Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Alsobrooks underperformed in PG County tonight. Trone has got some high profile endorsement from the county like the county DA and local state senator and a couple other local pols. I've read about some discontent over her record in the county and its playing out in people who work closely with her backing someone outside their county.

She's already up 40 in the early count.

[wbrocks67]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

[wbrocks67]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

What's the theory on eday vote being better? (Not disagreeing just curious) In GOP primaries it is usually the Trumpier, has there been any thoughts o the type of Dem candidates.

In a state like MD it is the more African American of the piles. And the Ev is more likely to be politically engaged (DC) folks who are for Trone.

Trone won the overall mail thats currently counted (a smaller amount will be counted later) 55-42, and lost in-person EV 53-43. That should give you an idea of  the direction of travel.

Alsobrooks has also gained a bit more momentum with ads and surrogates out for her in the past few weeks, much moreso than when ballots first went out too.

[wbrocks67]

Why would any D partisan want Alsobrooks to prevail? We are going to have to light millions on fire to defend the seat when Trone could light up his own cash.

Because Trone is just a horrific candidate and is just trying to buy his way into the seat? He's already had numerous gaffes over the last few weeks and is just extremely tone-deaf. Alsobrooks actually feels like she's earned the seat and has worked hard.

Also, no, this seat is not going to cost Ds millions.

[wbrocks67]

Given Alsobrooks appears to now be up with most of the early vote in, I think she seems like the clear favorite likely given the e-day vote seems likely to be even better for her?

Trone is the favorite IMHO. Alsobrooks won the early in person early vote but that's all in. Trone is winning the absentee vote and there is a lot of it still out and it's expected to be the biggest slice of the vote pie.

https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2024/primary_results/gen_results_2024_2.html

Yes, and we're still waiting for basically all of e-day, where Alsobrooks appears to be doing even better than early vote in a lot of places so far. I also don't expect Trone to do as well in the late mail as he did in the early mail.

[wbrocks67]

Hogan's numbers are weak against a very weak opponent. He is posting tepid numbers in most of the conservative counties.

Was just gonna say, him only getting 65% of the primary against a bunch of nobodies is pretty bad for him, given his like 75% approval rating statewide lol

[wbrocks67]

Does Hogan dip below 60% with election day complete? I guess he would stay afloat though with the late VBM, but it looks kind of dicey.

[wbrocks67]

So glad Alsobrooks seems to be winning. I'm glad being rich can't buy you a Senate seat and Alsobrooks seems like a genuinely good person. This and Kim in NJ will be huge wins for the Senate.

The new class of Dems is really refreshing - Rochester, Kim, Alsobrooks, etc

[wbrocks67]

Although we didn't have much late polling, it's clear Alsobrooks got late momentum and seems to be likely to outperform Emerson's final poll.

It's almost as if early polls are not super indicative sometimes!!!

[wbrocks67]

I am perfectly fine Senator Alsobrooks but the only drawback to her winning is Democrats will have to invest in her campaign. So be it, put me down $20.

Yeah I completely disagree. The Emerson poll (Emerson is still Emerson, but...) shows Hogan's novelty has already worn off. I imagine when partisanship kicks in, it won't be close at all. Hogan can barely scrape together 60% of his own party. People in MD may like him, but it seems they truly don't really care *that* much about him to vote for him in a senate race.

[wbrocks67]

AP has called for Alsobrooks btw

[wbrocks67]

I'm shocked Dunn appears to be tanking in MD-03; these resist lib candidates have all this cash, what are they doing with it??

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason, however, why no VBM has been counted today and it's nearly 6pm est

[wbrocks67]

There's no reason, however, why no VBM has been counted today and it's nearly 6pm est

It is now noon on Thursday and we still are no closer to more votes. If MD was a swing state, they'd be excoriated right now