GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7 (user search)
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  GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7  (Read 4471 times)
Hammy
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« on: July 20, 2020, 03:19:11 PM »
« edited: July 20, 2020, 03:24:31 PM by Hammy »

Trafalgar quickly losing whatever shred of credibility they had left. How the mighty have fallen!

They are very good with certain states, and 2018 shows that. But Georgia is clearly not one of those states.

Though Trump has also saturated TV with ads claiming Biden wants to eliminate the police and showing a recorded line, all while images of (of course) blacks with fires in the background flash on the screen, clearly intended to scare whites, so who knows.
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Hammy
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2020, 06:35:15 PM »

"Biden is up by 15"

Polls also show Trump up in North Carolina and Georgia.

Sorry for not believing the national numbers.

Trafalgar has done quite poorly outside of the upper Rust Belt and Florida.
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Hammy
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2020, 01:32:11 AM »

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.


Your second point contracts your first--either they're a good pollster who sees things other's don't, or they're making the same mistakes everyone else is.  And you're finding literally one example for each other pollster which again contradicts your point, given Trafalgar has only done well with a few specific states.
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Hammy
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2020, 04:42:38 PM »

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

The gubernatorial race begs to differ: Kemp won 73% of whites, not 90%.  And Kemp was less unpopular when he ran than Trump currently is.
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