Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

Holy crap

That is a considerable discrepancy. I wonder what an electoral map would look like in 2020 if these respective groups voted along those lines. Given polarization, I know that won't happen, but it would be interesting to see regardless.

At this point I almost expect a conservative alternative to Donald Trump to appear, even if only as a vanity campaign. It might do astonishingly well in picking off conservative votes. Democrats could end up with a 51-43-6 split of the Presidential vote.

I can play this game too.

"how narrow is the #Resistance base? in new American Barometer poll, Donald Trump's approval rating among ethnic minorities is 24% approve, 76% disapprove. Among all other Americans it's 57% approve, 43% disapprove.

[Beet]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

[Beet]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

[Beet]

2024 will be the watershed year. Once kids who came of age during Trump can vote, the floodgates will finally open.

Already conceding 2020? Most kids who are coming of age now (under age 16) are Trump supporters, just like their parents and grandparents.

Do you actually know any Youngs?

DPKDebator is in that age group, I believe. And he said something to that effect when he first joined. I've also heard the same thing from many people.

[Beet]

Pew Research American Trends Panel: Sep. 24 - Oct. 7, 10683 adults (change from Jul/Aug)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 61 (+2)

I'm having trouble connecting these bad national numbers for Trump with the GOP landslides in places like MN-08, TX-23, and OR-05 (including high Trump approvals). This reminds me of the 2012 election when Romney was doing well in the generic ballot, but Obama was winning the state-level polls.

[Beet]

The  rationale behind the Electoral College is that the States, and not the People, elect the President. It works against  certain forms of vote fraud (let us say a state having fabricated 90 million votes) or having a veritable single-Party system in which the second-largest Party is effectively shut out, as was true in much of the post-Reconstruction South. Thus the Electoral College recognizes no difference between winning a state 51-48 or winning it 81-18 in assessing the value of the votes. Thus if democracy failed in one state that state would not have inordinate power in the federal government.

The problem is that minorities within states become irrelevant -- like blacks in most of the South. maybe rural interests in New York State -- even if they are significant.  I want to see Democratic Presidential candidates seeking votes among Mexican-Americans in Texas, and I want Republican Presidential candidates seeking votes among agricultural interests in California.  Minorities matter in close elections.   

Agreed, but the EC also makes sure that rural and small-town voters aren't marginalized in the political process at the expense of the cities and the coasts.

It depends - if you're a rural and small-town voter in Nebraska, Vermont, or any other non-swing state, it makes sure you're even more marginalized than you otherwise would be. Really the benefits go to swing states - swing state North Carolina on the coast benefits at the expense of small-town Oklahoma in the heartland.

[Beet]

Don't forget Trump's favorables were only ~35% when he won 46% of the vote. He's never fallen below that since Election Day. About 2% who didn't go for him in 2016 will vote for him if the world hasn't blown up and the economy is growing, because we were told the opposite in 2016. Also, his current poll numbers are a function of the recent government shutdown. If he even starts to move to the center watch his numbers skyrocket.

[Beet]

(Paging Mr. Brower.  Please report to your computer.)

Gallup Trump approvals in all 50 states

Cautionary note: this data was gathered throughout the whole of 2018, so take it with a grain of salt.  But it's a lot better than no data.  Summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very interesting.
Thanks for posting this.

Interesting his approval in Texas is lower than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.