Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Was vaguely paying attention but then they kept saying “zanja” and I had to look it up. Does KAST really want to build a moat around Chile?

Of course he does, why wouldn't he.

[kaoras]

Boric basically called Kast a nazi (his father was literally a nazi) and a tax evader (He has offshore accounts in Panamá) and Kast absolutely lost his mind. This is the best debate ever.

[kaoras]

What is Artes saying?

Ah, the usual, no to the militarization of the Mapuche Conflict and saying that every form of fighting is valid for them until they achieve independence, putting the army to do something productive for once and make them build social housing, saying his program doesn't have a cost because he doesn't follow capitalist logic and that he would get the money by nationalizing the natural resources. He also tried to give his opening minute as a minute of silence for a woman that die in the protests last week, but was interrupted by one of the moderators.

Artés is my dream protest vote tbh.

As for the debate in general, there are 2 consensus: Provoste was among the winners, and Sichel was the worst. Analysts also highlighted that the leftist candidates seemed to have a tacit accord, not attacking each other and coordinating in taking down Sichel and Kast. While there wasn't any actual pre-debate coordination, it was very pleasing to see them helping each other and displaying unity (save for Artés that constantly attacked Boric, which actually helps him since it makes him look more moderate).

[kaoras]

Also, as if Sichel didn't have enough troubles, two new issues arose for him today. First, PS president Alvaro Elizalde claimed that Sichel begged him to be named sub-secretary in Bachelet's second government. But more serious, CHV and CNN Chile aired a reportage showing illegal financing by fishing companies to Sichel's parliamentary campaign in 2009 (when he ran for deputy for the DC)

All of this on top of his awful debate performance, and Sichel campaign right now is basically the "stop, he is already dead" meme.

I think we are officially in the total Sichel meltdown escenario.

[kaoras]

What is Artes saying?

Ah, the usual, no to the militarization of the Mapuche Conflict and saying that every form of fighting is valid for them until they achieve independence, putting the army to do something productive for once and make them build social housing, saying his program doesn't have a cost because he doesn't follow capitalist logic and that he would get the money by nationalizing the natural resources. He also tried to give his opening minute as a minute of silence for a woman that die in the protests last week, but was interrupted by one of the moderators.

Artés is my dream protest vote tbh.

As for the debate in general, there are 2 consensus: Provoste was among the winners, and Sichel was the worst. Analysts also highlighted that the leftist candidates seemed to have a tacit accord, not attacking each other and coordinating in taking down Sichel and Kast. While there wasn't any actual pre-debate coordination, it was very pleasing to see them helping each other and displaying unity (save for Artés that constantly attacked Boric, which actually helps him since it makes him look more moderate).

How did Kast do?

There's no consensus. Some think he did well, other than he did very badly, especially because of his exchange with Boric and the scrutiny he faced over some of his proposals, like the moat. Personally, I think he was fine, not as good as the last debate but he did well with the exception of the Boric-Panamá thing. In any case, independent of your perception of Kast's performance, the abysmal performance of Sichel means that this likely will not be a setback for him.

[kaoras]

Today there was a radio debate, I just listened to a few parts because I couldn't be bothered to hear Sichel's loud and angry tone that bordered on screaming.

It seems that Boric was bad during it? But the only thing people are talking about is that Kast really wants to be called José Antonio and not just José, and Boric repeatedly called him José Kast to get on his nerves. Of course, the "Liberal" political analysts are afraid of this terrible level of authoritarianism, and not of the guy that basically wants emergency powers without congress approvals and to incarcerate leftists. I think they also talked about some scandal with Provoste's husband but nobody is paying much attention to that.

Ah, and Sichel's spokeswoman Katherina Martorell is being investigated by Contraloría due to irregularities in the purchase of cameras to the police when she was subsecretary of crime prevention during this goverment. She will probably have to resign as well (his campaign coordinator also resigned due to the fishing companies case). At this point the Sichel thing is not even funny, it's just sad.

[kaoras]

holy sh**t Sichel is imploding

Hilarious.

He added a new spokesperson, Clemente Perez, famous for his phrase "cabros, esto no prendió" (boys, this didn't catch on) in relation to the evasion protest at the metro, 2 days before the social uprising.

