French Deparmental and Regional elections - 20th/27th June 2021

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So, this is tomorrow, right? Yeah, I haven't followed much and the outcome is likely to recomfort me in my decision to avoid paying attention to these elections, and in any case I'm meeting a friend rather than following results tomorrow.

A quick reminder of the rules of the game:

For the regional elections, the threshold to qualify for the second round is 10% of valid votes (7% in Corsica). A list which has won less than 10% but more than 5% may merge with a qualified list. In the runoff, the winning list receives a majority bonus of 25% of all seats, the remaining 75% of the seats are distributed proportionally. This means that there is a possibility that, in a three or four-way runoff, the winning list may not win an absolute majority even with the majority bonus - this would likely happen if the winning list only wins ~33% of the vote. In 2015, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, in a close three-way runoff, the victorious left-wing list won 34.7% and 51 out of the 100 seats, a one-seat majority. Given the very high possibility of closely disputed three or even four-way runoffs in some metropolitan regions, next week we could very well see one regional council without an absolute majority.

For the departmental elections, 'ghost' elections largely ignored and forgotten by the national media, there are 2,054 cantons which each elect two councillors (one man, one woman), a binôme (which run as a single ticket). The rules are the same as for legislative elections here: to win outright in the first round, a ticket must win an absolute majority and at least 25% of registered voters; to qualify for the second round, a ticket must win at least 12.5% of registered voters (if no ticket has obtained this, then the top two qualify) and there is no possibility of mergers. Therefore, with turnout expected to be quite low, we will likely see fewer first round victories (even if a ticket has 50%+ of votes cast) and fewer three-way runoffs. In 2015, with turnout just below 50%, there were 278 triangulaires (about 14.6% of second round matchups) and 149 first round victories.


Here are my assorted thoughts, if anybody cares:

• Incumbent presidents, especially those elected in their own right six years ago, will have an advantage and most of them should be reelected. Presidents who replaced someone since 2015 - Renaud Muselier (LR, PACA), Jean Rottner (LR, Grand Est), Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS, Bretagne) and Christelle Morançais (LR, PdL) - will face a tougher contest.
• Given the electoral system, the division of the political field in four (left/macronismo/right/RN) and the difficulty of reconciling these parts, all regions will likely see at least three-way runoffs if not four-way runoffs. These can be quite uncertain, as Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val de Loire in 2015 demonstrated. As mentioned above, this also opens the possibility of a regional council without any absolute majorities if the victorious list only 'wins' with a third or less of the vote in the runoff next Sunday.
• The left, as always, is divided almost everywhere (split in two if not three or more), and even if it is united in the two regions where it is at its weakest (PACA and Hauts-de-France, where they have no representation after having withdrawn from the runoffs in 2015 to block the far-right), that's still not enough to even hope for a second place in elections polarized between the right and RN. In some regions, with their divisions, the left are playing with fire and, if things don't go well, they could be dealt a very nasty surprise: not qualifying for the runoff (I still have nasty memories of what happened in Languedoc-Roussillon in 2010). In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the two top left-wing lists (one PS+allies and EELV+allies) are evenly matched and both hovering close to the 10% threshold, which is too close for comfort. In Île-de-France, there are three left-wing lists (Julien Bayou's EELV-G.s, Audrey Pulvar's PS-PRG-PP and Clémentine Autain's LFI-PCF) which are very closely packed, again right around that 10% threshold.
• Macronismo has gone it own ways everywhere except in PACA, where they are supporting LR (something which created a long and confusing psychodrama on the right, which might have been FBM's intention all along). Several prominent figures and cabinet ministers have lined up: Marc Fesneau (MoDem junior minister for parliamentary relations in Centre), Brigitte Klinkert (DVD ex-LR junior minister for professional inclusion in Grand Est), Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM sec. of state for pensions in Hauts-de-France), Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem junior minister for veterans in Nouvelle-Aquitaine), Marlène Schiappa (LREM junior minister for citizenship is the top candidate on the list in Paris), Amélie de Montchalin (LREM minister of the civil service is the top candidate on the list in Essonne) and Éric Dupond-Moretti (justice minister is the top candidate in the Pas-de-Calais).
  In most places, LREM is likely to do rather poorly, although they should clear the 10% threshold nearly everywhere. Their strongest regions will likely be Bretagne, Pays-de-la-Loire, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Centre. Their behaviour may become quite critical in several regions in the second round: given that alliances with LREM would likely do more harm than good for both the left and right in most places, they're unlikely to be wanted (although Jean-Yves Le Drian would love to see his old PS and LREM reconcile - without the pesky greenies - in his Breton hometurf, although the PS might not want that), but in some cases they might be needed, particularly if the RN is a real threat.
• RN's best chance at winning a region is PACA - where they are probably favourites now, even if the left and macronismo were to withdraw to block them and create a two-way runoff. RN has benefited from a perfect storm in PACA: it is naturally one of their strongest regions; the LR-LREM alliance psychodrama with LR incumbent Muselier backfired and has played right into the hands of the RN's strategy here, which is to be the real right-wing alternative to a confusing and Macron-contaminated old right. For that, their candidate helps as well: Thierry Mariani, now a RN MEP/lobbyist for Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad, is a former (very right-wing and FN-adjacent) UMP deputy and was a (very forgettable) cabinet minister under Sarkozy, and had already run in PACA in 2010 as the UMP's candidate.
• The RN has a realistic shot in several other regions: Centre (an underrated possibility of a real clusterfark in a potential 4-way runoff), Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (again in the case of a 4-way runoff), Normandie (as previous), Grand Est (as previous, depending on whether Rottner allies with LREM, as some on the right have suspected him of wanting to do) and Hauts-de-France (as previous: here it may come down if Macron wants to roll the dice on a RN victory here if it could potentially scuttle Xavier Bertrand's 2022 candidacy). But I would be wary of making overly pessimistic or optimistic predictions about the runoff even before we have first round numbers: a lot can happen in that week, as 2015 showed.
• The left's best chance at gaining a region in metropolitan France seems to be the Pays-de-la-Loire, a region where muh trends have in general been favourable to the left. LR incumbent Christelle Morançais took over from Bruno Retailleau in 2017 and is not very well known. While she will likely finish first with an anemic result tomorrow, she will have almost no reserves. Whereas the left could benefit from second round unity: in the first round they are split between the PS-PCF-PRG's Guillaume Garot (Mayenne deputy, former agriculture minister and former mayor of Laval) and EELV-LFI-G.s's Matthieu Orphelin (ex-EELV and ex-LREM deputy close to Nicolas Hulot), with the latter having an advantage. LREM's candidate is Loire-Atlantique deputy and former environment minister François de Rugy, fan of taxpayer-funded lobster dinners, who may win upwards of 15%.
• Corsica will be an interesting mess: unlike in 2017, the outgoing nationalist majority is divided between three lists: executive council president Gilles Simeoni's autonomist Femu a Corsica, Assembly president Jean-Guy Talamoni's separatist Corsica Libera and Porto-Vecchio mayor Jean-Christophe Angelini's PNC; in addition to the more radical separatist Rinnovu/Core in Fronte led by Paul-Félix Benedetti. Together they face a stronger and united (!) right, led by Ajaccio mayor Laurent Marcangeli. Next week will be interesting...

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I'll make some quick graphs on the basis of Ifop and Ipsos exit poll (not actually an exit poll, but everyone thinks it is) data, beginning with the biggest loser: turnout



The last category on the far right refers to vote in the 2019 EP elections.

The strongest correlation by far, perhaps even the only real one, is age. Old people voted, young people didn't. Old people are also more likely to vote for the traditional right (and LREM in 2019), so that explains why Fillon 2017/LR 2019 voters had the highest turnout. On the other hand, Panzergirl 2017 and Mélenchon 2017 mobilized a lot of low-propensity voters, including probably a lot of the (increasingly common) types who only vote in presidential elections and ignore the rest. There's also an interesting gender gap, either 6 points or 13 (!), which is interesting and I'm unsure what's behind it.

Ifop's data is also broken down by composition, so we can have an idea of the composition of yesterday's electorate:
53% male
40% over 65
42% retired
49% economically active incl. 14% CSP+, 23% CSP-
37% well off or upper middle-class (per capita monthly income over 1900 euros)
10% poor (per capita monthly income below 900 euros)
16% without declared partisan/political identification

And of non-voters
54% female
21% over 65
59% economically active incl. 15% CSP+, 28% CSP-
32% well off or upper middle-class
17% poor
38% without declared partisan/political identification

And here's what the 2017 election may have looked like if only yesterday's voters had turned up:
Fillon 25%
Macron 21%
Le Pen 20%
Mélenchon 11%
Hamon 6%

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Time for a proper analysis of the results, not some lazy stuff, and a preview of the runoffs based on alliances concluded or not.

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-Libres-LC-LMR)* 43.85%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV-Gs-GE-PP-ND-MdP) 14.47%
Andréa Kotarac (RN-PL) 12.32%
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ) 11.42%
Bruno Bonnell (LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP) 9.82%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF-LFI-E!) 5.57%
Chantal Gomez (LO) 1.56%
Shella Gil (Oth.) 0.65%
Farid Omeir (UDMF) 0.33%
Abstention 67.41%

Wauquiez absolutely dominated and is on track to sail to a very comfortable reelection in the second round, even if the three left-wing lists have merged behind Grébert (EELV). Their combined result, just 31%, still places them over 10 points behind Wauquiez. Bonnell fell flat on his face, placing below the 10% threshold, while the RN's result is very bad, down from 25.5% in 2015. Even though turnout is down a ton from 2015.

