Chilean Elections. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024. (Primaries June 9th)

[kaoras]

The obvious conclusion is that there's a leftist->PDG->Republican pipeline, kind of like how about half of the Five Star supporters in Italy wound up voting for Salvini and Meloni.

Yes, but I think that is mostly that there is a huge chunk of the electorate that is non ideological and has very fickle preferences, swinging wildly between the most anti status quo option of the moment.

And the problem is that more than ever, the Chilean left currently is only appealing to the true believers, which apparently will only get them to 38%.

[kaoras]

And the problem is that more than ever, the Chilean left currently is only appealing to the true believers, which apparently will only get them to 38%.

Don't worry, PPD president Natalia Piergentili has the solution for this, insulting your own voters!

It's a bit hard to translate her words because she used a lot of slang terms, but the most remarkable thing was that she called leftists voters "hairy monkeys".

If you want to keep talking to the hairy monkeys, to the 30%, to the compañeres, I don't think you feel like making a self-criticism"

She also slammed the "agenda sexo-genérica" (sex-gender agenda). Keep in mind that PPD propaganda looks like this, Latinx use included

PPD was also making noises about creating a "Social-democratic Federation" with PS, PR and PL to save itself from electoral doom (the constitutional expert committee passed a 5% electoral treshold, with a transitory 4% for the next election, none of which would be cleared by PPD). After these declarations, widely condemmed, PS deputies have started calling for her to be kicked out of the Government Political Committee lol.

PPD has outlived his usefulness and should die, most of their old voters are now in FA, precisely those who she is insulting.

[kaoras]

The Expert Committee finished the "Anteproyecto", that has been widely praised non-stop by the press and pundits in the last few weeks. You can read it here, in Spanish

Despite all the good press, latest CADEM poll shows that just 28% would vote "In Favour" and 48% would vote "Against" it. And this is before the Republican majority starts adding stuff. Yesterday Boric said that he would vote "In Favour" of the current anteproyecto (which will probably sink it a bit more ) but if this process fail there won't be a third attempt during his government.

I think this whole thing is DOA. The Left base is still not over Approve defeat last year and the Right base still doesn't want a new Constitution. Neither side is even willing to give it a chance and the non-ideological majority is tired and distrustful.

Funny thing is, just like with the last Convention, almost all the provisions in the Anteproyecto are very popular (The only thing that polled under 60% approval was the 5% threshold in the electoral law) but as I explained, no one cares about what actually is in it.

In any case, good riddance. Pinochet's Constitution is better than whatever Kast's party will come out with, and I disagree with the Constitucional Bases of the current process anyway.

[kaoras]

There are also tons of other foundations that have received huge amounts of public money and are starting to being investigated (Though the main one, Urbanismo Social, at least appears legit unlike Democracia Viva, still not going to help them with the public opinion lol)

I'm really cynic about corruption and never bought FA insufferable holier than thou attitude but it was a central part of their identity nonetheless. But even for me it has been kind of surprising how shamesly they have privileged putting their friends in the State Apparatus over actually doing a competent job considering how annoying they are with their moral superiority.

But well, FA types are all sociologists and post-graduates in fields white no employability outside the State administration or non-profits that need State funds so in hindsight it shouldn't be surprising.

[kaoras]

.
-It's also unclear when exactly the President learned of it, with a recent statement seemingly implying he was informed or knew before it broke out in the media (it's possible he misspoke). Thus far, his approval ratings have held steady (close to 30%) despite the storm, but we'll see how things progress.

And it keeps being steady. In my anecdotal evidence, most people already had the idea that FA was as corrupt as the rest either due to fake news or the correct perception of rampant "amiguismo".

In the constitutional front, there was a time period to present Popular Initiatives for the Council that needed to gather 10k signatures. The number of people that signed an initiative was like 1/4 of the old process and initially it appeared that only right-wing ones would make the cut. In the end several leftist initiatives did manage to gather enough signatures.

Among the right wing stuff there are things like banning abortion, defending rodeo and of course, house arrest for human rights abusers. I wonder if Republicanos and Chile Vamos will resist the urge to approve the last one lol.

Polls keep showing that this new process is on track to be an even bigger failure than the last one. Latest Cadem shows just 25% in favour and 55% against. Other polls show more undecideds but a similar proportion of 2-1 for "Against"

[kaoras]

Communist Party president Guillermo Tellier has died at age 79. He was leader of the Communist Party armed wing during the dictatorship (whose only notable act was a failed assassination attempt against Pinochet) and during his leadership during democracy he led the PC out of their political isolation through pacts with the Concertación, the formation of the New Majority with Bachelet and nowadays the current Boric government.