As I have said, the current state of Sichel campaign is just sad. He and especially his new campaign manager, Juan José Santa Cruz, have been insanely aggressive, almost shouting to everyone who listens that all of this is a huge conspiracy against Sichel from the DC and with a truly hysterical messaging of being the most antipolitics and populist guy around while acussing everyone else of being irresponsible populists and the left of being undemocratic thugs.

[kaoras]

Two new polls came out today with vastly different pictures.

Activa (The one Alfred posted, here I'm posting the Likely voter numbers and second round)

Activa-Pulso Ciudadano LV:

Boric: 31.3
Kast: 20.2
Provoste: 16.5
Sichel 8.9
Parisi: 6.9
Ominami: 3.7
Artes 2.4

Secound Round LV:

Boric 52.6 - Kast 30.2 | Boric 38.6 - Provoste 30.8 | Boric 49.4- Sichel 28.5

CADEM

Kast 21
Boric 20
Provoste 12
Sichel 7
Parisi 6
Ominami 4
Artes 3

Second Round:

Boric 43- Kast 35 | Boric 39- Provoste 35 | Boric 41- Sichel 35

The one thing they have in common is the Sichel meltdown. But while in the Activa poll the beneficiary of (this week) Sichel collapse is almost exclusively Provoste, in Cadem the sole beneficiary is Kast. Cadem is the first poll to show Kast in the first place.

I find Cadem numbers hard to believe, starting for everyone getting exactly the same percentage against Boric in the runoff.

Activa also has 67% of support for Piñera Impeachment.

[kaoras]

A Boric-Provoste runoff would be very fun. Plus it's possible that if anyone stands to benefit from systemic poll undersampling it'd be sra Yasna?

In theory yes, because her support comes mainly from under polled groups such as the elderly and the poor. But for example, in 2017 the polls sub estimated the FA (and Kast to a much lesser extent), and the sparse polling for the May elections also saw some FA underpolling.

But a Boric-Provoste map would probably be the most interesting-looking map out there.

[kaoras]

Aaaaaand the government is blaming Boric and Provoste for violence and looting that occurred on the second anniversary of the beginning of the estallido social a few days ago, because they dared refer to people held for years on accusations of destroying the Santiago Metro before being acquitted as “political prisoners”.

I didn't want to comment on that because honestly, I'm just done and tired with this government and the right in general. And the worst part is, that they probably believe it. The right truly thinks that the estallido social was orchestrated by the FA and the PC and I'm sure they believe that Boric and Provoste control the looters or that their law for pardoning those with years of preventive presión time without trial truly is what motivates the violence, as if violence didn't exist before that. And there's plenty of people that buy that.

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

[kaoras]

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

This sounds hilarious.

There you go:

https://www.adnradio.cl/nacional/2019/12/22/informe-del-ministerio-del-interior-apunta-a-influencia-del-kpop-en-el-estallido-social-3994326.html

This is the level of incompetency we have had to deal daily since Piñera assumed office.

[kaoras]

La Franja Electoral is here: https://youtu.be/s8yanUfQ6p4

I think the best was Parisi but is not like any of them was outstanding. Provoste made a weird homage to the victims of the COVID pandemic.

In campaign news, Boric had a very bad week due to a series of gaffes regarding the specific numbers of his economic proposals. 

[kaoras]

UDI used images of the coup and the bombing of La Moneda for their terror campaign in their parliamentary franja. Classy

[kaoras]

Also notable how Kast’s franja was very anti-cancel culture/right-wing grievance politics. Seemed almost devoid of content beyond “say what you really think [about Pinochet or the gays or whatever]”. I would have expected at least something about the estallido or immigration or his general campaign themes, but I guess they’re all subordinate to the “Atrévete” message - banking hard on “shy Kast voters” I suppose.

Kast is trying (successfully IMO) to moderate his image and to present himself as someone "nice" which is why he is recurring to more subtle dog whistles such as "rebelate" (against the left). His radio ads are similar though a little more overt on what they are doing (I don't remember the exact wording though)

Kast also seems to understand to a certain extent that the terror campaign of Chile Podemos + and the government is way too hysterical and needs to be dialed back a little to be effective. He criticized the government for blaming the violence of the 18 de Octubre on Provoste and Boric for example.

From what I can tell he has been successful at mobilizing disenchanted right wing voters that had stopped supporting Chile Podemos+ and could have been lost to abstention, but I've yet to see him attrackting anyone that was not traditionally right wing to begin with.