Wauquiez won every single department. He absolutely dominated with ridiculous margins in Auvergne, particularly his native stronghold of Haute-Loire, where he won no less than 67.7% (he won 66.1% in Cantal and nearly 55% in Allier). His weakest result was Isère, where he won a bit less than 35% as Grébert won in the green stronghold of Grenoble.

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PCF-PRG)* 26.52%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.19%
Gilles Platret (LR-UDI-DLF-Libres-LC-LMR-MEI) 21.04%
Denis Thuriot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 11.69%
Stéphanie Modde (EELV-GE-CÉ) 10.34%
Bastien Faudot (GRS-LFI-ND-PP-E!-Gs) 4.5%
Claire Rocher (LO) 2.73%
Abstention 65.13%

With an incumbent boost, PS regional president Marie-Guite Dufay - president of Franche-Comté since 2018 and surprise winner of a three-way race in 2015 - is favoured to win reelection, and probably more comfortably than in 2015. Her list has merged uneventfully with the EELV list, which won just over 10%, which combines to over 36% - far ahead of the three other lists qualified. Julien Odoul, the RN's young moron who enjoys making distasteful 'jokes' about farmers' suicide, is down over 8% from the far-right's result in 2015, although he is still in second position ahead of LR.

Dufay is ahead in all the departments of the old Franche-Comté plus the Côte-d'Or (Dijon). Odoul won the Yonne with 30.2%, Gilles Platret, the very right-wing mayor of Chalon-sur-Saône, won his department with 28.7% while Denis Thuriot, the ex-PS LREM mayor of Nevers (Nièvre) won his department with 25.4% - taking over 37% in Nevers.

Bretagne
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF-PRG-MR-CÉ-PLB!)* 20.95%
Isabelle Le Callennec (LR-LC-Libres-LMR) 16.27%
Thierry Burlot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-UDI-TdP-Volt) 15.53%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV-UDB-GE-ND-Gs-BÉ-LRDG) 14.84%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 14.27%
Daniel Cueff (Ecolo) 6.52%
Pierre-Yves Cadalen (LFI) 5.57%
Valérie Hamon (LO) 2.26%
Joannic Martin (PB) 1.55%
David Cabas (DLF) 1.4%
Christophe Daviet (Oth.) 0.49%
Yves Chauvel (EXD) 0.22%
Kamel Elahiar (UDMF) 0.12%
Abstention 64.21%

So Brittany may be one of the more interesting regions to follow in the runoff (after very uneventful elections in 2010 and 2015) as incumbent PS president Loïg Chesnais-Girard - who took over from Jean-Yves Le Drian in 2017 - is the exception to the rule of incumbents overperforming. He won a very weak 21%, an anemic result which likely has much to do with his low name recognition/personal notoriety, particularly in comparison to a dominant figure like Le Drian, his former mentor. It also has to do with some stiff competition from a former ally - and another former Le Drian disciple - Thierry Burlot, who was regional vice president responsible for the environment until just some months ago (until he was fired by Chesnais-Girard upon confirming his macronista list) and won 15.5%, LREM's second-best result in metropolitan France.

Chesnais-Girard announced an alliance (merger) with the independent list led by Daniel Cueff, former mayor of Langouet (Ille-et-Vilaine) famous for his anti-pesticides decrees, which won 6.5%. Cueff had previously been a regional councillor between 2010 and 2015 in Le Drian's majority, part of a small party called Bretagne Écologie founded by Green/EELV dissidents who wanted to ally with Le Drian/PS from the first round in 2010. However, given that Cueff campaigned as an independent opposed to deals with the political establishment, his deal with the PS is decried as a betrayal by some of his allies like Anne Quéméré (a famous sailor) and Olivier Roellinger (Cancale chef). On the other hand, alliances with Burlot - as Le Drian had pleaded for before the elections - and Desmares-Poirrier were rejected (relations between the PS and EELV at the regional level have been bad since 2010), so both of them will maintain their lists in the second, creating a messy five-way runoff -- opening the possibility for a regional council with no one holding an absolute majority, even with the majority bonus, if the winner gets less than 33%. Chesnais-Girard should be the narrow favourite, but the outcome is still quite unpredictable and could be messy.

Chesnais-Girard won all four departments of the region. Burlot did best in the Côtes-d'Armor (17.7%), particularly strong around his political base of Pléguien. Isabelle Le Callenec, LR mayor of Vitré (Ille-et-Vilaine) won nearly 41% in Vitré and won much of eastern Ille-et-Vilaine, historically one of the most conservative regions of western France. Desmares-Poirrier placed first in Rennes.

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS-PCF-PRG-MR)* 24.81%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN-CNIP) 22.24%
Nicolas Forissier   (LR-UDI-LMR) 18.82%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem-LREM-Agir-LC-TdP) 16.65%
Charles Fournier (EELV-LFI-Gs-E!-ND-GE-LRDG) 10.85%
Jérémy Clément (Ecolo) 4.07%
Farida Megdoud   (LO) 2.56%
Abstention 67.26%

Although Bonneau's result is weak as incumbent, with the alliance (merger) with the EELV-LFI list, he's the (narrow) favourite to win reelection in the four-way runoff, particularly as speculation around a possible LR/LREM merger to defeat the left ended nowhere, as LR wanted the macronista list to withdraw rather than merge with them. The region was also macronismo's best region in the country, owing a lot to Fesneau's political base in the Loir-et-Cher (he was mayor of the small town of Marenchoir) as well as Philippe Vigier (ex-UDI deputy for Eure-et-Loir since 2007, and the right's candidate in the region in 2015) leading the list in Eure-et-Loir, where he has a strong personal vote in his constituency. As for the RN, with their numbers down over 8% from 2015, and at just 22%, their hopes of squeaking through in a four-way runoff are dead.

Once again the results show a strong personal vote effect here too: Bonneau won the Loiret, Cher and Indre-et-Loire (in good part thanks to Orléans, Bourges and Tours), while Forissier - LR deputy for the Indre and former mayor of La Châtre - won the Indre. Fesneau won the Loir-et-Cher, while Nikolic won the Eure-et-Loir.

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (FaC)* 29.19%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR-UDI-CCB) 24.86%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC) 13.22%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 8.39%
Jean-Guy Talamoni (CL) 6.9%
Jean-Charles Orsucci (LREM-TdP) 5.92%
François Filoni (RN) 4%
Agnès Simonpietri (EELV-GE-Gs-ND) 3.75%
Michel Stefani (PCF) 3.18%
Jean-Antoine Giacomi   (EXD) 0.59%
Abstention 42.92%

Despite the divisions of the nationalist majority, the nationalist vote remains dominant and Simeoni - again despite the loss of his two prominent allies, Angelini and Talamoni - placed first, beating the right-wing (Bonapartist, yes, that's correct!) mayor of Ajaccio, Laurent Marcangeli. Together, the nationalist vote amounts to 57.7%, even more than in 2017, which was already an historic victory for them. The right, united for the first time in a long time, remains just as weak as in 2015 and 2017. The non-nationalist left, for the second time in a row, will remain excluded from the island's assembly, with their two lists winning less than 4% of the vote each. Meanwhile, Corsican macronismo will be eliminated from the assembly. The other big thing is that Benedetti's radical left-wing separatist Rinnovu/Core in Fronte, with 8.4%, not only qualifies for the runoff (the insular threshold is 7%, not 10%) but also finishes ahead of Talamoni's Corsica Libera, which ended below the 7% threshold.

... and yes, you read that right, Corsica had over 57% turnout. They really do their own thing there: but it isn't surprising - the Corsican Assembly is a more important and relevant institution to the island's political life than the regional councils are in any other region, and Corsican politics is still very much parochial (literally insular) and interest is higher in local/regional matters than national politics.

Angelini and Talamoni have merged their lists, although Talamoni himself won't appear on it, which sets up a four-way runoff in which Simeoni likely remains the narrow favourite. The Corsican majority bonus is only 11 out of 63 seats, less than the 25% bonus elsewhere, meaning that here as well there's a possibility of an assembly without any absolute majority, even though the nationalists - divided in three (with one separatist faction unlikely to ally with the other two) - will retain an absolute majority.

Simeoni won nearly 35% in Haute-Corse (over 40% in Bastia, his stronghold) while Marcangeli won 29.9% in Corse-du-Sud (nearly 40% in Ajaccio) against 22.9% for Simeoni. Local results still reveal the overwhelming importance and influence of local political clans and the 'mayors effect' (mayors or their group appearing on the list of candidates).

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR-UDI-LC-MR-LMR)* 31.15%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN-CNIP) 21.12%
Éliane Romani (EELV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GE-MdP-ND) 14.6%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 10.77%
Aurélie Filippetti   (Gs-LFI-PRG-PP) 8.64%
Florian Philippot   (LP) 6.95%
Martin Meyer (Unser Land) 3.67%
Louise Fève (LO) 2.6%
Adil Tyane (UDMF) 0.49%
Abstention 70.39%

Courtesy of record-high abstention and the far-right taking a hit, Rottner ultimately shouldn't have too much trouble winning reelection. The RN is down 15% from 2015, when it was led by Florian Philippot (who famously left the FN a few years ago). As for Philippot, after the brutal defeat in the EP elections in 2019, his result - nearly 7% on an anti-lockdown/anti-mask/soft anti-vaxx rhetoric, is quite impressive and clearly ate into the RN's electorate, seeing as how Philippot's vote is not really regionally-concentrated (as a RN apparatchik, he famously tried - and failed, hard - to carve himself a personal stronghold in Forbach). On the left, a EELV-PS list clearly beat out a LFI-Gs list led by former PS deputy/former culture minister Aurélie Filippetti. Junior minister Brigitte Klinkert - former right-wing president of the Haut-Rhin departmental council - narrowly qualified for the runoff, with 10.8%. The Alsatian regionalist party Unser Land which, like in 2015, campaigned against the 'Grand Est' megaregion and for Alsace to be a separate region with a special status, won 3.7% regionally and 9.4% in Alsace, slightly less than in 2015.

