I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.
What about Stark County? Doesn't it have a bellwether reputation?
Well it did until 2004:
Kerry: 50.59%
Bush: 48.93%
Which is almost the exact opposite of the statewide result. Also, if you add Nader to Gore in 2000, Gore wins Stark by about 1% but still loses statewide by the same margin. Stark is moving slowly to the left which is why OH-16 is going to be one of the hottest House contests next year.
Also, I choose Scioto and Pike because the Southeast is the region most prone to swinging back and forth between parties. This is also why Zack Space (D) OH-18 isn't as vulnerable as Republicans would like to think he is. OH-18 contains enough Democrat friendly ground for Space to be re-elected comfortably in 2008.
I was originally going to choose Ross County because the premiere Ohio bellwether city (and former state capital) Chillicothe is located there but the county as a whole isn't a very good bellwether.