[kaoras]

I was watching the ad compilation and I was wondering why Mario's ads felt so high quality. Then I learned that he was a filmmaker involved in the television in the past.
It all makes sense now.

Ah, Ominami, yeah, but it's the fourth time doing the same thing, it loses the charm

[kaoras]

Two new polls, and Kast is in full surge right now.

CADEM:

Kast 23 (+2)
Boric 20 (=)
Provoste 12 (=)
Sichel 7 (=)
Parisis 6 (=)
Ominami 5 (+1)
Artés 1 (-2)

Tankies for Kast?

Internal poll for Boric campaign, from Criteria (Likely Voters):

Boric 30,8%
Kast 27,7%
Provoste 10,9%
Sichel 8,1%
Parisi 7,7%
Ominami 3,5%
Artés 2%.

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

[kaoras]

Two new polls, and Kast is in full surge right now.

CADEM:

Kast 23 (+2)
Boric 20 (=)
Provoste 12 (=)
Sichel 7 (=)
Parisis 6 (=)
Ominami 5 (+1)
Artés 1 (-2)

Tankies for Kast?

Internal poll for Boric campaign, from Criteria (Likely Voters):

Boric 30,8%
Kast 27,7%
Provoste 10,9%
Sichel 8,1%
Parisi 7,7%
Ominami 3,5%
Artés 2%.

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

Turns out that a campaign consisting of shouting "he's a fascist! His father was a NAZI!" isn't all that convincing outside of a public university student union

JAK winning still doesn't seem likely yet but it would really be fitting for him to trip through the door thanks to the complete incompetence of everyone else.

Sichel barely needs explanation, but he and ilk absolutely deserve a single digit smashing. Provoste hardly deserves much better. The Chilean elites combine the arrogance and emphasis on optics over action of those in Washington DC with all the greed and corruption of the worst caudillo. They inherited a (relatively) safe and prosperous country without ever having to justify their own positions or to seriously consider how to handle the problems they still had without breaking what worked. So instead they put their own enrichment above all else and called anyone who went against them Communist terrorists, so naturally they're currently getting blown out by actual socialists. They're incapable of actually considering any opposition on its own terms to accept it or refute it because they don't actually have any kind of ethos or ideology behind their actions, besides the occasional attempt to mindlessly copy the US or Europe. So all they can do is throw out smears that look increasingly ridiculous even to their own supporters, thereby destroying their own legitimacy.

But then Boric is seemingly making the exact same mistake, thinking he can substitute a strong positive vision with smears of his strongest opposition. I'm no expert on Kast's past but he whatever he may secretly believe his supporters are popping up all over the place because he has a message that's actually relevant to Chileans today. Not the problems of people in 1942, or 1973, or 1989, but of 2021. When Sichel was his opponent he did it easily enough, but of course all he had to do was call him a corrupt snake and Sichel would dutifully hiss and show off his loot. Now that he can't just rely on the obvious corruption of the government he can either put forward a convincing positive vision or fight what Kast is actually saying as opposed to hyperbolic comparisons to past monsters. The Chilean radical left has built up enough public goodwill in the past few years that he would win either way. He could even just shut up, stop shooting himself in the foot now that he's the clear frontrunner and glide into the presidency inoffensively.

Whereas falling back on "he's ADOLF PINOCHET" with an electorate that's had the part of the brain responsible for outrage burnt out through decades of hyperbole about Communist terrorists is probably the single best way to get President Kast.

Except that Boric hasn't done that? I don't know If you are actually following the campaign or just assuming that the Chilean left is following the Haddad playbook but Boric is all about a positive vision for a new Chile, in Unity, and advancing together towards the future under rainbows.

Some analyst even said that Kast is surging precisely because "fear is stronger than hope"

If anything, I would say that Boric NEEDS to do more negative campaign and show everyone about all the authoritarian insanities of Kast. I don't recall him attacking Kast at all outside the debates.

Your description of the Chilean Elite is good but the Chile that Pinochet left couldn't be described as "prosperous" by any definition of the word, the poverty rate was 70% (using the current methodology), real wages recovered 1973 levels in 1996... The "prosperity" started in the 90's, the dictatorship economic "prosperity" is a myth

[kaoras]

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

It does seem the case that a substantial amount of left-wing voters are just not comfortable with him, but I wouldn't worry about them not falling in line by the time we get into the second round (they may not vote on the first though, which will hurt the left downballot). If anything, I'd be more worried about Boric losing the less ideological voters via self-inflicted wounds, like his sudden lack of message discipline after managing to stay above the fray for quite a while.

