At least I trust the Arizona polls. If a bunch of polls show Biden up a couple of points in AZ, he's probably up a couple of points there. If a bunch of polls show Biden up high single digits in WI, they're basically just daring Democrats to get excited so we can have the rug pulled out from us at the last minute.
Thats why I take the errors in 2016 into account (and look at the actual % rather than margin) for a lot of these polls rather than just taking them at face value as some do or automatically shifting everything towards Trump as I've seen others do.
It seems the purple or almost-purple Sunbelt states in general have a tendency to underestimate Dems, Florida being the odd exception (though
nothing relating to Florida is done right.)
