AZ-OHPI: Biden +4

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1292823312297611267?s=21

[SaneDemocrat]

Arizona is either underestimating Dems or is the biggest surprise of the cycle.

Who had Wisconsin voting significantly to the left of Arizona?

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona is either underestimating Dems or is the biggest surprise of the cycle.

Who had Wisconsin voting significantly to the left of Arizona?

1. Dems usually are underestimated in AZ polls, but not as dramatically as in NV and TX.

2. The sunbelt states have more voters locked in for both parties and can generally be expected to swing less than the nation when one candidate has a large NPV lead in the polls (as Biden currently does).

[pppolitics]

It was Biden +5 last month.

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200706_AZPOP/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20--%20Presidential%20Toplines.pdf

Trump momentum! /sarcasm

[Sir Mohamed]

Good poll for Biden. But it seems like the state has moved little over recent 12 months. Biden was been slightly ahead before the pandemic bump, and it hasn't changed that much over recent months. I think Biden will win AZ by somewhere around 3 pts.

[BlueSwan]

Meh, I'll take it.

[Person Man]

Good poll for Biden. But it seems like the state has moved little over recent 12 months. Biden was been slightly ahead before the pandemic bump, and it hasn't changed that much over recent months. I think Biden will win AZ by somewhere around 3 pts.

It will either be 2016 pres or 2018 senate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Fits the current average like bread and butter

[BobbieMac]

Puts Biden at around +10 nationally on UNS

[Badger]

Polls keep seeming to show that Arizona might not be ready for True purple State designation. Even if Democrats poll low here compared to election results, Arizona still going to vote a couple points to the right of the nation it appears.

[wbrocks67]

AZ polls also underestimate Dems too, can't forget that.

Not to mention, this particular pollster also heavily underestimated them in 2018 too.

[Annatar]

AZ polls also underestimate Dems too, can't forget that.

Not to mention, this particular pollster also heavily underestimated them in 2018 too.

I wouldn’t say it was a huge underestimate, OHPI had Mcsally up 1% in their last poll, she lost by 2.4%, a 3.4% miss, Des Moines had a bigger miss in Iowa, had Hubbell up 2%, lost by 2.7%, a 4.7% miss and a lot of other pollsters, Fox News, NBC/Marist, Quinnipiac were off by huge margins, even double digits in multiple races.

[wbrocks67]

AZ polls also underestimate Dems too, can't forget that.

Not to mention, this particular pollster also heavily underestimated them in 2018 too.

I wouldn’t say it was a huge underestimate, OHPI had Mcsally up 1% in their last poll, she lost by 2.4%, a 3.4% miss, Des Moines had a bigger miss in Iowa, had Hubbell up 2%, lost by 2.7%, a 4.7% miss and a lot of other pollsters, Fox News, NBC/Marist, Quinnipiac were off by huge margins, even double digits in multiple races.

This particular pollster though is R-leaning in history. A 3.4% miss would give Biden +7.4 in AZ, which would be pretty huge.

[Crumpets]

At least I trust the Arizona polls. If a bunch of polls show Biden up a couple of points in AZ, he's probably up a couple of points there. If a bunch of polls show Biden up high single digits in WI, they're basically just daring Democrats to get excited so we can have the rug pulled out from us at the last minute.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If this is considered underwhelming, I'll gladly take it!

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/status/1292885930840391680

[Yellowhammer]

AZ is safe D

[Lisa's voting Biden]

AZ is safe D

*Lean D

[Hammy]

At least I trust the Arizona polls. If a bunch of polls show Biden up a couple of points in AZ, he's probably up a couple of points there. If a bunch of polls show Biden up high single digits in WI, they're basically just daring Democrats to get excited so we can have the rug pulled out from us at the last minute.

Thats why I take the errors in 2016 into account (and look at the actual % rather than margin) for a lot of these polls rather than just taking them at face value as some do or automatically shifting everything towards Trump as I've seen others do.

It seems the purple or almost-purple Sunbelt states in general have a tendency to underestimate Dems, Florida being the odd exception (though nothing relating to Florida is done right.)

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Titanium Lean D

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

At least I trust the Arizona polls. If a bunch of polls show Biden up a couple of points in AZ, he's probably up a couple of points there. If a bunch of polls show Biden up high single digits in WI, they're basically just daring Democrats to get excited so we can have the rug pulled out from us at the last minute.

Yes, I am much more confident in polls that show Biden +3/4 in Arizona than I am in polls that show Biden +8 in Wisconsin or +4 in Ohio.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arizona is either underestimating Dems or is the biggest surprise of the cycle.

Who had Wisconsin voting significantly to the left of Arizona?

Me. I always insisted, even before the election turned in Biden's favor around late April, that Arizona would flip after Wisconsin. I do think both are flipping though, at least at this point. Actually Florida may even flip before Arizona.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Arizona is either underestimating Dems or is the biggest surprise of the cycle.

Who had Wisconsin voting significantly to the left of Arizona?

Me. I always insisted, even before the election turned in Biden's favor around late April, that Arizona would flip after Wisconsin. I do think both are flipping though, at least at this point. Actually Florida may even flip before Arizona.

Nope. I can't even remember the last time a Democrat underperformed polling in Arizona. If Biden has a lead in Arizona polling, it's probably safe to assume that he is actually leading there, compared to say, a similar polling lead in Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa, or Ohio.

[MT Treasurer]

This is a Romney +9/Trump +3 state where Republicans have been reliant on winning the fastest-growing county in the country which contains 60% of the state's population and is only slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state. Why some people are surprised by Biden's strength in AZ is beyond me.

[Sbane]

This is a Romney +9/Trump +3 state where Republicans have been reliant on winning the fastest-growing county in the country which contains 60% of the state's population and is only slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state. Why some people are surprised by Biden's strength in AZ is beyond me.

And most of the population is urban and suburban. Very few people live in the rural areas.