French Locals 2008

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Elections next year for all municipal councillors and mayors elected in 2001, half of cantons officeholders (county officeholders) elected in 2001. In September, indirect Senatorial elections.

Discuss.

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Lol a Alliance Royal candidate in the Paris municipal elections!

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Because they won 0.000005% or something of the vote in 2004 European elections. Their best was what, 0.3% in the Ouest ridings?

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Bump.

For those interested, this has results for many elections, among them Cantonales and Municipals since 1989. (Second round too).

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Nationwide poll:

UMP 33%
PS 32%
MoDem 10%
Greens 8%
FN 8%
PCF 5%
EXG 4%

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Bump.

Some predictions

Paris: PS hold
Lyon: PS hold Collomb should easily win, he extremely high approvals (nearing 90% IIRC). 58-42 in a runoff against Perben (52-48 in October iirc). He'd get 49% by round one against 32% for the right and 8% (lol) for the MoDem; who won't make the runoff (mainly because Begag isn't the candidate) in what VGE called the "city of the UDF". No numbers for the FN though
Bordeaux: Close, but UMP hold is likely here (for now atleast)
Marseille: Close, but UMP hold
Lille: City itself, easy PS hold; but Pierre Mauroy (PS president of the Lille Urban Area) should lose to the UMP apparently.
Rennes: PS hold, might be closer because Herve is retiring
Pau: GM hold likely
Nice: UMP hold but Estrosi is opposed by UMP incumbent (now DVD) Peyrat
Toulouse: Tossup. No prediction
Strasbourg: UMP hold

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March 9 and 16, municipal and cantonale (not all OC, those elected in 2001 only).

My aunt is standing as a Green candidate in her tiny village in the 35.

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March 9 and 16, municipal and cantonale (not all OC, those elected in 2001 only).

My aunt is standing as a Green candidate in her tiny village in the 35.

Does that village have a history of voting Green?

Small villages are weird, especially there (382 voters), there's not really a trend. Le Pen won in 2002 (first round obviously), but Royal won in 2007, and the UMP won in the 2007 general election. Green vote is above average.

Of course, that's all useless in such tiny villages with weird patterns and complex voting laws (she told me you could scratch out a list candidate's name on the ballot). She is on the incumbent mayor's list (and mayors are relatively popular in France with a few exceptions) and the opposition is some concerned hunters list.

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March 9 and 16, municipal and cantonale (not all OC, those elected in 2001 only).

My aunt is standing as a Green candidate in her tiny village in the 35.

Does that village have a history of voting Green?

Small villages are weird, especially there (382 voters), there's not really a trend. Le Pen won in 2002 (first round obviously), but Royal won in 2007, and the UMP won in the 2007 general election. Green vote is above average.

Of course, that's all useless in such tiny villages with weird patterns and complex voting laws (she told me you could scratch out a list candidate's name on the ballot). She is on the incumbent mayor's list (and mayors are relatively popular in France with a few exceptions) and the opposition is some concerned hunters list.

Le Pen then Royal? That is weird. So you think she'll be elected?

It's very likely. I think she's quite well known in the village.

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LeMonde.fr's analysis

UMP > PS/PCF
Bordeaux
Perigueux
Toulouse
Aix-en-Provence
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Argenteuil
Caen

MoDem > PS
Saint Brieuc
Rouen

PS > UMP
Angers
Montpellier
Villeurbanne
Chambery
Tourcoing

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LeMonde's map of 40 cities:

Clicky

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Lille, IFOP

PS 43%
UMP 21%
Greens 10%
MoDem 8%
FN 7%
EXG 7%

PS 64%
UMP 36%

Marseille maps:



With this map, I can re-affirm my prediction that Gaudin is safe, as I have been saying for a long time.

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Lille, IFOP

PS 43%
UMP 21%
Greens 10%
MoDem 8%
FN 7%
EXG 7%

PS 64%
UMP 36%

Stunned. I'm stunned.

So was I. What's interesting is that Aubry is now up nearly 10% in the first round compared to 2001; while the right is down only one. The Greens are also down, but also the FN who likely won't get into the runoff here as they did in 2001. (Aubry won with 49% in 2001 IIRC).

Re; Marseille, the PCF lost their last National Assembly seat last year (isn't it the first time Marseille didn't elect at least one Commie since the '30's or something?). How likely are they to hold onto the remaining local government strongholds in and around the city?