Boric declared a day of national mourning. This was opposed by the right, obviously, because of his role during the dictatorship saying that he "justified violence". Nevermind that the right has spent the whole mont justifying the coup of 1973, because bombing the government palace, killing thousands of people, raping women with dogs and stealing babies isn't violence apparently.

Honestly, the reason I'm not updating this thread is because I'm tired of pretending that a good chunk of this country isn't a basket of morally bankrupt deplorables:

[kaoras]

All of the left kowtowed to Boric, perhaps the most disgusting person in Latin American politics today, and you expect people to just accept that even with a massive decline in living standards and government that is a diet Piñera administration?

You defended this even with massive warning early on of the massive risk of tying yourself to the BoBo.

Yes PSOL, I know you'd rather had my mum being in prison for being a communist like Kast proposed in his platform, than you very much for your deep insight.

[kaoras]

The left didn’t necessarily had to support Boric from the start, they could’ve nominated Jadue, for instance.

So president Provoste then.

Which would have been a better outcome most likely lol.

Also, a note for the fake leftist Cardoso voter, Chile does, in fact, have a runoff system where the binary choice was between Kast and Boric and PSOL said that PC members should have sit it out and wait for the Operación Condor 2.0 to happen.

Jadue lost the primary because he showed he was unelectable in the last weeks and totally melted in the debates. To the point he made me jump ship to Boric. (And I've been telling you all how awful the FA is for as long as I've been in this forum)

[kaoras]

Well, I suppose I should give an update at least.

Polls for this process have been terrible for the start, but the numbers have tanked even further since the Republican Party started added "amendments" to the text proposed by the expert committee.

According to the latest CADEM poll, 64% think that they country needs a new constitution, but just 21% will vote "in favor of the current proposal, and 59% will vote "against". According to data influye, 10% would vote in favor and 50% against.

Per CADEM, just like the proposal of 2022, most people agree with almost all the contents, but they still want to reject it. It all comes down to vibes and some particularly toxic amendments pushed by the right (like declaring Rodeo the National Sport or freedom for some Pinochet era- Human Right abusers)

Kast and the Republicans are going all in trying to approve "their" constitution, to the perplexity of their base that doesn't want to change the constitution. While Chile Vamos also is mostly "In favor", some are already jumping from the sinking ship like Evelyn Matthei.

On the left, while some still cling to false hope, most realize that they will have to follow their voter base that never even gave a chance to this new process. Again, the thing with the left is emotional, the left base truly liked the previous proposal and is angry at the conservative reaction and the fact that the expert committee was nominated by congress.

This is a problem when in 10-20 years people start trying again (everyone has said that if this fails, there will not be a third attempt). The left will never accept anything that isn't 100% elected but is extremely clear that the median Chilean voter cannot be trusted to vote on constitutional matters. A zapato chino, really.  

[kaoras]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

The TL:DR is that both the 2022 document, and the new one, are both seen by the public to do more than what a constitution is supposed to do. First the activist Left and now the revisionist Right have been unable to avoid throwing in things more naturally the scope of regular partisan government policy. But having the constitution include such policies would make them hard to change or get rid of, so of course the temptation is too great. Never mind the fact that it is these 'riders' which doomed the first document and will doom the second cause they make the whole thing look partisan, even though the most important things that whole process was supposed to solve are there and seemingly have universal approval.

No, that is a very common mistake outside observers make. I mean, it is true, but is not the reason why normal people reject the proposals. The only people that care about "things that shouldn't be on the constitution" are ultra high info voters and political pundits. As I said, when the issues are polled, huge majorities agree with almost all the provisions of both proposals (even though most of them are very contradictory!)

For example, for the latest one:

[The Rodeo polling is biased because of the inclusion of the national dance cueca at the beginning, other polls show it being absolutely toxic with like 20% in favor)

Cadem even asked again after naming all those popular amendments and the "Against" vote only went down 3%!

It all comes down to vibes. People rejected the left's proposal because they thought they were going to steal their house and now are rejecting the Kast's proposal because Kast is extreme, and extremes are bad and the expert committee was undemocratic or something.

IMO if I was had to lay the blame on any single thing, it would be the decision to make the drafting of the process explicitly partisan with lists that aligned with the national coalitions and factions, and then on this second attempt they just upped that with the experts. Obviously you can't ban people from having opinions or from stating how they would align, but official nonpartisanship would have been a good start. And maybe even more localized rather than provincial/national ways to nominate them - and therefore by likely extension a larger convention. You want these people to be responsible to their constituents first, not a party program of policies.

