General Election called in Greece

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Good news for me:

BTW, 30 June 2007 poll

ND 36.1%
PASOK 35.1%
KKE (Communist) 7.6%
Synaspismos 4.3%
Popular Orthodox Rally 4.2%
Other 0.6%
Unsure 12.1%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election

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2004 results:

ND 45.4% (165 seats)
PASOK 40.5% (117 seats)
KKE 5.9% (12 seats)
Coalition of the Radical Left (now Synaspismos) 3.3% (6 seats)
--Winning 0 seats--
Popular Orthodox Rally 2.2%
Democratic Social Movement 1.8%
Union of Centrists 0.3%
Radical Left Front 0.2%
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) 0.2%
Anti-Capitalist Coalition 0.1%
Hellenic Front 0.1%
Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece 0.1%
Militant Socialist Party of Greece 0%
Liberal Party (Greece) 0%
Organization for the Reconstruction of the Communist Party of Greece 0%
Independents 0.01%
Hristopistia 0.0%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election%2C_2004

2006 locals for predictions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_local_elections%2C_2006

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Interesting to see that both major parties seem to have lost a lot of support from last time round. Why?

Well KKE, LAOS, Synaspismos picked up support, so some of their supporters might be former PASOK, ND supporters.

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So, which one is the party where some of its members were affiliated with that weird Nazi Ufo sect which claims that Greeks are in fact genetically superior supermen from outer space? LAOS?

I assume that'd be LAOS, which is also anti-semitic and messed up.

If my understanding of the Greek election system is correct, LAOS should wins seats, although probably less than 5.

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New poll, released on Angus-reid, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16980

Numbers August 2007 compared to June 07

ND 31% (-5.
PASOK 29.5% (-6.3)
KKE 7% (+0.6)
Synaspismos 4.3% (+0.5)
Popular Orthodox Rally 3.5% (-0.3)

Source: Metron Analysis
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,056 Greek adults, conducted from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Another August 22 poll: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16957

ND 36.2%
PASOK 34.6%
KKE 7.1%
Popular Orthodox Rally 4.6%
Synaspismos 4.2%

Government preference gave 41.6% prefering the ND and 37.4% favored PASOK, 24% favored neither or were unsure.

Source: GPO
Methodology: Interviews to 2,000 Greek adults, conducted from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
 

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Synaspismos and DIKKI will form a common list, if it had been the case in 2004 the total of the vote of the two would have been 5.1%

Results 2004 link: http://www.ypes.gr/ekloges/content/EN/ethnik_fr.htm

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They'll never be able to hold a general election with these wildfires surely!

It is only a part af Peloponnes that is affected - but the campaigns has been suspended in respect of the victims (the fires are a very bad case for the government)

Note on electoral geography;

The northern Peloponnesus (Ilia and Achaia) were two of the ten prefectures to vote PASOK in 2004, Korinthia voted PASOK in 2000, and Arkadia voted PASOK in 1996. Achaia is solid PASOK land btw.

The other southern prefectures of Peloponnesus voted ND 1996-2004.

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Some polls

New Democracy (ND) 35.2%
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) 33.2%
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) 7.3%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYR) 4.4%
People’s Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) 3.9%

New Democracy (ND) 35.0%
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) 34.2%
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) 6.5%
People’s Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) 3.6%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYR) 3.4%

Apparently, a law forbids publication of any more polls in Greece until the 16th, wiki says the remaining polls will come out in the Cypriot press.

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I have to ask... are LAOS for real..?

I mean, Seriously?

Sadly, yes they are. The FN seems liberal compared to that bunch of anti-semitic, conspiracy theorist people. Can't believe such a party will be able to get seats (unfortunately)

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Correction, the VPRC was not a poll but it was a projection on their part of the election day vote. With 42%, ND would likely get a majority. As other polls state though, they would have only a plurality.

How can the ND still be leading in the polls after what happened this summer!?!

Actually, an article in The Independent I think said the far-right got a boost with these wildfires, as neither the ND or PASOK were able to get votes out of the fires.

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But in case it got only 1/2% more than the PASOK,could the socialists form a government with the KKE and SYR,or are they like Germany's SPD?

There is a precedent, for example in June 1989 ND won with a 5% PV lead but a PASOK electoral law prevented ND from forming a government so PASOK-SYN formed a government. That lasted until November 1989 with a ND-PASOK-SYN government. That lasted until 1990.

Not sure if they'd do it again though.

