PA-SEN: NYT/Siena Casey +5

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

[wbrocks67]

Casey fav: 51/33 (+18)
McCormick fav: 45/25 (+20)

Fetterman fav: 49/41 (+8)
Shapiro approval: 59/24 (+35)

In LV, Casey down to +2, 46-44. I would imagine though that's due to the Hispanic sample, which is very low, and has McCormick winning by by 27% (50-23) lol

If Dave McCormick has a better favorability than Bob Casey, then I'm the pope.

Yeah... those #s feel very Emerson-ish. 70% of PA does not have an opinion on McCormick lol

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Casey being only +2 compared to most other polls we've gotten makes me continue to think that the Siena state polling is underrating Dems chances quite a lot (right now)

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Casey being only +2 compared to most other polls we've gotten makes me continue to think that the Siena state polling is underrating Dems chances quite a lot (right now)

What final result do you expect here? I'd say Casey wins 51-46%. So, similar to 2022.

Yeah, right now my gut says 5-7%, something like 51-46 or 52-45