The runoff will be between the top four lists. Rottner quickly killed speculation of an alliance with LREM and Klinkert has maintained her list after briefly hesitating. Negotiations between Romani and Filippetti failed, so Filippetti's list will not merge with the qualified left-wing list - relations between the two were perhaps soured by Romani having refused to choose hypothetically between Panzergirl and Mélenchon.

Rottner won every department, even traditional far-right hotbeds in Champagne-Ardenne like Haute-Marne. Klinkert did very well in and around her base of Colmar (Haut-Rhin) - in the Haut-Rhin she won around 24.5%, narrowly behind Rottner, and the map shows an interesting north/south divide in the department between the Colmar region and Mulhouse region (Rottner's base). In the concurrent departmental elections, Klinkert's ticket with Colmar mayor Éric Straumann (LR) in Colmar-2 won over 60% but failed to win in the first round because of low turnout.

Guadeloupe
Ary Chalus (GUSR/LREM)* 49.31%
Josette Borel-Lincertin (FGPS) 17.38%
Ronald Selbonne (ANG-UPLG) 9.39%
Max Mathiasin (PPDG/DVG) 5.56%
Sonia Petro (LR-UDI) 3.68%
Maxette Pirbakas (RN) 3.42%
Éric Coriolan (Oth.) 2.88%
Jean-Marie Nomertin (CO/LO) 2.67%
Alain Plaisir (Reg.) 2.54%
Christelle Nanor   (LGCA) 1.41%
Willy William (Oth.) 1.17%
Tony Delannay (DLF) 0.58%
Abstention 69.15%

Incumbent president Ary Chalus - from the local party GUSR, close to LREM and allied with the old local right - came extremely close to winning in the first round, despite being recently indicted for breach of trust, embezzlement and illegal financing of his 2015 campaign. He was held in custody on May 11. His closest rival is the PS president of the departmental council, Josette Borel-Lincertin, also recently indicted in a corruption scandal. The surprise came from the strong performance of regionalist candidate Ronald Selbonne with just under 10%. Deputy Max Mathiasin (caucuses with the MoDem), also recently indicted in a corruption scandal, won 5.56%.

Guyane
Rodolphe Alexandre (GR/centrist)* 43.72%
Gabriel Serville (Péyi G-LFI-Gs) 27.67%
Jean-Paul Fereira (AGEG-PSG-GE-MDES-Walwari) 23.34%
Jessi Americain (DVG) 5.27%
Abstention 65.21%

Incumbent centrist president Rodolphe Alexandre, close to LREM, first elected in 2010, dominated the first round with 43.7% but will face an alliance of the three other (left-wing) lists in the second round. Deputy Gabriel Serville (caucuses with the GDR group) won 27.7%, and Jean-Paul Fereira, backed notably by Christiane Taubira, won 23.3%. Theoretically, the alliance of the three left-wing lists should be enough to win, but I know little.

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Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (DVD/LR-UDI-LC-LMR-MR)* 41.39%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 24.37%
Karima Delli (EELV-LFI-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-LRDG-GE) 18.99%
Laurent Pietraszewski   (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 9.14%
Éric Pecqueur (LO) 3.56%
José Évrard (DLF) 2.04%
Audric Alexandre (PACE-NC-Volt) 0.51%
Abstention 67.16%

In the end, Xavier Bertrand will have no trouble winning reelection and, in the process, deal nasty blows to both Panzergirl and Macron. The first round was expected to be closely fought between him and the far-right, but with low turnout hurting the far-right and favouring entrenched incumbents, he ended up 17 points ahead of RN deputy Sébastien Chenu (Nord-19th). Whereas in 2015, Panzergirl herself had won 40.6% in the first round, the RN's vote fell by over 16% to just 24.4%. Of course Panzergirl was a much stronger candidate and Chenu a much weaker candidate (internally disliked, and accused days ago in Libé of charging up to €20,000 for candidates to be guaranteed a spot on his list), but it is still an extremely bad result for the far-right in one of their two most famous strongholds (the other being PACA). The RN likely suffered from the major drop in turnout, which was even steeper in the region than elsewhere: in the Pas-de-Calais, turnout fell from 57% in 2015 to just 37%.

The left was, for once, smart enough to unite, but that wasn't anywhere near enough to win even a decent result: Karima Delli's result is nearly 10% lower than the left's combined result in 2015, split over 3 lists (PS, PCF and EELV-PG) at the time -- all this in a region with a long and famous left-wing history. Her result also severely undeperformed the left's performance in the concurrent departmental elections in a department like the Pas-de-Calais: 45.9% against only 16.7% for her. She undoubtedly suffered from the race being perceived as being a match between Bertrand and the RN, but some will contend - perhaps with reason - that it also owes a bit to her being a poor fit for the region (an 'urban green' - albeit from Roubaix, not really a hipster bobo haven).

As for macronismo, whatever Macron's genius strategy was here to weaken or compromise his future 2022 rival, it failed badly - the macronista list was eliminated outright, winning less than 10%, forcing it to immediately announce its support for Bertrand to defeat the far-right. In some towns in the Pas-de-Calais mining basin, LO was even ahead of LREM! Macron himself votes in this region (in the seaside resort town of Le Touquet, Pas-de-Calais), so he may end up voting for Bertrand himself on Sunday!

Bertrand won every department in the region, his strongest being 48.8% in the Aisne, where he is from (in Saint-Quentin, his stronghold, he got nearly 60%), his weakest being 38.9% in the Nord. Chenu significantly underperformed everywhere, winning just 26.4% in the Pas-de-Calais and 25.9% in the Aisne, which were the only two departments Panzergirl won in the runoff in 2017. Delli's best department was the Nord with 22.5%, and her only significant base anywhere was Lille, Roubaix and Villeneuve-d'Ascq.

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres-LR-UDI-MR)* 35.94%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 13.12%
Julien Bayou (EELV-Gs-GE-CE-MdP-ND) 12.95%
Audrey Pulvar (PS-PRG-PP-GRS) 11.07%
Clémentine Autain (E!-LFI-PCF) 10.24%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Agir-MoDem-TdP) 11.76%
Victor Pailhac (REV-MHAN) 1.86%
Nathalie Arthaud (LO) 1.55%
Éric Berlingen (UDMF) 0.66%
Lionel Brot (Oth.) 0.6%
Fabiola Conti (Volt) 0.26%
Abstention 69.15%

Incumbent president Valérie Pécresse remains well on track to win reelection, although it may be slightly closer than expected. The left, split between three lists, won 34.3%, which is down from 39.9% in the first round in 2015, also split between three lists. In the second round, the left went on to win 42.2% against 43.8% for Pécresse. Julien Bayou won the race on the left, in a blow to Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo who had been supporting former journalist Audrey Pulvar (a Paris city councillor since 2020), and will lead a united left-wing list from the merger of the three lists. The result is a major disappointment for macronismo, in a region where it usually quite strong, especially given that it had sent a number of heavyweights (although 'media-darling heavyweights' with little political base or following of their own...) to the fight. The result is also pretty poor for the RN (which was likely expecting more from Panzergirl's latest phony young 'star', Jordan Bardella), although actually a bit up from Panzergirl's 12.6% in the region in 2017 (but down from 18.4% in 2015).

As mentioned, the three left-wing lists have merged and their combined total of 34% takes them quite close to Pécresse's 35.9%, meaning that the outcome could be closer than might have been expected before the first round, although I would personally still bet on Pécresse's reelection by a narrow margin. The RN and LREM will likely see their vote squeezed in what will be primarily a right/left matchup.

Pécresse, given her lead, obviously topped the poll in every department. Her strongest result was the Yvelines (43.3%) followed by the Hauts-de-Seine (42.5%), her weakest was the leftist Seine-Saint-Denis (27.6%), which also saw some of the lowest turnout anywhere in the country (24.2%), even lower in some low-income banlieues like Clichy-sous-Bois (12%). In Paris, Pécresse won 32.9% against 18% for Bayou, 14.1% for Saint-Martin and only 12.9% for Pulvar. Bayou was the top left-wing candidate in Paris, Hauts-de-Seine, Yvelines and Essonne. Autain was the top left-wing candidate in Seine-Saint-Denis (19.9%) and Val-de-Marne (13.1%), Pulvar led the left only in Seine-et-Marne (with less than 10%) and Val-d'Oise (11.2%).