But you might want to know the leading party has a 40 seat bonus, even if its a 0.01% lead. And Karamanlis said that if no party has a majority, they'll hold another election. So ND or PASOK need atleast 111 seats to form a majority government.

A last note- last predictions call the election too close to call until the last minute.

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Ok,so ND or PASOK roughly need 40% in order to be able to have a majority,right?
And thanks for your answers,I am a complete newbie in Greek politics.

42% to be exact. (111 is 42.7% of all seats BTW)

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Blue for ND, Green for PASOK, Red for KKE, Gold for SYR, Dark blue for LAOS

ND 45.4% (165 seats)
PASOK 40.5% (117 seats)
KKE 5.9% (12 seats)
Coalition of the Radical Left (now Synaspismos) 3.3% (6 seats)
--Winning 0 seats--
Popular Orthodox Rally 2.2%
Democratic Social Movement 1.8% --- now in Synaspismos-SYZRIA
Union of Centrists 0.3%
Radical Left Front 0.2%
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) 0.2%
Anti-Capitalist Coalition 0.1%
Hellenic Front 0.1%
Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece 0.1%
Militant Socialist Party of Greece 0%
Liberal Party (Greece) 0%
Organization for the Reconstruction of the Communist Party of Greece 0%
Independents 0.01%
Hristopistia 0.0%

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I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

Actually not quite, both the ND and PASOK are down from 45% and 40% in 2004 to around 36% and 35% now. The biggest gains should be LAOS, which should gain representation, KKE, and some tiny gains for the Radical left. (though that poll includes roughly 13% undecided)

With undecideds divided equally between the top 5 and taking into consideration around 2% for other parties we should get:

ND 38.16%
PASOK 36.96%
KKE 9.16%
LAOS 7.06%
SYZRIA 6.66%
Others 2.00%
TOTAL 100%
 
So some moderate loses for PASOK, a probable loss of majority for ND, and gains for KKE, LAOS, SYZRIA. I predict the other parties will be the ones coming out re-enforced.

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I really hate those manipulated electoral systems!

This is a new system in use for the first time (it was introduced by PASOK in 2004). This new one is actually better than the old ND system which gave a majority of seats even with 40%!

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

Actually not quite, both the ND and PASOK are down from 45% and 40% in 2004 to around 36% and 35% now. The biggest gains should be LAOS, which should gain representation, KKE, and some tiny gains for the Radical left. (though that poll includes roughly 13% undecided)

With undecideds divided equally between the top 5 and taking into consideration around 2% for other parties we should get:

ND 38.16%
PASOK 36.96%
KKE 9.16%
LAOS 7.06%
SYZRIA 6.66%
Others 2.00%
TOTAL 100%
 
So some moderate loses for PASOK, a probable loss of majority for ND, and gains for KKE, LAOS, SYZRIA. I predict the other parties will be the ones coming out re-enforced.

I predict the following:

PASOK: 40%
ND: 39%
KKE: 8%
LAOS: 5%
SYRIZA: 5%
Others: 3%

OK, just saw the PASOK got 40.5% in 2004, so it would be more like a stagnation for them and a loss for the ND ...

Mine is not a prediction, just dividing the 12.7% undecided equally and taking into account 2-3% others. I'll do a prediction later on but I suck at predicting elections. Guess why I suck in estimation in math

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2004 polls just for comparison: http://www.greekelections.com/portal/en/polls/2004.asp?state=polls

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I predict

ND 39%
PASOK 38%
KKE 8%
LAOS 6%
SYR 5%
Others 4%

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Coming soon...

Go ND!

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71.05% voted, 37.05% reporting

ND 43.87% 157
PASOK 38.52% 103
KKE 7.24% 19
SYZRIA 4.34% 12
LAOS 3.37% 9

Map soon

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Actually its not a 42% bonus, its a FPTP bonus.

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71.37% voted, 42.26% reporting

ND 43.61% 156
PASOK 38.55% 103
KKE 7.35% 20
SYZRIA 4.39% 12
LAOS 3.40% 9

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PASOK loses Rethymnis! That's solid PASOK land!

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Lol @ Radio Canada giving ND 45%

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Actually its not a 42% bonus, its a FPTP bonus.

Only if you get more than 41,5-42%. If ND gets 41 % they don't get the extra 40 mandates, even if they are the largest party, as far as I understand the electoral rules. Still thinks that it is a lousy way to create a majority (or a different way to ensure a two party system)

Well Wikipedia says its for the simple FPTP party, with no other rules on that, and that's how I've always seen it.

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