Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[wbrocks67]

While I agree with the notion that Biden definitely wants to frame/shake up the race as soon as possible given the dynamics, I don't necessarily believe it's entirely b/c he's behind - Trump has been going off about wanting even *MORE* debates - including one every month for the rest of the cycle. That doesn't scream "Trump is so confident!!" to me either

[wbrocks67]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

Oh right I see. Though I feel like Biden has to accept it otherwise Trump would have an easy out to turn down the other ones.

I mean, then that's on Trump then though. Trump will be seen as weak as backing out. Objectively, Biden was really smart with this and Trump played right into his hand. There's no reason to do a Fox debate at this point, or even a 3rd at all now that Trump has agreed to Biden's terms.

Honestly, the biggest winner may be all of us since it appears (need confirmation??) that under Biden's terms, there is no audience in any of these.

[wbrocks67]

I think Biden's team's view of this is that while they could definitely be doing better in polls, this race is going to be the longest of all time and people really need to realize sooner than later that this is the matchup whether they like it or not, so we might as well get on with this and start framing it around real life, and the debate forces Trump to be in the spotlight and to answer (or not answer) questions

In the end, the debate just solidifies the matchup and makes it real for most voters, especially the stakes. I think the Biden teams frustration up to this point is that there are some voters who are not tuned in at all and/or not taking it seriously enough

[wbrocks67]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

[wbrocks67]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I would argue that both have a lot riding on it, but Trump really does. Trump has a very tiny and tenuous polling lead right now and it's literally hinging on polling saying infrequent voters are voting for him - any large scale television audience that shows that he's the same person from 2016 and 2020 shows all those Biden 2020 and infrequent voters that Trump is the wrong choice yet again.

Trump is also setting the bar for Biden extremely low once again saying he's the worst debater of all time on Truth Social

[wbrocks67]

It is a complete farce for democracy if RFK isn't included. I don't like the guy but with his polling and ballot standing he should be on.

He's not averaging 15%, he would not be included even by the official Commissions standards

[wbrocks67]

I think it's pretty clear Biden has an easier time looking good in this debate; similarly to SOTU as long as he projects a strong competent vibe it'll ease voter fears and boost his standing. Of course any gaffes might be damaging but that's the risk you have to take, not debating is a losing look for both.

Trump-wise I think an underrated factor is this potentially (probably?) will be his chance to make his case post NY trial conviction and win back some of the public opinion, if he can play it off. Like others in this thread have stated if Trump can stick to a message of "Were you better off in 2016-2019?" and try to lean more on the humor he can come off looking decent.

The good news for both candidates is that June is still an eternity away from the election in average American minds, and barring some immensely damning soundbite probably won't move the needle much for anyone besides donors and hyper political junkies.

That wouldn't work without a live audience to feed off of though.

[wbrocks67]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  Biden wanting fewer/earlier debates is a tacit admission that he wants them to matter as little as possible by election day.

You're assuming what Trump thinks though in that scenario. Trump is not that smart, and he's not looking to do a debate *every month* just for that reason alone.

[wbrocks67]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

Which seems extremely unlikely. Where's the other 3 polls for RFK over 15% though? Are we counting the entire cycle or is there a time frame? He's only been above 15 in one recently (Marquette out today?)

[wbrocks67]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

Which seems extremely unlikely. Where's the other 3 polls for RFK over 15% though? Are we counting the entire cycle or is there a time frame? He's only been above 15 in one recently (Marquette out today?)

The window opened on March 13. From a quick look through the polling databases, it looks like he hit the mark in a Quinnipiac poll and a CNN poll from April.

I think he will hit the polling threshold but I agree that ballot access will probably keep him out in the end.

I think it'll depend on how quickly states approve his signatures. According to Wikipedia, he's currently at 223 electors counting states that he has submitted signatures to.

Most of those states have not solidifed their ballot yet and likely won't before June 30.

[wbrocks67]

Both bozos will back out if Kennedy's let it. Even if Kennedy sucks, both parties are bipartisan in their efforts to never let a third candidate participate.

Actually, Trump's already said he's fine with it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/trump-debates-rfk-jr.html

So I guess there's a scenario where we get a repeat of the 1980 Reagan-Anderson Debate.

Why would anyone trust anything that man says?