La Réunion
Didier Robert (OR/DVD-LR-MR)* 31.1%
Huguette Bello (PLR-LFI) 20.74%
Ericka Bareigts (PS-PCR-Gs) 18.48%
Vanessa Miranville (CREA/DVG) 9.91%
Patrick Lebreton (DVG) 7.78%
Olivier Hoarau (DVG) 4.24%
Philippe Cadet (DVD) 2.64%
Jean-Pierre Marchau (EELV) 2%
Joseph Rivière (RN) 1.74%
Jean-Yves Payet   (LO) 1.14%
Corinne de Flore (DVD) 0.23%
Abstention 63.56%

Incumbent president Didier Robert (DVD), recently convicted in May to three years political ineligiblity and a suspended 15 months prison sentence for conflict of interests and abuse of public assets, faces a challenging reelection for a third term in the second round despite coming out over 10 points ahead of the divided left. On the left, the winner is Huguette Bello, former deputy (1997-2020) and mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014, since 2020), who won 20.7%. On the other hand, a notable loser is Ericka Bareigts, PS mayor of Saint-Denis since 2020 (having defeated Didier Robert) and former overseas minister (2016-2017), who won 18.5% and was narrowly beaten (by just a few votes) by Robert in Saint-Denis. Patrick Lebreton, DVG (ex-PS) mayor of Saint-Joseph, won 7.8%. Vanessa Miranville, DVG (ex-EELV) mayor of La Possession since 2014, won 9.9%, falling just short of the 10% threshold. Olivier Hoarau, DVG (ex-PLR) mayor of Le Port and Bello's former suppléant, won 4.2%.

Bello, Bareigts and Lebreton have merged their list, which has also received the endorsement of Hoarau, although Miranville refused to merge her list with the rest of the left. The (almost) united left adds up to over 47%, theoretically far ahead of the incumbent, but again overseas political dynamics and intrigues can be difficult to understand. In 2015, for example, Bello led a left/MoDem alliance in the runoff which theoretically ahead over 51% of the vote from the first round, but lost to Robert in the runoff 52.7% to 47.3%.

Martinique
Serge Letchimy (PPM-BPM-MPF/DVG) 31.66%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-Palima)* 25.8%
Jean-Philippe Nilor (Péyi A-RDM-LFI) 12.01%
Catherine Conconne (DVG) 10.63%
Yan Monplaisir (LR) 4.68%
Philippe Jock (DVC) 3.92%
Béatrice Bellay (PS) 3.56%
Olivier Bérisson (DVG) 2.23%
Max Orville (MoDem) 1.44%
Ralph Monplaisir (LREM) 1.09%
Guy Ferdinand (Oth.) 1.06%
Marcel Sellaye (GRS) 0.69%
Philippe Petit (UDI) 0.64%
Gabriel Jean-Marie (CO/LO) 0.59%
Abstention 67.55%

The election remained dominated by two traditional figures of Martinican politics: Serge Letchimy, leader of Aimé Césaire's party, the PPM, deputy (since 2007), former regional president (2010-2015) and former mayor of Fort-de-France; and incumbent president Alfred Marie-Jeanne of the nationalist MIM, regional president (1998-2010, since 2015) and former deputy (1997-2017). Letchimy defeated Marie-Jeanne in 2010, but was in turn defeated by Marie-Jeanne - allied with the right - in 2015. The incumbent was indicted in a corruption scandal in 2019.

Marie-Jeanne trailed his predecessor in the first round, weakened by notable divisions within his majority. Jean-Philippe Nilor, ex-MIM deputy supported by the RDM of retiring regional assembly president Claude Lise, won 12%. Senator Catherine Conconne, a PPM dissident, won 10.6%. All qualified lists have maintained their lists for the runoff, so there will be a four-way runoff.

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LC-LR-LMR-Libres)* 36.86%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 19.86%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS-EELV-Gs-GE-CE-PP-ND) 18.37%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir) 11.07%
Sébastien Jumel (PCF-LFI-PRG) 9.64%
Pascal Le Manach (LO) 3.14%
Stéphanie Kerbarh (LREM diss.) 1.06%
Abstention 67.01%

Incumbent regional president Hervé Morin is on track to win reelection quite comfortably. He won 36.9%, a result equivalent to his 2015 runoff result. On the other hand, the results are bad for both the left and the far-right. The left, divided between a PS-EELV list and a PCF-LFI list (led by Sébastien Jumel, PCF deputy for Seine-Maritime-6th and former mayor of Dieppe), won only 28%, compared to 36.7% in 2015. The far-right, led like in 2015 by MEP Nicolas Bay, fell from 27.7% to 19.9%. The results are also mediocre for macronismo, although it sent relatively few heavyweights to the field here, with 11.1%.

For the runoff, the PS-EELV list failed to reach a merger deal with Jumel's eliminated list. The runoff will be between the top four lists, with a clear advantage to Morin.

Hervé Morin won all departments, winning over 40% of the votes in the former departments of Basse-Normandie and 37.9% in his native Eure. His weakest department was Seine-Maritime, where he won only 29.2%. Boulanger won Rouen, while Jumel did well in and around Dieppe, in his constituency, as well in Rouen and Le Havre's historically Communist industrial hinterland.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS-PRG-PCF-PP)* 28.84%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 18.2%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR) 13.71%
Nicolas Florian (LR-LC) 12.48%
Nicolas Thierry (EELV-Gs-GE-CE) 12.09%
Eddie Puyjalon (LMR-Résistons !) 7.29%
Clémence Guetté (LFI-NPA) 5.67%
Guillaume Perchet (LO) 1.74%
Abstention 64.09%

Alain Rousset, who has been president of Aquitaine since 1998 (and the new megaregion since 2015), should be reelected but the failure to reach a merger deal with EELV (with whom Rousset has had longstanding conflicts over high-speed rail and highways, although they did merge in both 2010 and 2015) had forced a five-way runoff which, like in Brittany, could potentially result in a scenario where no-one has an absolute majority in the regional council (provided that the winner gets less than 33% in the runoff). Overall, the left's result is solid (nearly 41%, more than in 2015).

The results are bad especially for the right - led by the former LR mayor of Bordeaux (Juppé's hand-picked successor in 2019, defeated by the Greens in 2020) - which won just 12.5%. The results are mediocre for the far-right, although it is down 'only' 5% from 2015 and remains strong in the traditional far-right areas; and not particularly great for macronismo either, although it is comfortably over the 10% threshold and ahead of LR. On the other hand, there is a real surprise performance from Eddie Puyjalon, incumbent regional councillor and leader of the Rurality Movement (LMR, successor of the hunters' party CPNT), supported by everyone's favourite meme candidate, Jean Lassalle. Puyjalon ate into the right and far-right's rural vote in what was historically one of CPNT's main strongholds.

Rousset is ahead in every department, his best result (33%) coming from Dordogne. Darrieussecq is second in her departments of the Landes (22.2%) and a close second to Rousset in Mont-de-Marsan, where she was mayor for 9 years until 2017. However, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, stronghold of MoDem boss François Bayrou (now mayor of Pau), she got 13.8% (and only 16.8% in Pau). The real winner in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques was Puyjalon, thanks to Lassalle, who got 13.6% and won several rural communes in Lassalle's constituency.

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS-PCF-PRG-PP)* 39.57%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 22.61%
Aurélien Pradié (LR-UDI-LC-LMR) 12.19%
Antoine Maurice (EELV-Gs-GE-CE-MEI-POC) 8.84%
Vincent Terrail-Novès (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP-MR) 8.78%
Myriam Martin (LFI-NPA-E!) 5.06%
Malena Adrada (LO) 1.77%
Jean-Luc Davezac (OPN) 0.76%
Anthony Le Boursicaud (Oth.) 0.41%
Abstention 62.76%

If there's one very impressive incumbent performance this election, it's certainly Carole Delga - incumbent PS president since 2015 - who won nearly 40% in the first round, far ahead of expectations. On the other hand, the RN did quite poorly - in a region where it has several strongholds - down 9% from 2015. The right, which has been struggling for years (even pre-macronismo) here because of the far-right, did very poorly as well, with just 12.2% for Lot deputy Aurélien Pradié. It was also LREM's worst region in metropolitan France, with just 8.8% of the vote for its candidate, the mayor of Balma (suburban Toulouse). EELV's performance was also disappointing, actually weaker than in 2015 (when it was over 10%, but allied with the FG at the time).

Delga will be easily reelected by a very comfortable margin in the runoff. There was no merger with the EELV or LFI-NPA lists here, so EELV will find itself eliminated from the regional council. Terrail-Novès, eliminated, has endorsed Delga.

Delga won every single department except for the Lot, where Pradié won nearly 35% and did very well in his constituency (western Lot), despite that region's leftist history. On the other hand, Delga won 49.2% in Lozère, which is historically a quite conservative department (not in its entirety but much of it). Garraud won 33.3% in Pyrénées-Orientales, and won in Perpignan, 28.4% in Hérault and 31.8% in the Gard.

Pays de la Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR-UDI)* 34.3%
Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-LFI-Gs-GE) 18.7%
Guillaume Garot (PS-PCF-PRG-GRS) 16.32%
Hervé Juvin (RN-PL) 12.54%
François de Rugy (LREM-MoDem-MR) 11.97%
Cécile Bayle de Jessé (DLF-CNIP) 2.96%
Eddy Le Beller (LO) 2.63%
Linda Rigaudeau (Oth.) 0.6%
Abstention 69.27%

Incumbent LR president Christelle Morançais had a good first round, winning 34%, more than expected from the polls, but still faces a very close runoff against a united left. On the left, ex-LREM deputy Matthieu Orphelin, backed by EELV and LFI, edged out Mayenne deputy Guillaume Garot (PS) by 2.4%. Orphelin and Garot very quickly announced their alliance, and together they weighed 35% in the first round, barely ahead of the right-wing incumbent - making the runoff still a real tossup. She'll try to depict Orphelin as being too far-left and radical, often making a point that his list is supported by Mélenchon. Both the far-right and macronismo did poorly. Hervé Juvin, a RN-adjacent MEP (actually he has his own micro-satellite party, the 'Localist Party'), won only 12.5%, one of the lowest results for the RN in metropolitan France, and macronista François 'I like lobster dinners' de Rugy just 12%, less than expected.