All he needs to do is be quiet, try to look presidential and not do something stupid, and he should sail into an easy victory. It would be quite something if he botched it up with this political climate.

Having said all that, I do think Kast has successfully increased his ceiling, even if he's still far ahead from where he would need to be in order to have a chance. At least anecdotally, I have heard of non-ideological people finding him more appealing this time (more "presidential" by comparison to some of the other candidates, if that makes sense) or being willing to settle for him in light of the options.

What I have seen is Boric is actually doing better among not that ideological but progressive voters while struggling with more militantly left wing people (as in, the people whose usual motivation for voting is to "stop the right")

I'm not really that worried about those people not voting in the first round, but is a problem that Boric has. (I honestly didn't know who the hell were the 20% that is voting for Boric in the polls until I started digging among less ideological people,  since most of my left wing bubble is undecided). I think Artes could randomly appear with like 5% of the vote in election day.

[kaoras]

I mean, there’s also the fact that Kast doesn’t believe in vaccine mandates but does believe in “detaining radical agitators” (aka any protesters). It’s not a secret belief of his or something dug up from the past, it’s his current platform.

And have dictatorial powers to detain people in their homes without congress approval, and investigate and control ONG, and fight against the influence of evil international organizations, and to to weaken legal oversight over government action and be able to recall opposition governors, and...

Honestly, it's obvious that the press isn't going to focus on it like they did it with Jadue because of course not, they are the chilean press. But is insane that the left isn't using this as regular ammo against Kast

[kaoras]

JAJAJAJAJA, Oh god, Sichel is the gift that just keeps on giving.

Today several deputies and senators from Chile Podemos + declared their support for Kast (many of them had been attacked by Sichel for different reasons). The right was also angry with Sichel because of his attacks on Kast and told him to stop doing that since they want to support Kast in the second run and get incorporated in his government if he wins. (did I mention that Sichel is the candidate that attacks Kast the most? I don't know what the hell Boric is doing but his franja is full of his saccharine unity nonsense and Provoste is busy destroying the private pension system in the senate, none of them even talk about Kast unless they are provoked by him)

Sichel responded to this by giving a press conference at prime time, saying he wasn't going to be blackmailed into morphing into a far-right person that isn't tolerant and doesn't believe in liberty and diversity (obviously refering to Kast)

He asked Chile Podemos + parties to give freedom of action to support Kast because he didn't want to be with people that wanted to go back to an old right that wanted to roll back liberties and social rights and supported him only for convenience.  

That was a very good speech though, I think he could make gains in the polls, but maybe I liked it because he epically trashed the right and Kast.

In any case, Chile Podemos +, is, once again, in full disarray.

[kaoras]

The democratic, liberal and renewed right™ EVOPOLI announced that they would support Kast in the second round.

Also, some RN deputy said that Sichel was a Trojan Horse sent by the Concertación to destroy the right from within lol. Unfortunately for Sichel, and this is something that always seem to happen with him, despite his speech being good, all the coverage surrounding it is basically "the right in disarray".

Part of me imagines that Boric is going easy on Kast for now so he gets into the second round and the left can avoid a Naranjazo-style defeat to Provoste. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but it’s at least an understandable one.

I think this is also FA line of thinking, and I honestly consider it sickening bearing in mind that Kast is basically threatening to arrest them if he wins. Another reason to not even touch anything FA-related in the first round.

[kaoras]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

From the presidents from 1932 onwards onwards:

Arturo Alessandri Palma (1920-1925 and 1932-1938): Better known for first government, he was a reformist and clashed constantly with Congress and the parliamentary oligarchy, who refused to pass his social laws (such as 8 hours workday, legalization of unions, etc.). He is mostly remembered for these laws and the new constitution of 1925, which ended up passing after a military intervention that started the chaotic period of 1925-1932. His second government is mostly remembered for having brought order after that mess and for bringing the military back in line. He was clearly right-wing on this time and has some incidents of bloody repression such as the Masacre de Ranquil (Right-wing traditions have deep roots you see). Overall, positive image.

The Radical Governments (1938-1952) are overall fairly well regarded for their economic policies and social advances.

