Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

New poll!

And also, new UDD poll:

Boric 21,8%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 12,9%
Kast 10,7%
Parisi 7,7%
Lorenzini 5,1% (not running)
Ominami 4,1%
Ancalao 1,5% (not running)
Artés 1,4%

Lorenzini voters should go to Parisi. Second round results

Boric 31%-Sichel 30%
Sichel 32,8%-Provoste 27,1%
Boric 31,2%-Provoste 24%

[kaoras]

Countdown to Enriquez-O. dropping out commencing now… Wonder how much of his vote will actually switch to SRA YASNA.

I doubt Ominami is actually going to drop out. In the end it will be hard for him to reach 4% though.

Provoste is really polling very badly. Kast is very close to her numbers.

Kast voters are very likely to be overrepresented in online panels. Kast at around 10% seems right but it will not go up significantly when undecided make up their minds. He has a hard ceiling of 13-15% of open Pinochetists

[kaoras]

Also, CADEM, yay. After the forced dropouts:

Boric 20%
Sichel 20%
Provoste 13%
Kast 10%
Parisi 7%
Ominami 3%
Artés 1%

[kaoras]

Right, but the issue is if Provoste continues polling badly and her voters decide to vote tacitly in Boric. That could make Kast surpass her. But, it's still very early. A lot of water will still pass under the bridge.

Ominami seems like a very vain politician, with an ego the size of Jupiter.

Ominami seems to think he is destinied to be the Messiah of the left, yes. One of the worst politician out there and I'm glad I didn't fell for his performative Bacheletism in 2017.

About Provoste, it was already shocking for them for Kast to beat Goic in 2017, now it would be even worse. A possible silver lining for her is that NPS voters (what is left of them anyway), old and poor, are very likely to be undercounted in online panels. Some online polls don't even count the E segment which is the strongest for the traditional centre-left.

BTW, the campaign has been very boring outside the drama of the inscriptions /LDP. The only remarkable thing is Sichel showing the right true colours saying "you can't use the excuse of human rights to not keep public order". But outside some leftist outrage, it doesn't even matter because the rightist voters have shown time and time that they only care about human rights in Cuba and Venezuela.

[kaoras]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

[kaoras]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

Im guessing the right is also very unpopular with youths? Are there any age differences between mainstream conservatives and Kast supporters?

Data for the constituent elections:

18-29:
Apruebo Dignidad 21%
Lista del Pueblo 20%
Vamos x Chile (now CP+): 13%
Lista del Apruebo (now NPS): 11%
Ind. No Neutrales: 8%

30-49: registered AFTER automatic enrollment.
Apruebo Dignidad 19%
Lista del Pueblo 17%
Vamos x Chile: 15%
Lista del Apruebo: 13%

30-49: registered BEFORE automatic enrollment
Vamos x Chile: 25%
Apruebo Dignidad: 18%
Lista del Apruebo:15%
Lista del Pueblo: 11%

50-70
Vamos x Chile: 21%
Apruebo Dignidad 18%
Lista del Apruebo: 18%
Lista del Pueblo: 11%

70+:
Vamos x Chile: 35%
Lista del Apruebo: 22%
Apruebo Dignidad: 14%
Ind. No Neutrales: 9%
Lista del Pueblo: 6%

For the presidential primaries:



Yes, the right is doing very badly with younger voters. I have not seen data for other elections so is hard to get a sense if there's a meaningful difference between Kast voters and the rest of the right.

[kaoras]

I have been saying for months that people should not take Activa variations seriusly. The next poll will have a huge Boric collapse/ right surge. It works like clockwork:

Regarding Pulso Ciudadano/Activa:

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

This is just their normal effect on steroids. They are just not a good pollster.

Full results:

[kaoras]

In any case, if polls were like this in November I would vote Provoste to try to keep the right out.

[kaoras]

Criteria:

Boric 25%
Sichel 19% (-6)
Provoste 12% (+1)
Kast 8% (+1)
Parisi 6% (+3)
MEO 1% (new)
Artés 1% (new)

Constitutional Convention Approval 30%-47% dissaproval

Hilarious that La Lista del Pueblo has double proportion of people saying that they are doing good or very good (18%) than the right (9%), and the fieldwork was post-Ancalao inscription drama.

[kaoras]

Criteria:

Boric 25%
Sichel 19% (-6)
Provoste 12% (+1)
Kast 8% (+1)
Parisi 6% (+3)
MEO 1% (new)
Artés 1% (new)

Constitutional Convention Approval 30%-47% dissaproval

Hilarious that La Lista del Pueblo has double proportion of people saying that they are doing good or very good (18%) than the right (9%), and the fieldwork was post-Ancalao inscription drama.

Lmao, when was the last time the right was doing well? Four years ago?