Morançais won every department except for the Mayenne, which had a strong favourite son vote for Garot, who carried the department (again not a particularly leftist one historically, by a longshot) with 36%, including up to 47% in Laval, where he was mayor. Morançais won 40% in conservative Vendée, stronghold of her predecessor Bruno Retailleau, and 40.1% in the Sarthe, where she's from. Orphelin finished ahead of Garot everywhere outside Mayenne, doing best in Maine-et-Loire (22.6%), winning in Angers, and in Loire-Atlantique (22.7%), winning in Nantes.

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Thierry Mariani (RN) 36.38%
Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM-UDI-MoDem-LC-MR-Libres-Agir)* 31.91%
Jean-Laurent Félizia (EELV-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-GRS-MdP) 16.89%
Jean-Marc Governatori (CE) 5.28%
Isabelle Bonnet (LO) 2.76%
Noël Chuisano (DLF) 2.7%
Hervé Guerrera (POC-E!-PNO) 2.18%
Valérie Laupies (LdS) 1.66%
Mikael Vincenzi (Oth.) 0.25%
Abstention 66.28%

Renaud Muselier was the only incumbent president in metropolitan France not to finish first. He finished about 4.5% behind Thierry Mariani, the RN's candidate. Mariani won 36.4% against 31.9% for Muselier, the incumbent, which is something of an underperformance for the RN compared both to pre-election polling and 2015, when the FN - at the time led by Panzermiss - won 40.6% in the first round, miles ahead of the right's 26.5%, then led by Christian Estrosi (the mayor of Nice, today one of Muselier's main allies and the top candidate in Alpes-Maritimes). The left, united behind Jean-Laurent Félizia, did poorly - 16.9% is less than the combined result of 23.1% for the PS and EELV in 2015, which was already a very poor result for the left. Once again, the left is in a very, very bad state in PACA. Again, as with Delli, some might contend - perhaps with reason - that Félizia, a little-known green, was a poor candidate, but this begs the question - who else should it have been?

After the Muselier LR-LREM alliance drama before the first round, after the first round, we had another (shorter) drama: Félizia's initial refusal to withdraw to block the RN, until he changed his mind under intense (Parisian) pressure. The night of the first round, Félizia was adamant: he would not withdraw, arguing that Muselier was now favoured to win in a three-way runoff and that the benefit of regaining left-wing representation in the regional council outweighed the risks of a RN victory. In 2015, the left had withdrawn in PACA to defeat Panzermiss, leaving it unrepresented in the regional council. Félizia's decision seems to have been supported by his fellow candidates on his lists, although some like former Marseille mayor (now first deputy mayor) Michèle Rubirola, called on him to withdraw. It is similar to what happened in Grand Est in 2015: Jean-Pierre Masseret, third in the first round, had refused to withdraw to defeat Philippot (FN) and was disendorsed by the PS, but held firm until the end. In the end, the right defeated Philippot easily, by over 10 points, as a result of a major uptick in turnout and some left-wingers voting for the right (Masseret won essentially the same numbers, slightly lower, than in the first round). However, as early as Sunday night, the national leadership of EELV as well as the PS and PCF called on Félizia to withdraw, and on Monday morning EELV threatened to exclude him from the party if he didn't withdraw. Finally, on Monday afternoon, buckling under intense pressure, he changed his mind and withdrew, saying that he would vote Muselier to defeat Mariani. Félizia's decision has disappointed some of his supporters and fellow candidates. As a result, the left will once again be shut out of the regional council - now for two terms in a row, or 12 years. Muselier in exchange has promised a 'mechanism' to allow the left to propose motions or ideas - Bertrand had done the same six years ago in Hauts-de-France, and yeah, shockingly, nothing came of that...

So PACA faces the same kind of runoff as 6 years ago. Muselier campaigns on 'defeating the far-right' and warning of the dangers of a RN victory for the region, while Mariani campaigns against the 'Muselier-Macron alliance' (and can now point to the support of the left in a bid to attract even more LR defectors). Six years ago, the far-right was over 14% ahead of the right, whereas today it is just 4.5% ahead. Six years ago, Panzermiss went on to lose by a bit under 10% in the second round, as the left voted for Estrosi in large numbers and turnout increased by 9%. Will we see a similar outcome next Sunday? While Muselier is probably narrowly favoured to win now, it could be closer than in 2015. An Ifop poll has him leading just 51-49, predicting similarly low turnout and mediocre/bad transfers from the left.

Mariani won every department except for the Hautes-Alpes and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, where Muselier came first. Mariani's best results were in the Vaucluse (40.5%) and Var (40.3%). Mariani narrowly placed first in Marseille with 31.9% against 30.7% for Muselier, with Félizia winning 25%.

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Why is Jean-Marie's spawn called "Panzergirl"?  It's hilarious but I'm not sure I get it.

The term was originally coined by 'big bad fab', an excellent French poster who unfortunately is no longer active (probably one of this forum's biggest losses), probably over ten years ago, and has now become something of a forum term, at least for those who have been here for years. I've since expanded it to Panzermiss (MMLP) and Panzerdaddy (JMLP).

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Apparently, Euskal Herria Bai (Bildu) got second place in the French Basque Country with 26% of the vote (for the departmental elections). Obviously helped by abstention but still impressive.

Yes, EH Bai ran candidates in all the cantons of the French Basque Country (as in 2015) and around ~24.7%, not only up from what I've calculated they got in 2015 (16.1%) but also about 3,000 raw votes more than in 2015, which is quite impressive considering low turnout.

They had one incumbent binôme in Nive-Adour - one of them, Alain Iriart, mayor of Saint-Pierre-d'Irube, who didn't seek reelection, and his colleague sought reelection as an independent. The EH Bai ticket won 27% there, ahead of the one incumbent's ticket (18.8%) but behind the 'departmental majority' (right/centre) which won 40%, so they might be able to hold it in the runoff. They're also in the runoff in the cantons of Baïgura et Mondarrain (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the incumbents who won over 53% already), Hendaye-Côte Basque-Sud (in first with 29%, ahead of the PS incumbent), Montagne Basque (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the incumbents who won 52% already), Pays de Bidache, Amikuze et Ostibarre (in second, but the incumbents - including the departmental council president - already won over 52%), Saint-Jean-de-Luz (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the right who won 48%) and Ustaritz-Vallées de Nive et Nivelle (in second, behind the right which got 42%). So if they're lucky they could increase their presence from 2 to 4+ seats.

EH Bai is a left-wing abertzale movement. Their main regionalist demand is the transformation of the Urban community of the Basque Country - an intercommunal structure created in 2017 covering the entirety of the French Basque Country (indeed the first formal institutional structure in France covering all of the Basque Country) - into a stronger territorial collectivity which would replace the department (i.e. basically create a separate Basque department, a longstanding demand of the nationalist movement [and promised by Mitterrand in 1981]). Their actual campaigns, given the limited powers of the departmental council to impact their political aims, focused on issues like the environment, housing and opposition to high-speed rail in the region. In some cantons they were the sole left-wing alternative and were likely supported by the likes of the PS and EELV.

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNB) is also active on the French side, but they didn't run their own candidates this year and seem to have supported the right in Baïgura et Mondarrain, and a centrist ticket in Biarritz.

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Panzergirl may be right: the Muslims are slowly taking over. More seriously, the Union des démocrates musulmans français (UDMF), the political party which likely gets the greatest amount of attention disproportionate to its actual strength, ran lists in four regions (AURA, Grand Est, IDF, Bzh) and got, at most, 0.66% in IDF. The UDMF claims to be a left-wing party defending Muslim interests and fighting Islamophobia, although its critics - and, shockingly, there are a lot - consider it to be 'communautariste' or Islamist.

Anyway in Grand Est, the UDMF actually came first in one commune and a strong second in another, both in Moselle!

On a turnout of 25.5%, the UDMF won Farébersviller (Moselle) with 27.28% against 14.62% for the RN, 13.58% for the right, 10.18% for EELV-PS and 10.05% for Philippot. Farébersviller has a population of around 5,500. In Behren-lès-Forbach, on 22.6% turnout, the UDMF was second with 21.23%, against 22.1% for the right, 17% for the RN and 10.6% for Philippot. Behren-lès-Forbach has a population of around 6,600.

Both are located in the Moselle coal mining basin, and both towns were built in the 1950s as company towns (built by the Houillères du Bassin de Lorraine) to house workers in nearby coal mines - initially a lot of Italian immigrants, today the (declining) population is predominantly North African (around 30% of the population are immigrants - foreign citizens or naturalized citizens born abroad). The population of both communes have been declining ever since the 1960s - Behren-lès-Forbach's population was 12,500 in 1968, while Farébersviller's population was 8,400 in 1962. Both communes are very poor - the poverty rate is nearly 50%, and in both places most of the population lives in low-income cités.

According to precinct maps here, the UDMF list also won four precincts in Strasbourg, amidst very low turnout, obviously in low-income immigrant areas like Elsau. I should try to look at precinct results in places like Trappes and Mantes-la-Jolie to see if they had any particularly strong results there.