That was what was attempted in the first process with the independent lists and all the independents ended up being way more extreme than the partisans, so the solution of the right was to ban the independent lists, allow only political parties and make the districts bigger. And this also didn't work out.

As I said, Portales was on to something when he said that this country is too dumb for democracy.

[kaoras]

1. I did a google search but found nothing. Why is the national sport being the rodeo controversial?

2. Couldn't that polling be compatible with Oryx's explanation if one assumes people like these proposals individually, but don't like their combination as being overly complex? (My guess is that the truth falls somewhere in between, with some voters voting no for "base" reasons and others voting no for more constitution specific reasons).

Rodeo involves two riders slamming a steer against a wall to get "points". Many people decry it as animal cruelty. Is very polarizing along the urban-rural divide, but Chile is overwhelmingly urban so... Besides, is something typical only in the rural centre zone and to a much lesser extent in the rural south. Rodeo being the national sport is already in a law passed by the Dictatorship.

Also, CADEM did ask a month ago the reason people give to reject the proposal:



For those on the right, the main ones are preference for the current constitution, disapproval of the current government, not being informed, not wanting another process and distrust in the experts.

For those on left, the overwhelming reason is distrust in the expert committee because it was unelected, uninterest in the topics being addressed (as in, they want more things, like those covered by the previous proposal), and distrust in the republican party.

So, only 7% of right-wingers and 26% of leftwingers are rejecting due to the issues, but in the latter case is more because of things that aren't in it.

[kaoras]

New polling has been a bit contradictory. CADEM, the one that polls more frequently, shows a small recovery for "In favor" to 28% (still far behind "Against" at 53%). However, the infamous Sichel's pollster Black and White showed a massive surge for in favor in the last few weeks, going from 31 to 48% (they never take undecideds into account nor disclose their number). Given that B&W has been very wrong in the past, is used shamelessly by El Mercurio to push anti-goverment talking points and that they literally changed their methodology to show Boric with a lower approval rating*, I'm not very inclined to believe them.

*_{B&W was unusual in that it consistently showed Boric over 40% instead of the usual ~30%, so they added the explicit category of "Neither approves nor disapproves" to artificially lower his numbers}

Overall, the 4 most recent polls:

UDP-Feedback: In Favour 24,7% | Against 62,7%
CADEM: In Favour 28% |Against 53%
Criteria: In Favour 18% |Against 48%
Black and White: In Favour 48% | Against 52%

Currently the expert committee is reviewing the text proposed by the elected members and have eliminated some controversial proposals but the parties failed to reach deals and the left is telegraphing that is too little too late.

Overall, most of the right and the """"centrists""" ex concertación dinosaurs of Amarillos/Demócratas, have said that they will keep pushing for "In Favour" and some are even confident in that they will get a wide victory, Evelyn Matthei being the big exception. So, ¿Could they turn things around? In their favour they have a favorable press, lots of money to campaign and most likely the right base will "come home" once is clear that the text is opposed by the evil communists-FA. Also, I doubt that the left will do a campaign as dirty as the one made by the right in the last plebiscite, unfortunately they don't have the killer instinct to lie so shamelessly and aggressively so the average voter will have less things to fear. Probably that could still not be enough, but we need to see how low info voters behave, they were the ones that sealed the landslide for reject.

[kaoras]

In electoral politics, in one year there will be local and regional elections and government parties agreed to run on a joint list from the communist to the DC. Last time for mayoral elections (which are FPTP) the current government parties and the DC ran on four different lists and overall, there were 7 leftist lists.

The results for the left are obviously going to be very bad and that's why they are trying to minimize their losses with unity. In their favor there is the fact that they are not as overextend as they could be because their hilarious fragmentation in 2021 meant that they left a lot of food in the table even while getting over 60% of the vote. Currently they have 149 mayorships, retaining 100 could be considered a moral victory.

Their early political predictions see danger of losing Santiago Centro, Valparaíso, Puerto Montt and San Bernardo. In Santiago communist mayor Irací Hassler is DOA, Santiago hates incumbents and she has done a poor job. In Valparaíso they are talking about Sharp who technically consider himself to be opposition to Boric, but the goverment electoral experts see danger for him.

Puerto Montt, despite being a very conservative city, has never elected a rightist mayor. However, is one of the lowest hanging fruits for the opposition next year given that the PS mayor is unpopular and term limited. Also, having been to Puerto Montt, that city really could use a change in administration, it's hard to believe how awful it actually is until you set foot in it. San Bernardo is a big suburb in south Santiago and also has an unpopular PS mayor.

