The problem is, it's difficult to know what China actually plans to do because its politics are so opaque.
That's what makes China so interesting! Even the best analyses are little more than well-educated guesswork.
Eh, I find politics where someone like Nate Silver can do an analysis more interesting. There's still a lot of guesswork involved, but it's like a mystery with a lot of clues. China is like a mystery with no clues, or things that look like clues but are just head-fakes. At some point you just throw up your hands.