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To complement Sir John Johns' awesome map of PACA, here is a map of the precinct results in Marseille:



I don't feel like writing much now so I'll just say that the left's support is heavily downtown-centric and much weaker than it should have been in the north, in large part because of how catastrophically low turnout was in the cités (and, of the 10-15% who voted there, the right did quite well). A similar thing happened in the 2020 municipal elections.

While the right did best in its traditional upper-class bourgeois strongholds in the south, Mariani did much better than Panzergirl in those precincts, which shows that Mariani attracted a lot of right-wing defectors in the right's traditional strongholds.

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Time for a second round of proper analysis of the results (Part 1).

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-Libres-LC-LMR)* 55.18%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-Gs-GE-PP-ND-MdP-PRG-GRS-CÉ-E!) 33.65%
Andréa Kotarac (RN-PL) 11.17%
Abstention 66.63%

Wauquiez was unsurprisingly reelected in a landslide - winning by over 375,000 votes and 20 points. The left was able to get roughly the sum of its three lists (which merged) and not much more - Grébert won 586k votes, not a lot more than the 539k votes the three lists won separately a week ago (she won about 2.2% more in percentage terms). In sum, this is a very bad result for the left. On the other hand, the far-right - which did terribly in the first round already - fell back by over 1% and lost over 16,000 votes. Some of that likely benefited Wauquiez, who increased his vote total by nearly 210k votes. It is also quite reasonable to assume that much of the macronista vote from last week (some 168k votes) - which was eliminated from the runoff - went to Wauquiez in far greater numbers than to the left. Turnout increased only minimally (+0.5% valid votes).

As in the first round Wauquiez won by absolutely ridiculous margins in old Auvergne, particularly his native stronghold of Haute-Loire (72.7%) and conservative Cantal (72.7%). He also won 58.5% in the Puy-de-Dôme and 63.8% in the Allier - which means that the Allier, once the posterchild for rural communism, voted to the right of traditionally conservative Haute-Savoie (55.7%) and the Ain (55.5%). Wauquiez fell below 50% only in the Isère (47.5% against 40.1% for the left, which got over 62% in lefty/greenie Grenoble), and won just over 50% in the Lyon metropolis (though he lost Lyon proper, as well as suburban Villeurbanne and the old red belt suburbs of Vaulx-en-Velin and Vénissieux. I would imagine that Wauquiez's clientelist machine and network of small town mayors probably is much stronger in rural areas...

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PCF-PRG-EELV-GE-CÉ)* 42.2%
Gilles Platret (LR-UDI-DLF-Libres-LC-LMR-MEI) 24.23%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.78%
Denis Thuriot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 9.79%
Abstention 63.46%

After squeaking in by just a hair in 2015, this year PS regional president Marie-Guite Dufay was very comfortably reeelected. With nearly 290k votes, she won by 18% and over 123,000 votes over her closest opponent, Gilles Platret (LR). Her vote is nearly 20,000 votes higher than the combined total of the left in the first round (270k) - she merged with the EELV list (10.3%) but the LFI-et al. list (4.5%) couldn't merge. Platret won about 28,800 more votes than a week ago, while Odoul (RN moron dude) won an extra 11,700 votes. The macronista candidate, a distant fourth a week ago with 11.7%, saw himself squeezed out by the other candidates and lost about 9,200 votes. In the Nièvre, his stronghold (he is mayor of Nevers), Thuriot fell from 25.4% to 22.6% while Dufay surged from 23.2% to 40.4% in this left-wing stronghold. My overall impression here is that increased turnout (+1.5% valid votes) may have slightly benefited the right/far-right, while Dufay maximized the left's potential and squeezed some macronista votes.

Dufay won all departments. As noted, she surged ahead in the Nièvre, while in Platret's department of Saône-et-Loire she won with 39.8% against 32.1% for Platret. She also won in the Yonne, with 38.3% against 31% for Odoul, who come out in first last week.

Bretagne
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF-PRG-MR-CÉ-PLB!)* 29.84%
Isabelle Le Callennec (LR-LC-Libres-LMR) 21.98%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV-UDB-GE-ND-Gs-BÉ-LRDG) 20.22%
Thierry Burlot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-UDI-TdP-Volt) 14.72%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 13.22%
Abstention 63.38%

Loïg Chesnais-Girard, PS incumbent since 2017, was reelected in a five-way runoff -- but for the first time since the 2003 changes in the electoral system for the regional elections (i.e. two-round voting with a 25% majority bonus), the winner here fell short of an absolute majority in the regional council - Chesnais-Girard won 40 out of the 83 seats, two short of an absolute majority (as I predicted could happen), meaning that he will need to make a deal with either LREM or the Greens. One would imagine that his former mentor, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will pressure him to ally with macronismo, although the more natural ally from the left's perspective would be EELV, although there is longstanding bad blood between the PS and EELV in this region. In any case, he will be reelected as any kind of opposition alliance is impossible to imagine.

Chesnais-Girard won 82,500 more votes than last week. He had merged his list with that of independent environmentalist Daniel Cueff, who won 55,500 votes, although given how many of Cueff's allies and candidates opposed this alliance as a betrayal of their values, it is quite likely that transfers were imperfect. The right (Le Callenec) won about 53,500 more votes. EELV did very well - from 14.8% and fourth last week, they went up to 20.2% and a strong third, gaining nearly 50.5k votes. It is possible she gained a lot of votes from LFI (47,000 votes last week, 5.6%, didn't merge). On the other hand, Burlot (LREM) was clearly squeezed by the others as he lost over 3,000 votes; as was the far-right, which lost nearly 6,000 votes. Turnout was up by about 23,000 more valid votes.

Notably with Burlot's poor results and his low placement on his own list in the Côtes-d'Armor (5th place), he didn't win a seat, and neither did the LREM president of the National Assembly Richard Ferrand (3rd in the Finistère list, Ferrand was seen as the main backer behind Burlot's candidacy).

Chesnais-Girard won all four departments of the region again, with numbers ranging from 28.1% in Ille-et-Vilaine to 32% in Finistère. Desmares-Poirrier won 23.6% and second place in Ille-et-Vilaine thanks to her victory in Rennes with over 36%. 

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS-PCF-PRG-MR)* 39.15%
Nicolas Forissier (LR-UDI-LMR) 22.61%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN-CNIP) 22.24%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem-LREM-Agir-LC-TdP) 16%
Abstention 66.87%

PS incumbent François Bonneau won by 16.5% and a majority of over 95,300 votes. He won 22,800 more votes (or 3.5% more) than the combined total of the PS and EELV-LFI lists in the first round (which merged). In the first round, a 'DVG'/ecolo list led by a former gilet jaune guy and a regional vice-president won 4.1% (23,100 votes). The RN won exactly the same percentage share as last week, just about 1,700 extra votes, while the right gained about 23,200 votes (in the absence of vote reserves from the first round). This remains macronismo's best result, although Fesneau found himself squeezed and lost over 2,400 votes (-0.65% in vote share). Turnout increased minimally with just 7,600 more valid votes.

Bonneau won every department. In the Indre, Forissier's department, he won 36.5% against 33.6% for the LR deputy. In Fesneau's Loir-et-Cher, the macronista candidate won a distant second with 22.9% (down 1 point from last week) while Bonneau got 35.5%. Bonneau's best results were Indre-et-Loire (44%, over 51% in Tours) and Loiret (41.4%, 48% in Orléans).

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (FaC)* 40.64%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR-UDI-CCB) 32.02%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC-CL) 15.07%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 12.26%
Abstention 41.09%

Incumbent president of the executive council Gilles Simeoni was reelected with 40.6%, securing the absolute majority in the Assembly by just one seat (32 out of 63). It's a big victory for Simeoni, despite the loss of his two prominent allies from the last 6 years, Angelini and Talamoni. In the runoff, the nationalist vote - split between three lists - was 68%, up from 57.7% in the first round - so the nationalist camp, though divided, is stronger than ever (the right is the only opposition to it, the left is dead). Simeoni gained another 16,300 votes from last week, despite not having any new allies. Angelini's merger with Talamoni's separatist Corsica Libera was quite unsuccessful and the results were a major disappointment for the mayor of Porto-Vecchio - he won just 20,600 votes, significantly less than the combined total of his and Talamoni's lists last week (27,000). It is likely that many Corsica Libera voters preferred the radical, left-wing and anti-establishment Paul-Félix Benedetti, who gained an additional 5,480 votes from the first round and won a strong 12.3%.

The right's Laurent Marcangeli won 32%, up from 25% last week, gaining 10.3k more votes. It is likely some of that came from the eliminated lists - the RN (5.3k), macronismo (7.9k), perhaps even a few from EELV (5k) and the PCF (4.2k). Turnout remained higher than anywhere else, even 1% higher.

Simeoni won Haute-Corse (47%) and Marcangeli won Corse-du-Sud (37.5%), home to their respective strongholds of Bastia and Ajaccio.