I will do a more extensive coverage next year of all the major comunas and regional capitals!

[kaoras]

Latest Cadem has the same numbers as last week 28-53, here is the breakdown.



Remarkably similar across all demographic groups, with just a few spikes among traditionally left wing groups like middle class and the young.

However, with the right wing, Kast and Reject voters evenly divided, "In Favour" could make a lot of ground if all the right wingers "come home". That's the hope of Kast and Chile Vamos, who in the last days seem very confident that they can turn things around.

I'm not in Chile so I can't sense things on the ground

[kaoras]

Yeah, the average of polls now points towards something like a 10-point victory for Against thanks to the right "coming home", but polls are all over the place. The traditional chilean pollsters still have a relatively comfortable victory for Against (including Activa, the most accurate of the last plebiscite, with a 30 point gap!) but several foreign polls have In Favour ahead.

At the end of the day, the key is the behavior of those not engaged with politics that have broken heavily against the government in the last two elections. The problem that polls always have is that they only reach the politically engaged. The attempts of studying those "forced" to vote show a 50/50 split this time but who knows.

The government is also having an absolutely atrocious week with corruption scandals resurfacing and a guy pardoned by Boric being arrested for kidnapping. So I think everything can happen. Not that I care that much anymore.

[kaoras]

What are the main proposals of the new counstition ?

I think this is a good summary. Run google translate.

https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/12/13/los-8-cambios-mas-polemicos-de-la-nueva-constitucion-que-se-sometera-a-plebiscito-este-domingo-en-chile/

[kaoras]

The results that they are showing from Santiago are lopsided for "Against". In my hometown in Valdivia, the first precincts also show "Against" winning.

[kaoras]

First results from Chile proper:

In favour 48%, Against 52%.

However, the first results for Santiago are disproportionally from district 11, el más facho. Against is winning the Metropolitan Region by "just" 54-46.

This website is better https://live.decidechile.cl/2023/plebiscito

[kaoras]

I think this is a good summary. Run google translate.

https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/12/13/los-8-cambios-mas-polemicos-de-la-nueva-constitucion-que-se-sometera-a-plebiscito-este-domingo-en-chile/

Compared to the current constitution, is the proposed one better from a left wing point of view (regardless of whether it’s what such people would have wanted before the 1st referendum)?

Absolutely not.

[kaoras]

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

[kaoras]

Electoral geography looking weird. It looks like a 10 point margin, but Against is overperfoming Boric in the regions (specially in the south) and underperforming in Santiago

[kaoras]

54.20% counted:

55.16% Against
44.84% In favour

TV channels are now calling an "Against" victory.

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

When you mean "Government parties", do you mean left and right government parties, or just the current government?

The current government. I get what you are referring to but nobody in Latin America uses the term in that way and you would struggle to explain to a layman the notion of volkspartei

[kaoras]

The final result is going to be literally the 2021 Boric margin with the difference that this time Against also won Tarapacá and Biobío.

Map: Against in Red and Favour in Blue



The easiest way to understand it is a traditional left-wing coalition with a sprinkle of "Right for Against" on top. For example, in the north Against ran behind Boric in traditionally left-wing Atacama and Coquimbo but overperformed in the more right-wing Arica and Tarapacá.

However there are some bizarre results here and there like some ancestral leftwing areas lost to "muh trendz" that came back to vote for Against like Antuco, Curanilahue and Arauco in Biobío and the "rural" areas of Arica and Tarapacá.

[kaoras]

Do we think this constitution would have won if there wasn’t the fetal personhood section? Did the Against side focus on any particular provision as killer or just saying the whole thing was bad?

Against focused on Abortion, the elimination of the territorial tax that funds local goverment and the "constitutionalization" of the private pension and health system, but in general they said that the whole thing was bad.

"Against" basically tried to copy the successful scare campaign done by "Reject" last year(Which convinced everyone that the new constitution was going to steal their house) speaking of all kind of apocalyptic scenarios if the "Kastitution" was approved, but honestly, the left is way worse at spreading fake news than the right.

In Favour tried to make this another referendum on the government but Boric and cia didn't fall in that trap this time and thus they were only partially successful.

The government is still on track for a shellacking at next year's municipal elections but at least now they have some standing to try to push for their agenda. (But is Boric who we are talking about, I doubt he manages to pass anything).

[kaoras]

Also, I'm just glad that those human rights abusers at Punta Peuco won't be freed (the right literally put a section designed to do that). The Against campaign didn't focus on that (correctly IMO) but some of us still have an ounce of moral decency in this godforsaken country