March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how does better in GA. I imagine it will be Biden, since there is no Uncommitted or Philips (?) on the ballot, while Haley is still on the ballot with Trump.

[wbrocks67]

I guess right now I'm thinking for GA:

Biden 92%
Williamson 4%
Phillips 3%
Other 1%

Trump 86%
Haley 12%
Others 2%

Curious what the Haley protest vote will be.

[wbrocks67]

NYT link for tonight

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/12/us/elections/results-georgia-republican-presidential-primary.html

[wbrocks67]

Not that any of these primaries matter anymore but why is it easy to find the Republican presidential results on the NYT page but not the Democratic ones. You can google to find the Democratic pages but they are not linked from the main pages anywhere that I can see. Same last week. Old man rant over. Link to Democratic results in Georgia.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/12/us/elections/results-georgia-democratic-presidential-primary.html

Agreed; this was really annoying last week and they're doing the same this week. Even when you go to state results and then the state, it only shows the GOP results. Idk why they're doing this

[wbrocks67]

There's still some vote to count in Washington so Uncommitted may end up gaining a point or two, but yeah, given the continued amount of stories around it, it flopped pretty hard in one of the states where it should've theoretically been doing better.

GA - not too many surprises here, it's wild that the black voter narrative keeps taking hold while they are Biden's strongest soldiers in these primaries, with 96% in SC and 95% in GA.

I'll also say, yes, most of Haley's voters were pre-election day, but let's be honest, even when GA early voting started, it was clear Haley was not winning and it was essentially a Trump protest vote. The fact that even with election day vote being largely for Trump, that Haley still got nearly 15% is kind of telling. The fact that that is being tampered down by many in the press while Uncommitted at single digits in most states continues to be propped up is completely unsurprising.

[wbrocks67]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

[wbrocks67]

Just going to cross-post from the primary comparison thread:

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

Not sure who decided to suddenly invent this “primary turnout doesn’t matter” myth. It was the strongest early predictor of Obama’s win in 2008 and was superior to polling in predicting 2020, once both races were uncontested.

I don’t think caucuses are the same, or primaries on different dates or in different environments should be compared, but Georgia isn’t that, and Biden got flattened. He has an evident enthusiasm gap with every type of voter and is the underdog.

PA 2012 primary electorate: R+14 (57-43) - incumbent D vs. front-runner R
PA 2012 general election: D+5 (52-47)

Not really a great barometer with an incumbent president and an event somewhat competitive/contested election on the other side! (if Haley had stayed in the race, I imagine she probably would've ended up with closer to 20% total)

[wbrocks67]

Even with the "Uncommitted" folks doing a blank ballot, Biden still gets 93% in GA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1767941695063138763

[wbrocks67]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

Nearly all of the Haley Vote in GA and WA was cast before she dropped out. It was negligible in MS and HI. Republicans are unifying remarkably fast.

Biden still did better in the GA primary overall than Trump did on election day in GA.

[wbrocks67]

From Super Tuesday, but something that seems rather underdiscussed is that the GOP right now may have lower turnout (or just at parity) with CA 2020's primary... despite that year Trump being the incumbent and this year having semi-opposition in Haley

2020 GOP CA primary: 2.431M (Trump 2.242M)
2024 GOP CA primary: 2.321M (Trump 1.837M)

CA is at 92% in, so it might inch closer, but not sure if there is 100K left in the GOP primary though.

Trump assured to at least get like 300,000 less votes than he got in 2020 as the incumbent president with nominal opposition.

[wbrocks67]

I can't read the tea leaves concerning the general election - we're still a lifetime away from November in the realm of political discourse - but Trump resoundingly winning the GOP primary really does seem to be a consequence of Democrats' overreach. I'm the black sheep in my family. I'm the only person who has ever *not* voted for a Democrat candidate, and even my family has been turned off by the Democrats trying to throw everything at the wall to stop Trump. My family was willing to believe that he should be criminally charged in Florida and Georgia, but the sheer number of trials and then the efforts to remove him from the ballot prematurely really bolstered Trump's sympathy among many people. Just last year DeSantis was a viable contender for the presidency, but the Democrats' actions have really unified the GOP/right-leaning independents behind Trump. These actions are now viewed as an existential threat to the vast majority of people who do not identify with the Democrat Party, and as aforementioned, that doesn't exclusively mean MAGA Republicans. I believe even Nikki would have fared better had the Democrats not overstretched. I'm seeing a lot of heterodox personalities concerned by the clear use of the legal system to try to influence the November election.

Let's be honest. We know the White House and other partisan actors are trying to influence the November election. Everyone is basically admitting this on all sides. We know there's coordination going on between the White House, prosecutors, judges, and pundits. The Fulton County office is probably the worst example of this coordination - caught literally billing for their coordination with political allies in both the executive and legislature, but it goes beyond that. Court reporters months ago confirmed the DC judge overseeing Jan. 6th trial was in contact with NYC, and despite the defense's objections, not sharing the content of those communications. I'm now wondering if this tactic backfired. If they could rewind the clock, the Democrats would be better off coordinating one or two rock solid legal disputes with the most upstanding legal teams they could muster. The civil trials and ballot efforts in particular REALLY hurt their public perception to the point even progressive independent outlets like the Young Turks are hot and bothered.

I'm sure I'll get criticized for saying all of this, but I'm a rather balanced individual. These are just my observations. A lot of Republicans two years ago were open to the idea of moving past Trump. Now abandoning Trump is essentially unquestionable to 80% of the Republican voting base: they view the sheer scale of these actions as attacks on their own families and citizenship.

In 2016 the Clinton campaign reached out to NBC and CNN to elevate Trump because they viewed him as the easiest opponent for the GE. If Trump does somehow manage to win again, the Dems' hubris is once again at fault.

Yeah no, this is not on Dems. Dems literally had nothing to do with Trump running again and him becoming the nominee. That is literally all on Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone posted the Dems Abroad results?

https://www.democratsabroad.org/gpp_provisional_results_release

Biden 80, Uncommitted 13, Williamson 7. Biden gets all delegates because no one else broke 15.

Pretty surprising, figured Uncommitted would be higher here b/c they're usually among the most left.