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR-UDI-LC-MR-LMR)* 40.30%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN-CNIP) 26.30%
Éliane Romani (EELV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GE-MdP-ND) 21.22%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 12.17%
Abstention 69.76%

Jean Rottner won very easily, with a majority of 14% and over 154,600 votes on the far-right. Rottner gained nearly 10% or 109.2k votes since last week, an impressive gain. This is the only region besides unusual PACA where the RN did make notable gains from one round to another - up 5.2% and 62.8k votes - although this is due in good part to Florian Philippot having won 7% (nearly 75,000) votes in the first round and many, though evidently far from all, of his votes transferring to the far-right (I assume a few may have voted for Rottner and a bunch didn't vote, if he mobilized anti-vaxx and anti-mask loonies). The results are very bad for the left - the lack of a merger between the two lists clearly hurt, as Romani's terrible 21.2% is 2% less and over 16,000 votes fewer than the combined total of Romani and Filippetti's lists in the first round. Klinkert didn't get squeezed - despite being fourth - and even gained 18,200 votes (+1.4%). Turnout remained very low and didn't increase by much - just 26,200 more valid votes were cast than last week.

Rottner won every department. His weakest was Meurthe-et-Moselle (34.4%), where Romani was strongest (30.9%), and Haut-Rhin (35.4%), where Klinkert once again did best in her home base around Colmar (24.3% in the department). On the other hand he won over 50% in Ardennes, and over 45% in the Vosges and the Marne.

Guadeloupe
Ary Chalus (GUSR/LREM)* 72.43%
Josette Borel-Lincertin (FGPS) 27.57%
Abstention 63.12%

Incumbent president Ary Chalus (GUSR/centre close to LREM) had already won 49.3% last week so his victory was a mere formality. He won with 72.4%, with an additional 32,300 votes. His opponent, the PS president of the departmental council, Josette Borel-Lincertin, on the other was trounced and suffered a double defeat - she also lost her own seat in Les Abymes in the departmental council. She won 13.5k more votes than last week, and increased her vote share by about 10%. Her defeat is also a defeat for her ally, former regional president (and overseas minister under Flanby) Victorin Lurel, who was defeated by Chalus in 2015. It also seems as if Chalus' allies have flipped the departmental council. Turnout increased by 6%.

Guyane
Gabriel Serville (Péyi G-LFI-Gs-AGEG-PSG-GE-MDES-Walwari) 54.83%
Rodolphe Alexandre (GR/centrist)* 45.17%
Abstention 53.22%

Incumbent centrist president Rodolphe Alexandre was defeated by a united left after two terms in power. Alexandre had won 43.7% last week but the three other lists, all leftist, merged to defeat him and their votes comfortably added up. They won 25,340 votes - 6,000 more than the sum of the three lists a week ago - and defeated Alexandre by 4,466 votes. The incumbent did win 5.8k more votes than last week, as turnout increased significantly by 12%, with over 11,800 more valid votes (quite impressive as Guiana is still facing a very bad COVID surge like the rest of South America). Serville dominated in the Cayenne metropolitan area, winning 64.4% in Cayenne, 59.5% in Matoury and 61.5% in Remire-Montjoly.

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Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (DVD/LR-UDI-LC-LMR-MR)* 52.37%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 25.64%
Karima Delli (EELV-LFI-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-LRDG-GE) 21.98%
Abstention 66.82%

Unsurprisingly after the first round results, Xavier Bertrand was reelected in a landslide (a 26.7% majority, or 361.6k vote margin), setting himself up nicely for his presidential candidacy next year. This result was kind of baked in given the first round (particularly the RN's piss-poor performance in Panzergirl's backyard) so my conclusions from there still hold: this is a very poor result for both the RN and the left. Macronismo was eliminated entirely last week...

Bertrand gained 157,450 votes from last week, or 11%. Macronismo had won 121,400 votes or 9.1%, and its candidate, Laurent Pietraszewski had called on his voters to support Bertrand in the runoff. It is likely that the bulk of them followed that call and voted Bertrand, who also probably benefited from marginally higher turnout (about 22,000 more valid votes, turnout up from 32.8% to 33.2%) Chenu won just a tiny bit more than last week (+1.2% or 22,700 extra votes) - he likely largely gained from those who had voted for DLF's José Évrard (an ex-FN deputy for the Pas-de-Calais), who got 2% and 27,200 votes, but got very little else. Delli won 19% last week and 22% on Sunday, a minor gain of nearly 45,000 votes. LO (the Trot weirdos/benign cult) won a pretty decent 3.6% and 47,200 votes last week, and it is likely that some, though far from all, of that vote went to Delli on Sunday.

Bertrand won every department in the region, his best begain, again, Aisne (57.2%) followed by the Somme (55.1%), his weakest being the Nord with just above 50%. Chenu did best in the Pas-de-Calais with 28.4%, while Delli did best in the Nord with 25.7% -- yet, among major cities there, she only won in Lille, even losing to Bertrand in Roubaix and Villeneuve-d'Ascq.

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres-LR-UDI-MR)* 45.92%
Julien Bayou (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-E!-PRG-Gs-GE-CE-MdP-ND-PP) 33.68%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 10.79%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Agir-MoDem-TdP) 9.62%
Abstention 66.74%

Pécresse was reelected, and it wasn't even close - she won by 12.2% and a majority of over 287k votes. It is a real disappointment for the left, which had seamlessly merged its three lists (which in the first round added up to 34%, vs. Pécresse's first round result of 36%). They could have hoped for a much closer result (like in 2015). In the end, however, Bayou won only 33.7% - which is slightly less than the combined total of the three left-wing lists (EELV, PS, LFI-PCF) from last week. On the other hand, Pécresse, with little obvious vote reserves from the first round, increased her support by nearly 10%. In short, this is a very bad result for the left.

Notably, IDF was the only region in metro France with PACA where turnout did increase by a sizable-ish amount - +2.4%, 169.3k more valid votes were cast. Pécresse won 289.7k more votes, while Bayou won just 44,000 more votes than the left's combined total from last week. On the other hand, both Bardella (RN) and Saint-Martin (LREM) were squeezed (as I expected) in what was essentially a right/left fight: their support fell by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, and their lists won 32,700 and 31,100 fewer votes respectively.

It is quite likely that higher turnout and the far-right and centre being squeezed all benefited Pécresse, while being of very little benefit to the left. I doubt that Manuel Valls (lol) or Jean-Paul Huchon (Pécresse's PS predecessor as regional president, who governed between 1998 and 2015) endorsing her over the EELV-led left had that biggest impact besides perhaps the perception of left-wing divisions, but rather Pécresse's scare campaign against the 'radical left' Greens or the 'punitive environmentalism' of EELV - and her pretending to be the sole bulwark against the scary radical left - probably worked to mobilize more right-wingers and squeeze votes from both the far-right and macronismo (given that the LREM electorate of 2021 is more right-leaning than FBM's 2017 electorate).

Pécresse won all departments except the left-wing stronghold of Seine-Saint-Denis (where Bayou won 45% to her 37%). Her strongest results were the Yvelines (53.6%) and Hauts-de-Seine (52.4%). She even won in Paris, with 43.2% against 41.3% for Bayou and 10.1% for Saint-Martin.

La Réunion
Huguette Bello (PLR-LFI-PS-PCR) 51.85%
Didier Robert (OR/DVD-LR-MR)* 48.15%
Abstention 53.5%

Incumbent president Didier Robert (DVD) lost reelection to Huguette Bello, former deputy (1997-2020) and mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014, since 2020), who he had defeated in 2015. Robert was first elected in 2010. Bello led an alliance of three left-wing lists from the first round which had won 47% together, far ahead of the incumbent's 31% result in the first round. Turnout increased by 10%, with 63,400 more valid votes in the runoff.

In this context, Bello won 44,000 more votes than the sum of the three merged lists while Robert increased his total by nearly 70,000 votes. From the first round, a fourth left-wing list led by Bello's former ally Olivier Hoarau which fell under 5% but endorsed the united left, had won 9,800 votes. Another list, led by the left-wing mayor of La Possession Vanessa Miranville, won nearly 23,000 votes but refused to merge with anyone.

With only Guiana and La Réunion changing sides, while the rest of France stays exactly the same, there are shades of reverse 2010 here - when the left swept nearly everything, but the right flipped La Réunion and Guiana.

Martinique
Serge Letchimy (PPM-BPM-MPF/DVG) 37.72%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-Palima)* 35.27%
Catherine Conconne (DVG) 14.47%
Jean-Philippe Nilor (Péyi A-RDM-LFI) 12.54%
Abstention 55.17%

Serge Letchimy, former regional president (2010-2015), defeated his successor, Alfred Marie-Jeanne (Letchimy had defeated him already in 2010, but lost in 2015). Marie-Jeanne was behind in the first round already. Turnout increased by 12.3% and there were 37,200 more valid votes. Letchimy increased his support by 6% (+19.8k), while Marie-Jeanne increased his support by 9.5% (+22.1k). Senator Catherine Conconne, a PPM dissident, increased her support by 9,000 votes, going from 10.6% to 12.5%. Jean-Philippe Nilor, a MIM dissident, only improved by 0.5%. Letchimy secured a very narrow one-seat majority.

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LC-LR-LMR-Libres)* 44.26%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS-EELV-Gs-GE-CE-PP-ND) 26.18%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 19.52%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir) 10.04%
Abstention 67.09%

Hervé Morin was predictably reelected very comfortably, with an 18% majority (nearly 136,000 vote lead). With turnout essentially unchanged (even down very slightly), Morin won 7.4% more than last week, gaining 54,600 new votes from his first round result. On the other hand, it was a very bad result for the left - which had failed to merge with the PCF-LFI list led by Sébastien Jumel. Boulanger (PS) won 26.4%, nearly 2% less than the combined total of the two main left-wing lists in the first round (14,500 votes less). This is particularly obvious in the Seine-Maritime, where Jumel's base is (in his constituency around Dieppe) and where he won 16.2% last week -- in the runoff, Boulanger won 28.3%, significantly less than the combined PS-EELV+PCF-LFI total of 33.7% in the first round (and she 15,500 fewer votes than that). Constituency results are unavailable, but just a cursory glance at local results confirms that a lot of Jumel's favourite son votes did not transfer to Boulanger. In other departments, transfers on the left were better.