Well, according to CADEM they have been the most popular coalition of the country since forever and still are .

Speaking seriously, probably since before the social uprising given that the opposition was in shambles (well, still is). Mind you that Piñera was already unpopular and the only thing that it had accomplished was kicking some Haitians and Venezuelans out of the country, but the right likely would have cruised to victory in mayoral elections on the basis of leftist division alone (And well, in the end, they weren't reduced to like, 20 mayorships, because of said division).

[kaoras]

Who do you think most "La Lista del Pueblo" leaders and congresspeople are going to support? Boric, Artés or NOTA?

There's quite a wide division among them. Most of the people who were opposed to having a presidential candidate will likely support Boric. The ones who pushed for that disaster will likely call for abstention or something like that since for their purist standards Boric is literally worse than Hitler (maye some of them support Artés, but abstention is likelier)

[kaoras]

Welp, Servel rejected over 200 candidacies for parliamentary elections, including 96 from Apruebo Dignidad and 90 from Partido Republicano, saying they didn't present all the documentations.

Basically, everyone involved says this is SERVEL fault and will appeal to the electoral court TRICEL. And yes, I give it a 99,9% chance this is SERVEL fault that will be corrected.

As a side note, I have never really got why people worship SERVEL that much, they always have this kind of problems and have extremely whimsical interpretations of law that seem politically motivated if anything (refused to give electoral roll for UC's primaries despite literally having it for sale, trying to reject Revolución Demócratica name because it had "Revolución" in it, saying it was technologically impossible to assign people to their nearest electoral precint...)

[kaoras]

Constitutional Convention Vice President Rodrigo Rojas, el Pelao Vade, revealed that he doesn’t and never did have cancer, but rather another illness that he didn’t reveal but says he lied about because it’s highly stigmatized. He claimed to have cancer because the treatment carries a similar financial cost and he had to explain his medical debt. I imagine he’ll resign from the convention.

That's shocking honestly. In his post on IG he didn't seemed eager to resign but I would guess there will be a lot of pressure, at least to resign to his vice-presidency. Lista del Pueblo can't catch a break.

EDIT: in an interview with La Tercera he said he IS resigning

[kaoras]

Constitutional Convention Vice President Rodrigo Rojas, el Pelao Vade, revealed that he doesn’t and never did have cancer, but rather another illness that he didn’t reveal but says he lied about because it’s highly stigmatized. He claimed to have cancer because the treatment carries a similar financial cost and he had to explain his medical debt. I imagine he’ll resign from the convention.

That's shocking honestly. In his post on IG he didn't seemed eager to resign but I would guess there will be a lot of pressure, at least to resign to his vice-presidency. Lista del Pueblo can't catch a break.

I saw him say something about reducing his role but not committing to fully resigning, but I honestly don’t see how he can continue - if only to not further harm the LdP and the convention’s image.

EDIt: makes sense. What’s the process for replacing him, just the next on the LDP list in his district?

If it follows the rules for congress, as independent he wouldn't be replaced. The convention would have 154 seats.

[kaoras]

Aaaaaand apparently MEO is out of the presidential race because of one of his judicial cases. Not many details, for now, will update as soon as I get the info.

EDIT: Okay, apparently you can put a reclamation asking for the exclusion of someone in the electoral roll, a pinochetist lawyer did that saying that despite being absolved for OAS case, being indicted is enough to exclude you and TRICEL accepted this reclamation, saying there was wide precedent for the suspension of the right to vote.

[kaoras]

CADEM:



Second Round:

[kaoras]

Data Influyes:



Kast in double digits and being very clear to Provoste seems like a consistent story.

In other news, several members of PS are refusing to back Provoste and support Boric, including deputy and Allende's grandaughter Maya Fernandez, deputy Manuel Monsalve (campaign manager of Paula Narvaez) and ex minister Mahmud Aleuy. Those aren't exactly nobodies so it could be very hard for the PS directive to take meaningful action agains them. My senator Alfonso De Urresti also refused to say if he backed Provoste. Is clear that the party will be very split. EDIT: They have denied this.

[kaoras]

I’ve seen maybe two second round polls (one was Boric 51-49 Sichel, one had various matchups that I don’t remember). Is it not usual to do runoff scenarios along with the basic first round polls?

Cadem above has it. But no, is not that usual because many pollsters don't even bother trying to do proper electoral polls. They ask electoral questions in their monthly panel polling with the disclaimer that they are not technically meant to be predictive and leave it at that. Because polls have been wrong so often they cover their bases.

Chilean polling has only gone downhill since I have memory. You used to have lot of polls commissioned by news organizations that not only covered the presidential race but also municipal elections. They stopped doing that after 2012 debacle (when they failed to predict the left victory). Then CADEM appeared with their weekly polling that dominated the agenda but even they have grown even more cautious with their public polls given their constant errors and now they don't even have likely voters. The situation got even worse after the 2017 first-round debacle (Piñera overpolled, Sanchez underpolled).

