MD 10, FN 9, Left 6, NPA 5, Libertas 5
Female: UMP 31, GRN 17, PS 17, Left 7, MD 6, Libertas 5, NPA 5

Age
18-24: UMP 21, FN 20, GRN 18, MD 11, PS 11, NPA 8
25-34: GRN 22, PS 16, UMP 14, FN 13, MD 11, AEI 8, NPA 8
25-49: GRN 24, UMP 17, PS 16, MD 11, NPA 7, FN 5, Left 5, Libertas 5
50-64: UMP 27, PS 22, GRN 16, Left 9, Libertas 7, NPA 6, MD 5
65+: UMP 44, PS 15, GRN 8, MD 8, Left 6, Libertas 6, FN 5

Socio-Professional Category
PCS+: GRN 26, UMP 22, PS 17, MD 10, Left 6
-Artisans etc: UMP 38, GRN 16, Libertas 8, PS 8, MD 7, DLR 6, FN 5, Left 5
-CPIS: GRN 32, UMP 24, PS 15, MD 12, Left 6
-Intermediary Prof: GRN 24, PS 21, UMP 14, MD 10, NPA 7, Left 6, AEI 6
PCS-: PS 17, GRN 17, UMP 17, FN 14, NPA 10, MD 8, Left 6
-Employee: GRN 24, PS 23, UMP 21, MD 11, NPA 9, Left 5
-Manual Workers: FN 21, UMP 15, PS 13, GRN 13, NPA 11, Left 6, MD 6, LO 5
Retirees: UMP 38, PS 17, GRN 8, Libertas 8, MD 7, Left 7, FN 6

Party ID and Ideology
Left + Far Left: PS 38, GRN 27, Left 12, NPA 10,
-Far Left: NPA 49, Left 12, GRN 11, LO 10, PS 8
-PCF: Left 77, PS 11
-PS: PS 62, GRN 20, Left 5
-Green Party: GRN 73, MD 15
MoDem: MD 71, GRN 10, UMP 9
Right + Far Right: UMP 67, FN 14, Libertas 9
-UMP: UMP 85
-FN: FN 88

Diploma
No Certifications: UMP 33, PS 18, FN 9, Left 8, GRN 7, AEI 7, Libertas 7, MD 5
BEPC, CAP, BEP: UMP 30, PS 14, FN 11, GRN 10, Libertas 9, NPA 7, Left 6
BAC: UMP 30, PS 16, GRN 15, FN 11, MD 7, Left 5, NPA 5
Higher Education: UMP 26, GRN 23, PS 19, MD 12, Left 6, NPA 5

2007 Vote
Anti-Liberal Left: Left 36, NPA 21, GRN 19, PS 10, AEI 7
-Besancenot: NPA 40, GRN 20, AEI 14, Left 10, Others 8, PS 6
-Buffet: Left 91
Royal: PS 46, GRN 26, Left 9, NPA 6
Voynet: GRN 87, PS 8, UMP 5
Bayrou: MD 43, GRN 20, UMP 12, PS 8
Sarkozy: UMP 74, Libertas 7
Le Pen: FN 78, Libertas 12
Royal/Runoff: PS 36, GRN 27, Left 13, NPA 8, MD 7
Sarko/Runoff: UMP 58, FN 8, Libertas 8, MD 7, GRN 6

2005 Vote
YES: UMP 42, PS 19, GRN 16, MD 9
NO: Left 17, PS 15, GRN 15, FN 12, NPA 9, Libertas 8, MD 6

2004 Euros Vote
PS Lists: PS 54, GRN 23, MD 8, Left 6
UDF Lists: UMP 56, MD 27, GRN 15


Party Data

(as percentage of party's electorate)

Most Disproportionately Male: FN 74%, MD 64%
Most Disproportionately Female: DLR 62%
Female Majority Electorates: Left (51), GRN (52), AEI (54), UMP (54), DLR (62), Libertas (52), OTH (51)

Most Disproportionately PCS+: Greens 55%
Most Disproportionately PCS-: LO 64%
Most Disproportionately Retired: Libertas 71%, UMP 61%

Most Disproportionately Educated: MD 62% have higher education, Greens 61%

Most Disproportionately Pro-EU (2005 YES): UMP 72%
Most Disproportionately Anti-EU (2005 NO): Left 81%


Motivations and Interest

Interest in Campaign: NO 76 / YES 24
-Most Interested: UMP 62%, Left 60%
-Least Interested: FN 68%, NPA 53%

Vote to express support in gov't: 30% (UMP 81%)
Vote to express discontent in gov't: 45% (Left 84%)
Did not vote based on gov't: 23% (Green 37%)

Voted based on European issues: 60% (Green 77%)
Voted based on French issues: 36% (FN 70%, NPA 65%)

"Attached" to EU: 53% (MD 89%, Green 88%, UMP 86%)
Not "Attached": 46%

Reforms should speed up: 32%
Slow down: 27%
Maintain at current rate: 35%

52% of PS voters say the PS is not left-wing enough
28% of PS voters say the PS should be close to MD/Greens; 27% say the party should decide based on issues, 26% say the party should do neither

http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2009.06.07-sondage-jour-du-vote.pdf