Pedro Aguirre Cerda (1938-1941): One of the most fondly remembered presidents. Famous for his industrialization and specially pro-education policies ("Gobernar es educar"). I think he was good but he is vastly overrated in popular culture He himself was very critical of his administration and felt that he wasn't able to improve the living conditions of the poor. But his Frente Popular did very well in the municipal and parliamentary elections of 1941, so at the time he was well regarded. Died from cancer.

Juan Antonio Ríos (1941-1946): Mainly positive because of his industrialization policies but he isn't widely discussed. Suffered a lot from the infighting of his coalition Alianza Democratica (successor of the Frente Popular) that was heavily defeated in the 1945 midterms, the last time the Right won a parliamentary majority without centrist parties. Also died early.

Gabriel Gonzalez Videla (1946-1952): The only thing he is remembered for is the infamous "Ley Maldita" (cursed law) that illegalized the Communist Party and the start of the Cold War. I think he is the only radical president that doesn't have a photo in the Radical Party headquarters and is basically the black sheep of the period.

Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931 and 1952-1958). He first ruled the country as a dictator until the great depression and won in 1952 with a populist and antipartisan platform. This is the first government my grandmother remembers and she HATES him. Said it was the worst government she lived under after Pinochet and Piñera, having to do long queues in the countryside to get a little bit of flour. Generally regarded as bad, and the ibañist forces were electorally obliterated by the end of his government.

Jorge Alessandri (1958-1964). Neutral, remembered for the natural disasters, the Mundial de Futbol, and the first antecedents of land reform. Again, not widely discussed, but my grandmother remember his ads about "El pan grande para Chile" (a big bread for Chile), saying that the bread she always had to eat was very small

Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964-1970). Very positive I would say, for his policies of land reform, chilenization of copper minds and people's participation. DC partisan will not stop singing praises for this government and basically say that this is the best government that Chile had. My grandmother say it was "good", though the DC electoral results at the end of the decade show that it didn't quite live to the expectations at the time, but nowadays is fondly remembered.

[kaoras]

Is Gabriel Boric moderate like Michele Bachelet?
I saw he defeated a more leftist candidate in the primary.

Boric is way to the left of Bachelet. There are actually only minor differences between Boric and Jadue platforms, but Boric rhetoric places heavy emphasis on Unity and presents himself as a moderate. He also, unlike Jadue, isn't a scary communist.

[kaoras]

It's nice to know your grandmother has such long lasting memories of Chilean history. Is Allende her favourite President?

Yes, I actually interviewed her about his memories for college, here's a transcript of what she said about Allende.

For me, the best government was Allende. In the Allende government, my children had milk, they had shoes. Although there are people who will never recognize those things, that was the most beautiful time of my life, where I had more possibilities to educate my children, where I had more opportunities to achieve things.

We did not lack anything, we dressed our children well, we did not lack food, we did not lack milk. I don't know why the rich found it bad, I suppose because of their own convenience. When they began to say that there were no things in the stores, those things were hidden by them. Any rightist hoarded things and sold them in their homes at the price they wanted.

Also at that time, my husband studied at INACAP [Technical high education], he got a degree as a construction manager and was studying at the university. But after the coup, he could no longer continue studying, because all those things were Allende's policies to help with the workers' education. But he managed to get his title of construction manager, which was better than being a simple carpenter.

[kaoras]

You people shouldn't freak out about the famously accurate Chilean Polls. If their track record doesn't convince you, you can google translate these articles which explain all their methodological problems and why they always suck:

https://terceradosis.cl/2021/10/20/el-lugar-donde-las-encuestas-pierden-la-seriedad/
https://terceradosis.cl/2021/10/21/marta-lagos-directora-de-mori-cerc-las-encuestas-en-chile-se-hacen-para-decir-lo-que-la-elite-quiere/

However, in all their awfulness we still shouldn't ignore them. Kast surge is continuing and he is probably in first place for the first round. The second thing is basically all Boric and Provoste fault because they still refuse to attack him in any meaningful way or do negative campaigns while all the other candidates trash them on their franjas.

In any case, leftists always make up their minds at the last minute (just check 2017 polls or whatever polling there was for municipal election), so I'm still not really worried. I do think that if things continue like this the right will get more than 1/3 of the chamber of deputies which will be very dissapointing.