Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
Posts: 4,531
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96
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« on: November 24, 2022, 11:02:52 PM » |
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I don't have a good answer to the question but something I found interesting was that in the 4 most recent presidential and senate elections (8 races total) the winning candidate has only exceeded 50% of the vote 3 times.
Another interesting tidbit was how consistent the margin in NC has been relative to the national popular vote in presidential years
2008 - 6.93 more R than the US
2012 - 5.9 more R than the US
2016 - 5.75 more R than the US
2020 - 5.8 more R than the US
So to me it looks like Dems can only win here when the national popular vote is tipped more heavily in their favor as it uniquely was in 2008.
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