I'd say that if the Socialists are not running a candidate against the PCF incumbent here, they could hold it. But the right has a generally good chance I'd say in sector 8 overall. Don't forget that the far-right (especially the MNR) is quite strong here, the MNR took 22% in the 2001 runoff and the FN managed to get 8% in the June debacle, so there's a chance the far-right could potentially go into the runoff (I'm not sure of the runoff rules here). OC I don't know if the PCF incumbent is running again, but if he is it's likely he is under the Socialist list which means he has no PS opposition, barring dissidents (the PS did run a candidate in that constituency in 2007 and that candidate did in fact win. They did run a candidate in 2002 too, but the Communists were able to beat them).

In Septemes-les-Vallons, the Communist won unopposed in 2001. The Communists still won the two towns themselves in June (but not the constituency as a whole OC). What's weird is that Sarkozy won the towns in May (Buffet did take 22% in La Rove though!). They would seem in a generally good position, but don't write off any upset.

 

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LeMonde's map of 40 cities:

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wow, my birthplace, Angers, is in the balance ?
It seems to be very improbable, as all these polls too favorable to Aubry or Collomb... I know that the mayor popularity is specially high at the end of the forst term, but i remember the failure of the polls in 2001, they predicted a large socialist victory...

I couldn't say about Angers, but you're correct on the high popularity of mayors in cities and that's the reason why I predict no upsets in major cities.
I guess LeMonde used 2007 results to determine their map

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Apparently a CSA poll (national, which means bullsh**t polling) put the left (PS-PCF-Greenies) at 46%, UMP-DVD at 40%, MD at 7%, FN at 2% (LOL) and the far-left also at 2%.

Of course, national polls mean bullsh**t in LOCAL elections, so trash it.

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and don't forget Henin-Beaumont which should to go to FN.

It's far from certain. It will be close, but if the FN is polling as low as 2% nationally, then no.

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Some good news for UMP supporters coming from Toulouse:

BVA
UMP 43%
PS 39%
MoDem 5%
Alternatifs 5%
LCR 4%
FN 4%
NSP 8%

UMP 50%
PS 50%

This coming from a department with no UMP deputies and where Royal was very strong in 2007. Apparently Moudenc (UMP incumbent) is quite popular, more than his predecessor.

A PS gain is still quite likely, but I'm not writing off a UMP hold.

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http://www.ouest-france.fr/Bordeaux-Alain-Juppe-pour-l-instant-favori/re/municipales2008_detail/dossiers_13228-543301------_actu.html

Wow. Just wow.

Juppe leads 52-39 in the first round.

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Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

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Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

Isn't it only part of it? IIRC the constituency to the north is more conservative, the one to the south more lefty.

It is indeed, but Umengus phrased it the way that he is popular everywhere in his city.

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Lyon poll.

PS 55%
UMP 32%
MD 8%

or

PS 59%
UMP 36%

"Runoff"

PS 60%
UMP 40%

Collomb 78% good opinions
Perben 41% good opinions

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I'm happy.

Le Monde has a map of Rennes:



The race is uninteresting because Rennes is very leftish, so Daniel Delaveau (mayor of Saint Jacques de la Lande) will easily win and take Herve's post (Herve is standing down, having been there since 1977). The UMP candidate is an Arab IIRC. The MD, Greens, FN, and PT are also running.

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Paris, CSA
PS-PCF 44% (-)
UMP 36% (-1)
MD 9% (+2)
Greens 6% (+1)
EXG 3% (-1)
FN 2% (-1)  (FN-MNR 2001, over 5.7%)

PS-PCF 57%
UMP 43%

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Re: PS/PCF

Apparently the Socialists are starting to abandon their Communist 'allies' in the 9-3, in many cities PCF incumbents will have Socialist opposition.

Other interesting facts because I'm bored in class.

France has 36,783 villages/towns/cities, a EU record. 21,000 of those have less than 500 people.
500,000 councillors. 267 out of 577 MPs are mayors, 125 out of 331 Senators are mayors.

EDIT: Re: Lyon... Collomb is ultra-safe, and IIRC Alain Delon and Deupardieu appeared with him at some event:



The UMP has merit for choosing awful candidates. Panafieu is an arrogant snob, Perben is in Lyon since only 4 years, Christian Vanneste is an homophobe in a city where the UMP has a real chance at a gain (Turcoing). I'm not too pleased with the choice of UMP candidates, especially in Paris, but what the hell... as long as NC and GM do well and the UMP re-elects a few mayors in the big cities, I'll be happy.

It's a lost cause for the right to have hopes of gaining in Paris or Lyon.

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Christian Vanneste is an homophobe in a city where the UMP has a real chance at a gain (Turcoing).

I'm afraid it will be not a serious disadvantage; on the contrary in this kind of town, i guess it will help Vanneste to attract FN voters...

I'm not much into political demographics of the Nord, but could it potentially turn off centrists or GayLib-type voters that would vote UMP?