As in many other regions, the far-right and macronismo found themselves squeezed too - Bay (who already did poorly in the first round) won 3,100 fewer votes and the macronista candidate won 8,000 fewer votes. It's very likely that some of those lost votes flowed to Morin.

Hervé Morin won all departments, winning over 45% of the votes in the former departments of Basse-Normandie and 44.1% in his native Eure. His weakest department was Seine-Maritime, where he won 38.5%.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS-PRG-PCF-PP)* 39.51%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 19.11%
Nicolas Florian (LR-LC) 14.19%
Nicolas Thierry (EELV-Gs-GE-CE) 14.19%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR) 13.01%
Abstention 63.43%

Alain Rousset was reelected easily - a majority of nearly 20% - and despite being in a five-way runoff, he secured a large absolute majority (101/183 seats). Rousset improved on his first round result by over 10% - gaining 167,500 votes - an impressive increase given that EELV remained in the runoff and his only semi-obvious reserve was the LFI-NPA list which got 5.75 (84,600) and didn't merge with anyone. EELV also gained 34,200 votes, and improved from 12.5% to 14.2%. Turnout increased by less than 1%, with about 20,300 more valid votes than in the first round.

The results were mediocre for everyone else. Having been second in the first round, the far-right was not squeezed and marginally increased its support by about 17,500 votes. However, macronista candidate-cabinet minister Geneviève Darrieussecq was squeezed and saw her support decrease by 7,800 votes. The right's Nicolas Florian only increased his support from 12.5% to 14.2%, 28,500 more votes. In the first round, Eddie Puyjalon (LMR), backed by Jean Lassalle, won over 7% and 108,800 votes, doing best in Lassalle's turf in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques but also more generally in rural areas. Relatively little of those voters went to Florian. In the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, where Puyjalon had won 13.6% (largely concentrated in small villages in Lassalle's constituency), Rousset's support increased by 12.2% and Thierry (EELV)'s support increased by 3.5%, Florian's vote only rose by 2.7%. In other departments, some of Puyjalon's vote may have gone to the RN in some quantity as well.

Rousset won every department. He won over 45% in Dordogne and over 40% in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Landes, Gironde and Haute-Vienne. He was below 35% in Charente-Maritime and the Vienne.

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS-PCF-PRG-PP)* 57.78%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 24%
Aurélien Pradié (LR-UDI-LC-LMR) 18.22%
Abstention 62.17%

Carole Delga was reelected to a second term in a landslide, winning nearly 58% of the vote and a 33.8% majority. She had already gotten just a bit less than 40% of the vote in the first round. She won 285,000 more votes than she had in the first round, while RN candidate Jean-Paul Garraud gained less than 1.5% (or 25,200 more votes) and LR candidate Aurélien Pradié increased his very weak first round showing by 6% (or 94,200) votes. Turnout remained almost the same with less than 18,000 more valid votes in the runoff.

Macronismo (8.8%, 132.4k) and two left-wing lists (EELV 8.8%, 133.3k; LFI-NPA 5.1%, 76.3k) found themselves eliminated after the first round and none of them merged with anyone, although the LREM candidate did endorse Delga. It is likely that much of the remaining left-wing vote and a good chunk of the LREM vote went to Delga, while some of the macronista vote also went to Pradié in lesser quantities. Delga substantially outperformed the sum of the left (PS, EELV, LFI) in the first round (53.5%).

Delga won every department. She got over 65% in the Ariège and Hautes-Pyrénées and over 60% in Haute-Garonne, Gers, Tarn, Aveyron and Lozère. Her weakest showing was the Pyrénées-Orientales (48.8%). Pradié, as in the first round, had his best result - by miles - in his native department of the Lot, where he is deputy, winning 41.4% against 48.6% for Delga.

Pays de la Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR-UDI)* 46.45%
Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-PRG-Gs-GE) 34.86%
Hervé Juvin (RN-PL) 10.48%
François de Rugy (LREM-MoDem-MR) 8.2%
Abstention 68.34%

Similar to IDF, the Pays de la Loire were a real disappointment for the left. LR incumbent Christelle Morançais had been expected to face a close runoff, but instead she won by 11.6% and a 97,900 vote majority. After the first round, Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-LFI, 18.7%) and Guillaume Garot (PS, 16.3%) merged their lists - which together added up to 35%, while Morançais had 34% from the first round. However, while Morançais managed to increase her support by over 12 points, Orphelin wasn't even able to match the left's total. Morançais won 113,700 more votes than in the first round, while Orphelin won only 9,900 more votes than what he and Garot had won in the first round. Turnout was up by a bit less than 1% with 32,000 more valid votes in the runoff.

The two other candidates - the RN and LREM - found themselves squeezed as in other regions were they were behind in the first round. Juvin lost 2% and 13,300 votes, and de Rugy lost 3.8% and 28,000 votes. Like Pécresse, Morançais ran a scare campaign against the 'radical left' Greens allied with Mélenchon, successfully mobilizing the right, and benefited from higher turnout and both the far-right and centre being squeezed. Morançais also likely won the bulk of the DLF vote (3%, 24k votes).

Morançais won every department except the Loire-Atlantique (Nantes). The failure of the left to unite is most obvious in Mayenne, where Garot benefited from a very strong personal vote in the first round, winning 36% in a traditionally right-wing department. However, in the runoff, Orphelin won only 37.6% (together they had won 46% in the first round), losing nearly 5,000 votes from the left's result in the first round. She won over 50% in the Sarthe and Vendée, and 49% in Maine-et-Loire and 47.1% in Mayenne. Orphelin won the Loire-Atlantique with 41.9% against 40.4% for Morançais.

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM-UDI-MoDem-LC-MR-Libres-Agir)* 57.3%
Thierry Mariani (RN) 42.7%
Abstention 63.16%

Renaud Muselier was comfortably reelected against Mariani - he won with a majority of 14.6% (179,500 votes), which is actually more than what Estrosi had defeated Panzermiss by in 2015 (54.8-45.2). The two polls which had predicted a quasi 50/50 runoff were wrong. Mariani increased his support by 6% or 104,200 votes. On the other hand, Muselier won 335,500 more votes than in the first round, and his share of the vote increased from 31.9% to 57.3%, in the absence of the left which had withdrawn to block the far-right. Turnout was up by 3 points, with 112,000 more votes cast (though just 73,200 more valid votes because invalid votes did also increase by quite a bit).

Félizia, the leftist candidate forced to withdraw by Paris, had won 195,200 votes (16.9%). Jean-Marc Governatori, a perennial candidate (and weirdo) who ran as a 'centrist' environmentalist, had won 61,000 votes (5.3%). It is likely that a very good number of those votes went to Muselier in the runoff, in much better numbers than what the polls had suggested. In Marseille's 1st arrdt., where Félizia won 53.2% in the first round, Muselier won 81.4%, indicating that transfers from the left/centre were, on the whole, quite good - although blank and invalid votes made up 14% of votes cast, indicating that a fair number of (most likely) left-wingers spoiled their ballots.

As for Mariani, he likely found some of his new voters from DLF (31.2k, 2.7%) and the far-right Ligue du Sud (19.1k, 1.7%). The increase in turnout clearly came from the right and far-right, and probably benefited both candidates though a deeper analysis would be required...

As for my personal opinion here, I think Muselier would have won (narrowly) in a triangulaire -- yes, I know that Muselier's majority is less than Félizia's first round vote, but Félizia not withdrawing would probably have seen him squeezed and lose a fair amount of voters who'd want to vote strategically to defeat Mariani. Félizia was right and it's a pity he was bullied by the dumbass Parisian party elites into withdrawing to 'block the far-right', and now they'll be without representation regionally for the second time in a row. Who needs opponents when the left insists on committing seppuku in every election? But yes, I'm sure Muselier will come up with a 'mechanism' to allow the left to 'propose motions' or whatever. I also have oceanfront property in Nebraska that I can sell them.

Muselier won every department. He got over 60% in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence and Hautes-Alpes and 59.4% in the Bouches-du-Rhône, including 63% in Marseille. He won 57.4% in the Alpes-Maritimes. The race was closer in the traditional far-right hotbeds of Vaucluse (52.6% Muselier) and Var (54% Muselier).

That's all for my regional elections analysis. I might have more to say later.

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I noticed that Bardella did decently well in the first round in the bourgeois parts of Paris - over 10% in 16ème and 7ème, just under in 6, 8, 17; significantly overperforming Le Pen's 2017 results. Was there any particular reason why?

Almost certainly right-wing protest votes - not uncommon in these types of low-stakes election, especially in the first round, amidst low turnout. It seems that a fair number of them returned home (to the right) in the second round, which makes a lot of sense. If you believe exit polls, somewhere between 10% (Ifop) and 19% (Ipsos) of Fillon 2017 voters voted RN this year.

I noticed a similar phenomenon in Marseille, though it was much bigger there: Mariani won 30.6% in the first round in Marseille's 8th arrondissement (which includes much of the most traditional bourgeois neighbourhoods of southern Marseille), compared to 17% for Panzergirl. Given that there was a lot of right-wing discontent over Muselier's alliance with LREM, it makes sense.