The situation is that basically, no one wants to pay for proper electoral polls, so there isn't any quality stuff. Of course at private level there are tons of polls but very few get leaked.

[kaoras]

TRICEL ruled that Ominami will be on the ballot in November, this is definitive so I re-added him to the poll.

[kaoras]

Now it is the 48th anniversary of the coup d'etat against Salvador Allende in 1973, and of course the main Chilean newspapers and TV stations are having special coverage on the twin tower attacks. The good news is that La Red tv stations broke the censorship pact of the main tv channels and showed the documentary "La Batalla de Chile", with record-breaking ratings for the station. La Red in the last year has positioned itself as a left-wing channel, a first in Chile where you can reasonably argue that all tv stations are right-leaning, a move that has resulted in harassment from Piñera's Government.

The main presidential candidates made several statements.
Yasna Provoste said:

"Never again human rights violations in Chile, neither before nor now. May the political and social unity of the people never be broken again. (...) My tribute to the memory of President Allende".

Boric:

At the Museum of Memory we remember President Salvador Allende and the Chilean people. Without memory there is no future. Truth, justice and reparation to the victims of human rights violations

Sichel:

Chileans want the future to be much better than the present and that we do not stay stuck in the past. It depends on everyone

Kast hasn't said anything

Also, I want to congratulate the Chilean Right for their astounding advances on human rights. They are truly fully reformed since the Pinochet era. They went from being responsible for murder, torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions during Pinochet to ... eh, being responsible for excessive or unnecessary use of force that led to arbitrary deprivation of life and injuries, torture and illtreatment, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions during Piñera.

[kaoras]

Some big company (Carozzi) has pulled ads from La Red for airing La batalle de Chile, lol. Incredible documentary, btw, and all three parts are available in full on YouTube.

Sadly, this is nothing new nor surprising. The businessman Juan Sutil also pulled his ads from CNN Chile over the coverage of the social uprising in 2019. There was a lot of pressure on TVN to not air the documentary "Chicago Boys" a few years ago, which was a problem since they had bought it and were obligated to show it by contract, so they did so... at 2 AM in the morning. And those are just the public-known examples, the reality is that the business elite has most of the press hostage (try to look out for this news in La Tercera or El Mercurio/Emol for example...), and the coup and the dictatorship are particularly delicate themes given the intimate relationship of the elite with Pinochet. La Red can get away with these things because their owner is a businessman from Miami who gives 0 fü* cks about all of this and is just shamelessly exploiting the uncatered left wing niche.

[kaoras]

Presidential debate in two days (well, tomorrow). Some debt scandal involving Franco Parisi (silly man). Also they’re attempting to facilitate a process for members of the constitutional convention to resign so the convention can really turn the page on the Rojas Vade scandal.

Oh, it gets better, he said that he requested "political asylum" in USA because of political persecution and that Chile was not a democracy (i.e. I really don't want to pay the child support that I ow) Is not impossible that he will never put a foot in the country.

I guess this is good news for Sichel, who is going down in the latest polls for reasons I don't really understand. Also, Kast and Provoste are basically in an statistical tie for third place.

[kaoras]

The first debate had mediocre ratings (16 points) but it still dominates the coverage. The main takeaway is that Boric and Kast were the main winners. Personally I was fairly unimpressed with Boric performance but it's seems that most people think he did well, and made no major mistakes, consolidating his lead. Kast was by far the best performer and constantly attacked Boric.

Sichel was meh, Artés is honestly endearing for us left-wingers and Provoste was fairly bad. She lost her temper quickly, attacked a lot but her attacks didn't quite land and will mostly be remembered by her gaffe of citing Wikipedia.

[kaoras]

Could you go into detail on Ártes’s performance?

Oh, you would have liked him a lot. He said he was the only one proposing a different system, socialism, called Boric a "bourgeoise liberal", had many different nationalization proposals and my favorite thing, asked Sichel to say with energy that he was right-wing, not "centre right". For what is worth, the debate did make me consider protest-voting him since I really don't want to vote for Boric in the first round.

[kaoras]

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left did not continue to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Oh yeah, what human rights abuses did the Left commit during Allende? The closest thing you could think of is the MIR which was not part of UP and regularly opposed Allende. And how exactly did the left commit human rights abuses when it was not in power?

Because you are not seriously thinking that throwing a rock to riot-geared police counts as human right abuse, aren't you? (or that the protest was an exclusively left-wing movement for that matter) There are standards for these things, that's why not every single murder in the world is processed at the Haye.

Also, is fairly damming for the Chilean right that even you can't come with a better defence than whataboutism that isn't even really true.